Globally every country is experiencing the recession phase due to global credit crunch.
Lets discuss who is impacted the most. What will be the outcome of this in the coming years.
In my opinion 2 years will be kind of minimum, of course it depends what you consider the end of recession, is it just the time the indicators turn green again or is it the time to fully recover from the status before the recession. Because the second case is of course much longer.
Who is impacted the most: as usual people and countries that are the poorest.
The rich countries will suffer a bit but for the countries that not so rich they will miss investments from richer countries and will have a relative stronger impact on them.
Same thing for people: if you are already at the limit, to get less is very bad.
I think everyone that has money invested will suffer the most. I think the poor that already know how to survive without much money and really don't have much invested will suffer the least.
Take me and my family for example, we have very little money, but are completely prepared for the end of our developed society. We have land, we have farm animals, we have a woodstove, a garden, and lots of other things ready to go for when we need to survive.
There's at least a year left.
I personally think this is the bottom -- we will grow again around next year spring after the second wave of the housing market crash ends. By late 2009, we should be on our way.
The sad part is that the banks that started this were a very small part of the economy. It was election year political fear mongering that shook inverstor confidence. This didn't have to happen.
All countries are facing same problem, Here in India, Government is announcing that we are stable We are stable, share market is coming down day by day and still these people are telling invest, invest.
This is the right time for invest is true, but since people are looking at whole worlds economy, i don't think any new commerce wil dare to invest much. Well lets hope this situation wil get over soon and will have economic growth.
Does anyone believe that there will be a shift in the balance of power on the aftermath of the recession?
My view is that this is the end of America as the supreme superpower. Now is the chance for China to rise and take America's position. I think America's budget (particularly in defence and space exploration) will be heavily cut back as a result of this recession.
China on the other hand would become a key player in foreign affairs. I believe this is where we will see the rise of eastern powers (China especially, maybe India, and the small industrialsed powers of the east (taiwan, hk, etc)) and Europe (once again). America's days are numbered in my view.
Every government's days are numbered.
This will defenitly take some time before most economies are fully recovered. All the air what got in this financial system got pressed out all in once. It was a matter of time before this was about to happen. Hope due to new regulations they can stop some irrisponsible financial actions by some in the future...