So, have you heard the news about higher food prices? Bought a loaf of bread or a liter of milk at the store lately? Have you, perhaps, started to eat a little less beef and a little more chicken (or maybe a little less meat altogether), when faced with the price at the butcher shop?
There is a very interesting cascade effect occurring in the world right now; one which has quickly shown its effects in every nation. Rarely are the foundations of human civilization shaken to create such a clean and undeniable chain reaction as they are right now, as a simple food staple becomes stretched.
Here's the breakdown:
In the beginning, oil prices rise due to three factors: use of oil at an all-time high, supply of oil passes its peak and begins to decrease, and inadequate refining capabilities (further crippled by natural disasters). In addition, a war in the middle east creates unfavorable conditions for the continued, uninterrupted extraction of oil from customary areas. The US, the world's biggest consumer of oil, begins to put ethanol into full production.
Meanwhile, China's economy continues to expand faster and faster, exponentially increasing its per-capita wealth. Individual situations vary, of course, but in general, people have more money. People with more money start to adapt to improved lifestyles, including more complex diets and more demand for energy. The demand for meat and oil slowly rises in China.
Oil prices around the globe eventually stabilize at a painfully high rate, but not painfully high enough to force a marked change in driving habits in the US. Larger vehicles with traditional engines continue to outsell smaller and hybrid models through the year 2007. The US supplements its appetite for oil with ethanol, a fuel made (predominantly) from corn. The corn for this ethanol is grown in farm fields by the same agricultural sectors responsible for the US food crop. The demand for ethanol makes corn prices rise. Many farmers change the setup of their lands to include more corn, to take advantage of these prices. As a result, less soybeans, rice, and wheat are grown in the US than in years previous.
The demand for meat in the US remains as high as ever. Coupled with the newly-developed demand for meat in the markets in China, the livestock sector around the world requires more fodder grain than ever before. Roughly 8 to 10 pounds of fodder grain are required for every single pound of beef or pork ultimately yielded for human consumption. A strain develops in the fodder grain industry, and prices of grain rise. As these prices rise, the cost of raising pigs and cattle also rises. The price of beef, pork, and milk climbs quickly.
At the same time, as the oil pinch continues, world demand for ethanol increases at a rapid rate. Farmers sell their corn to ethanol producers as well as to the fodder suppliers and for human consumption. Grains such as wheat, rice, soybeans, and other staple crops are less available because the profits that can be made from corn have enticed many farmers to cut back on their other crops. A shortage of these other crops, especially wheat, leads to a worldwide price increase in most of the basic human foods. Foods closest to these grains sources or animals fed on these grain sources jump to higher prices the fastest, notably including bread, pasta, eggs, milk, butter, beef and beef products, pork and pork products, traditional poultry, etc.
Simultaneously, many vegetable and fruit farmers who use petroleum-based fertilizers (the most widely-used category of fertilizer in the US) are finding it difficult to continue business under the oil crisis, when the cost for fertilizers have increases with oil demand. They raise prices along with the grain and livestock farmers to keep up with their business expenses.
And finally, THIS. The US is a major supplier of food aid to undernourished countries. Food aid most commonly takes the form of grain, such as rice and wheat, which are easy to transport and prepare. However, in this age of higher grain prices and a triple demand on the grain stock (ethanol, livestock fodder, and human consumption), the US cuts back on aid by 41%. There is now less grain available than there is a need for it in countries where the people are truly starving... and the population in these countries, and of the entire world, continues to increase.
And the kicker: if humankind stopped using corn to produce ethanol OR cut back on its consumption of farm-raised meat, there would be enough food grain available from land currently being farmed to provide for the entire human population.
So, do you think we will? Will people learn to lessen their demand on the grain supply? Or will we start clearing and farming more land to increase the overall availability of grain? Will praise for ethanol, first heralded as a solution to the oil crisis, be redacted? Or can other plants, like wild grasses, be harvested for ethanol instead of corn? Can we give up our excesses and save the basics for other humans, or do today's first world nations lack the willpower to sacrifice their accustomed lifestyle for the sake of the third world?
Your opinions would be much appreciated.
Listen to a related NPR interview here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14810470
There is a very interesting cascade effect occurring in the world right now; one which has quickly shown its effects in every nation. Rarely are the foundations of human civilization shaken to create such a clean and undeniable chain reaction as they are right now, as a simple food staple becomes stretched.
Here's the breakdown:
In the beginning, oil prices rise due to three factors: use of oil at an all-time high, supply of oil passes its peak and begins to decrease, and inadequate refining capabilities (further crippled by natural disasters). In addition, a war in the middle east creates unfavorable conditions for the continued, uninterrupted extraction of oil from customary areas. The US, the world's biggest consumer of oil, begins to put ethanol into full production.
Meanwhile, China's economy continues to expand faster and faster, exponentially increasing its per-capita wealth. Individual situations vary, of course, but in general, people have more money. People with more money start to adapt to improved lifestyles, including more complex diets and more demand for energy. The demand for meat and oil slowly rises in China.
Oil prices around the globe eventually stabilize at a painfully high rate, but not painfully high enough to force a marked change in driving habits in the US. Larger vehicles with traditional engines continue to outsell smaller and hybrid models through the year 2007. The US supplements its appetite for oil with ethanol, a fuel made (predominantly) from corn. The corn for this ethanol is grown in farm fields by the same agricultural sectors responsible for the US food crop. The demand for ethanol makes corn prices rise. Many farmers change the setup of their lands to include more corn, to take advantage of these prices. As a result, less soybeans, rice, and wheat are grown in the US than in years previous.
The demand for meat in the US remains as high as ever. Coupled with the newly-developed demand for meat in the markets in China, the livestock sector around the world requires more fodder grain than ever before. Roughly 8 to 10 pounds of fodder grain are required for every single pound of beef or pork ultimately yielded for human consumption. A strain develops in the fodder grain industry, and prices of grain rise. As these prices rise, the cost of raising pigs and cattle also rises. The price of beef, pork, and milk climbs quickly.
At the same time, as the oil pinch continues, world demand for ethanol increases at a rapid rate. Farmers sell their corn to ethanol producers as well as to the fodder suppliers and for human consumption. Grains such as wheat, rice, soybeans, and other staple crops are less available because the profits that can be made from corn have enticed many farmers to cut back on their other crops. A shortage of these other crops, especially wheat, leads to a worldwide price increase in most of the basic human foods. Foods closest to these grains sources or animals fed on these grain sources jump to higher prices the fastest, notably including bread, pasta, eggs, milk, butter, beef and beef products, pork and pork products, traditional poultry, etc.
Simultaneously, many vegetable and fruit farmers who use petroleum-based fertilizers (the most widely-used category of fertilizer in the US) are finding it difficult to continue business under the oil crisis, when the cost for fertilizers have increases with oil demand. They raise prices along with the grain and livestock farmers to keep up with their business expenses.
And finally, THIS. The US is a major supplier of food aid to undernourished countries. Food aid most commonly takes the form of grain, such as rice and wheat, which are easy to transport and prepare. However, in this age of higher grain prices and a triple demand on the grain stock (ethanol, livestock fodder, and human consumption), the US cuts back on aid by 41%. There is now less grain available than there is a need for it in countries where the people are truly starving... and the population in these countries, and of the entire world, continues to increase.
And the kicker: if humankind stopped using corn to produce ethanol OR cut back on its consumption of farm-raised meat, there would be enough food grain available from land currently being farmed to provide for the entire human population.
So, do you think we will? Will people learn to lessen their demand on the grain supply? Or will we start clearing and farming more land to increase the overall availability of grain? Will praise for ethanol, first heralded as a solution to the oil crisis, be redacted? Or can other plants, like wild grasses, be harvested for ethanol instead of corn? Can we give up our excesses and save the basics for other humans, or do today's first world nations lack the willpower to sacrifice their accustomed lifestyle for the sake of the third world?
Your opinions would be much appreciated.
Listen to a related NPR interview here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14810470
