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How long do you think the downturn will last?





mk12327
It seems to be a tough question for many of us. In fact, I believe none of us would have a exact answer. Even experts and experienced economists have conflicting views as to how long the economic downturn would last. But I would like to hear some speculations.

Personally, I believe in the cyclic motion in economics. Every few years, the direction of the market would turn. Last few years had seen some great economic booms and this downturn seems too natural to happen, though too early and unexpected. My view would be a few years before it rebound back to upward direction. 2015?
cyberbuddy
i think the present situation will last for a short time because after this year investors will invest with and also the the entire market will be see a focused attitude towards the market growth and yes these situation according to me should arise because if such situation doesn't arises then the market will never grow



thank u
TrueFact
Well, nothing last forever CyberBuddy. This crisis won't last forever. Anyways, according the news and the support from the EU and the probability of the IB support as well in the USA and the rising markets in Asia, it may last for a couple of months.

Lucky me I haven't invest yet in the USA markets. Even though the markets in the middle east are going down.

Good luck everyone
TrueFact
LumberJack
I think the US should start seeing some gains late 2009. However, this is of course dependent on whether or not governments (both US and Internationally) make the situation worse...
smasha
It will last a few years if all the problems get sorted. Looks more like we are just going to make the same mistakes over again..
indianinworld
Embarassed


What same mistakes ??
WhistleTurning
The cureent so called crisis will end quicker if the media were to be gagged and stopped from fuelling the panic people seem to be getting worked up to becomming.It is all scare mongering. Let the wheelers and dealewr sort themselves out and the banks take a step back to doing good oldfashioned approaches to their industry. Wjat do most people care about a companies share value going down, if the company is still making money and providing jobs
raaeft1
I feel that the downturn is more of a mental phenomenon than anything else. Once we start buying things, I am not saying luxuries. I am talking about the middle class. One they start buying what is needed or required; demand will gradually pick up.
Moreover, I feel the downturn can be tackled if there is more of Government spending on infrastructure building .
LumberJack
It will recover, it is pretty much fortune telling to be able to call when. It depends on so many things, and there are many situations which can prolong this for another year or two.
slashnburn99
Everything runs on a `10 year cycle

we are at 90 degrees now on a circle

From 180 degrees onwards starts to get better

If you want to make a start of your own business with a great idea now is the time
HoytJolly
I think that the upturn will happen when a new technology comes around that gets everyone excited and changes the economic battlefield.
mk12327
Hmm... Actually this post is already quite dated. At that time when i started this post, it was during the US subprime mortgage crisis. There was signs of recovery over the past few years but unfortunately, markets got hit again by the Greece debt issue, causing the Euro crisis.

However, it seems that Asia is set to the road of recovery with many countries still growing its economy. I guess that is due to the shift of economic reliance from the US to developing Asian countries such as India and China. What's ahead is still hard to tell.
standready
I think the US is in for a "double dip" as many just are not spending thinking prices are going to fall even more. "Why would I want to buy today when the item will cost less tomorrow". I personally think we hit bottom but crawling out of the hole is going to take awhile with occasional slips.
mk12327
It seems like things are indeed moving very slowly in terms of economic recovery. Many countries are currently relying on the growing asia to compensate for the sluggish US and Europe economies. But even if so, growth in asia are expected to slow down as well according to report recently.

Although the recent World Cup did help move focus away from the unhappiness, unemployment rate still remain rather high in US and that the Europe crisis does not seem to be fully solved yet. A long wait is expected to come before we could reach the level of prosperity we used to have.
standready
I was out shopping (actually just looking) today and I noticed that the shelves in many stores still have a reduced quantity of product. I am not talking about items being sold down. Stores have not fully stocked in months! Even food stores have reduced quantity. That has to be an indication of how retailers feel about the economy.
deanhills
standready wrote:
I was out shopping (actually just looking) today and I noticed that the shelves in many stores still have a reduced quantity of product. I am not talking about items being sold down. Stores have not fully stocked in months! Even food stores have reduced quantity. That has to be an indication of how retailers feel about the economy.
I've noticed the same. Even with www.iherb.com. They don't have unlimited stocks anymore. Almost regularly popular items are "out of stock". Ditto in the Middle East too, particularly in Dubai. The fancy important items have either been discontinued or not replaced, and fining spare parts, which have always been a head ache anyway, is now completely impossible.
mk12327
deanhills wrote:
standready wrote:
I was out shopping (actually just looking) today and I noticed that the shelves in many stores still have a reduced quantity of product. I am not talking about items being sold down. Stores have not fully stocked in months! Even food stores have reduced quantity. That has to be an indication of how retailers feel about the economy.
I've noticed the same. Even with www.iherb.com. They don't have unlimited stocks anymore. Almost regularly popular items are "out of stock". Ditto in the Middle East too, particularly in Dubai. The fancy important items have either been discontinued or not replaced, and fining spare parts, which have always been a head ache anyway, is now completely impossible.


This does not look like a good sign. However, it seems to me that the problem is not really happening in some countries. Asian countries in particular. Most Asian countries are nearly recovered already, with some are even on growth currently. What intrigues me is why is that so? Is it due to prudent government spending, countries' economic structure, population, buying power, or some other reasons?
deanhills
mk12327 wrote:
Asian countries in particular. Most Asian countries are nearly recovered already, with some are even on growth currently. What intrigues me is why is that so? Is it due to prudent government spending, countries' economic structure, population, buying power, or some other reasons?
Perhaps all of the reasons you mentioned. As well as the fact that the average age of the populations in Asia is much younger than the US. The US has a population with a high percentage of people who are close to retirement or retired. Those who contribute actively to the economy therefore have a far greater burden to carry of looking after all of those people. For example there would be a greater percentage of cancer, and all of the chronic diseases of those who are older. They probably need plenty of young, productive and ambitious immigrants.
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