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Who will win the next Canadian Federal Election?





gandalfthegrey
I am fed up with all the fear mongering of how the Conservatives will win a majority government in Canada in the next federal election. That is total garbage.

If you look at the riding by riding results, it is nearly impossible given current and past voting patterns for the Conservatives to get a majority government.


Not that I think a majority Conservative government will be all that bad. I am just rather upset of how the media try to frame the election. They just want an election contest between the Conservatives and Liberals. They do this speculation every election. It causes NDP and Green voters to switch to the Liberals out of fear.
gandalfthegrey
What is worse is that many of these ridings - the Liberals have no chance. It is the NDP or Bloc Quebecois that come in 2nd.
Haelyn
Indeed. It is the same story over and over. But not much can be done about it. Sensation wins over reason every time. In some cases the 'fear' factor has actually given the Conservative seats, since it split an otherwise promising NDP campaign, giving the libs enough votes to tank the NDP's chances.
LumberJack
None of them should have a majority, they are all have doctorates in Incompetence.
gandalfthegrey
I agree with Lumberjack. Laughing
coolclay
I am not very familiar with Canadian Politics but, in my opinion a balance of all sides is always the best. To much of any particular political party is usually a bad thing.
deanhills
gandalfthegrey wrote:
I am just rather upset of how the media try to frame the election. They just want an election contest between the Conservatives and Liberals. They do this speculation every election. It causes NDP and Green voters to switch to the Liberals out of fear.


This is so true. And it irritates me too. And they always seem to get it wrong too. An added irritation is that there is rarely reporting that is equally savvy on the thinking in the East and West of Canada. Quite a number of the reports are either rooted in the West or East. Since the balance of supposedly knowledge is always more in the East, the West always seems to come up with surprises in elections. But are they really surprises or is it more a case of the media being completely out of touch with the electorate of all of the regions.

And it is true what you say. Media has an affect on people but at the same time does not seem to be able to pinpoint their thinking.
LumberJack
What concerns me more is all the separatism that is running rampant throughout the country. Just the fact that it is being reported disturbs me, confederation is uber vital to our country and the fact that the government isn't trying to address the problem just speaks volumes of their ineptitude, incompetence, and frankly irrelevance.

Oh Canada, why are you so fickle Sad
Haelyn
Meh. The liberals basically have no leadership. Harper is slimy and crooked, but whatever. I don't necessarily disagree with much of his agenda, I just find he goes about it ... well, like a standard, archtype politician (what with his complete flip/flop on votes of confidence as an example... accuse Martin of having too many, and then make every bleeding thing a bloody vote of confidence for no compelling reason). All in all, not impressed with Harper as a person -- not impressed with the liberal party -- difficult choice. A crummy person, or a crummy party...

And yes, I am discounting the NDP and the Bloc. And the Greens. They are not going to win the election -- precisely because everyone knows they won't. NDP is being erroded by the Greens (for no good reason, if you actually look at their platform, the greens are way not left wing on almost everything), and everyone knows that if you vote NDP, the cons will win a majority (insert spooky music here to show sarcasm).
LumberJack
I think the liberals have been thoroughly spanked, if they could just get over themselves and start acting like a party again, then the country can move on Smile
Haelyn
Well, they are still being devisive. The 'losers' in the vote for leadership would all rather Dionne burn and flame out, so they can step in and take over leadership. No party loyalty -- just personal agrandisation. But what do you really expect... the liberals are 'The Party of Governance' -- it is hard to build an unsuccessful coalition. Its must easier to keep everything together when you are winning, when you have no real ideology other then victory.

And on top of that... Who knows anything about Dionne? He has completely failed to bring a message on who/what he is.

He needs to get his name out there -- and counter Harper's ridiculous scapegoating and retarded allegations that the cons keep sending out in the mail.
gcaughill
The conservatives will win. But will they get a majority?
misterXY
gcaughill wrote:
The conservatives will win. But will they get a majority?

most likely, jack layton is the only real competition they have, liberals effed up.
gandalfthegrey
Haelyn wrote:
the greens are way not left wing on almost everything


This is so NOT true. The Green party is full of ex New Democrats who are fed up with the negative and divisive politics of the NDP/Socialism.

The Green Party's policies are pragmatic and above the old left/right paradigm that suits extremists just fine.
The Green Party's policies are far more of the left wing. The only item that could be considered right wing in their policy is the Green Tax Shift.
misterXY
Hehe, i voted Conservatives and they won, even though its a minority rule, still murdered the liberals (Liberals lost 21 seats err something like that lol..) next election: Conservatives Vs NDP is the real fight.
LumberJack
A lot can happen in cdn politics... no body likes Harper. The only thing going for him is lack of alternatives....
gandalfthegrey
LumberJack wrote:
A lot can happen in cdn politics... no body likes Harper. The only thing going for him is lack of alternatives....


I totally agree! Very Happy
Crinoid
100% guarantee: other, that I voted for Laughing This always happens.
Crazy_Canuck
gandalfthegrey wrote:
I am fed up with all the fear mongering of how the Conservatives will win a majority government in Canada in the next federal election.


Ahh, Canadian politics. Dare I enter?

With five major parties, even though the Greens and NDP are struggling to get much of the popular or electoral vote, and the Bloc Quebecois will always win a majority in Quebec but will not be significant anywhere else, we have a recipe for repeated minority governments ad infinitum.

It's not really a recipe for success. The resignation of Dion, even should there be a tremendously charismatic and vibrant leader to emerge for the Liberals (and I can't see one in the current crop), will not change that problem. And while we are a country that tends to like the wishy-washy middle ground, it's not really a very viable long-term political strategy.
4611
Mr. Harper is not to be trusted, he speaks with a forked tongue, shut down parliment twice because he was going to lose a vote in the house of commons, he must be a winner or he won't play the game. I would vote for the devil himself before I would vote for Mr Harper. Lets get the people who are sleeping on the streets into housing with some form of healtcare and forget about the F35's to put on a show. Big Brother has been patroling our borders and will continue to do so wheather we but these planes or not. Wayne
deanhills
4611 wrote:
Mr. Harper is not to be trusted, he speaks with a forked tongue, shut down parliment twice because he was going to lose a vote in the house of commons, he must be a winner or he won't play the game. I would vote for the devil himself before I would vote for Mr Harper. Lets get the people who are sleeping on the streets into housing with some form of healtcare and forget about the F35's to put on a show. Big Brother has been patroling our borders and will continue to do so wheather we but these planes or not. Wayne
I know this is completely irrational, but I just don't like Harper. I'm also concerned however, that like the US there aren't any young and budding excellent politicians available for standing for election. They probably just take one good look at the battle field and think, how uncool, why bother! What ever .... shrug ..... and ignore .... That IS a huge pity. Both countries need their people, especially those for the new generation and future, to come up with the best of candidates in trying times. And that is probably up to everyone in the country to make happen. I wish I could vote, but I've been outside the country for longer than five years. Maybe next time ....
Ankhanu
It's sad that I started reading this thread without looking at the post dates... to find that it was started during the last election. Sadly, not a thing has changed. Everything that had been stated in 2008 applies just as aptly today.


I greatly fear a Harper majority, or even a minority. Harper has been steadily eroding Canadian values and international reputation, and I see no reason to believe that that may abate if elected again. Yes, he's done some decent work with the economy, but almost every other aspect of his reign has been a terrible botch for the Canadian people.

The problem remains that Canadian voters tend to treat our government as a two-party system and "vote strategically", voting against either the PC or Liberal candidate they do not want by, usually, voting for the opposite of the two. It's what Canada's always done, and will continue to do... it's what keeps us repeating the same problems over and over again, the same corruption, the same lack of action, the same governmental complacency. We need to vote based on conscience, vote for who we want to represent us, rather than against who we do not. Perhaps then we might see some changes in our political miasma.

But, in the end, it's important that we vote... period.
I voted Monday and it felt damn nice. Don't take this right, this duty that we possess, that so many can only hope to have, for granted. Particularly if Harper get's his way, it may not always be granted Wink

(Yes, my political message is anti-Harper... but it's also not pro-Liberal, but it certainly is pro-democracy)
deanhills
Ankhanu wrote:
I voted Monday and it felt damn nice. Don't take this right, this duty that we possess, that so many can only hope to have, for granted. Particularly if Harper get's his way, it may not always be granted Wink
Agreed. It is important that everyone should vote. I'm really sorry I could not vote.
4611
If the voters give Mr Harper a majority then they deserve what they get. I think we should give Jack Layton a chance to govern. If he forms a government there will be no F35's to pay for and no promises that are not kept. It cannot be any worse then what we now have, Mr Harper has been found in contempt of parliment which has never happened in this country before, he lies and manipulates the facts to suit himself. Wake up voters its your country, Wayne
Ankhanu
4611 wrote:
I think we should give Jack Layton a chance to govern. If he forms a government there will be no F35's to pay for and no promises that are not kept.


No F35s, yeah, that's likely... no promises that are not kept? I think Layton's an alright guy as far as politicians go, but you've got to be living in a dream world if you actually believe that he'll deliver on all promises. It's just not possible. I think he'd fight to deliver, but, some will be forgotten, others will be denied by opposition... no politician can ever make all their promises match reality.
Ankhanu
Now's your chance, Canada!


VOTE
Ankhanu
Am disappoint.

I can only imagine this is how it felt for reasonable Americans when George W. was elected for his second term. Razz

Despite the Conservative majority, there were a couple significant and hopeful results from the election:
.: NDP Official Opposition
.: Elizabeth May winning a seat for the Green Party

May winning a seat is a great victory for the Green Party being seen as a valid option... of course, with a single seat, they still have no real power, but, perhaps in the future voters won't dismiss a Green vote as a wasted vote.

The NDP forming the Official Opposition represents an incredible shift in our system and electorate. It's the first time in modern Canada that we have broken the Liberal/Conservative virtual dualism, more accurately representing Canada's multi-party system. It's a step towards the right direction in voter outlook, accepting parties that aren't so heavily entrenched in history, maintaining the status quo. It remains to be seen how effective Layton et al. can be in the face of a Harper majority, but, it is a step in the right direction.
Bluedoll
I think it will be the Conservatives, followed by the NDP, the Liberals, Block and the Green.

ok, close the thread! Laughing
deanhills
Bluedoll wrote:
I think it will be the Conservatives, followed by the NDP, the Liberals, Block and the Green.

ok, close the thread! Laughing
You were right. And WOW! did the NDP do really well, that has to have been a surprise (from 37 to 102 seats) and the thorough beating the Liberals received (plunging from 77 to 37 seats). And one seat for the Greens. Did you notice how very close the NDP came to taking other long established Liberal seats as well, like that of Hedy Fry in Vancouver Central? Can imagine Hedy and her supporters must have sweated quite a bit when the votes had been counted? The conservatives' seats increased from 143 to 167. Exciting political times in Canada,especially for the NDP?

For those who are interested, there are summaries in the articles below:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2011
joshyu
Harper won a majority due to voter manipulation (ie. the robo-call scandal). He should be in jail (Dean Del Mastro and Michael Sona).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Canadian_federal_election_voter_suppression_scandal
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