I read a book recently about the 1918 influenza outbreak, and it was pretty scary. We've come a long way in our understanding of disease and medicine since 1918, but are we ready if the N1-H5 avian flu virus makes the jump to an airborne human to human contagion? Or is all the talk of pandemic just more media scare and hype?
Will the human population see a horrific death toll like we did in 1918?
The 1918 flu was the most deadly among young adults with healthy immune systems - their own body's attempt to fight off the flu was what killed them. How do you fight your own immune system? Will our understanding of diseases like AIDs, which affect the immune system, give us a leg up over our ancestors?
Are you worried about a pandemic? Are you taking any steps to protect yourself? (stockpiling those hospital masks? Planning a self-imposed quarantine? Or just hoping the government will handle it if it ever happens?)
After reading this book, I'm more worried than I was, but I really don't have a clear enough understanding of our current situation to know if I should be worried or not. I do know that the media loves a good scare story, so it's hard to trust what they are telling us. What is science telling us?
Should you be worried...Probably.
Should it be top of your worry list....No.
Is there anything reasonable you can do about it....No *
*apart, perhaps, from study biology, immunology and epidemiology and become a scientist specialising in these issues.
H5N1 avian flu: Spread by drinking water into small clusters:
Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur - but are overvalued immense. In the course of Influenza epidemics in Germany recognized clusters are rarely (9% of the cases in the season 2005).
In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 avian flu virus will be transferred to humans strong seasonal in the cold via cold drinking water, as with the birds feb/mar 2006.
Recent research must worry: So far the virus had to reach the bronchi and the lungs in order to infect humans. Now it infects the upper respiratory system (mucous membranes of the throat e.g. when drinking and mucous membranes of the nose and probably also the conjunctiva of the eyes as well as the eardrum e.g. at showering). In a few cases (Viet Nam, Thailand) stomach and intestine by the H5N1 virus were stricken but not the bronchi and the lungs. The virus might been orally taken up, e.g. when drinking contaminated water.
The performance to eliminate viruses of the drinking water processing plants in Germany regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.
In temperate climates the strong seasonal waterborne infections like norovirus, rotavirus, salmonellae, campylobacter and - differing from the usual dogma - influenza are mainly triggered by drinking water dependent on the drinking water temperature (in Germany minimum feb/mar maximum august). There is no evidence that influenza primary is transmitted by saliva droplets. In temperate climates the strong interdependence between influenza infections and environmental temperatures cant be explained with the primary biotic transmission by saliva droplets from human to human with temperatures of 37.5°C. There must be an abiotic vehicle like cold drinking water. There is no other appropriate abiotic vehicle. In Germany about 98% of inhabitants have a central public water supply with older and better protected water. Therefore in Germany cold water is decisive to virulence of viruses.
In hot climates/tropics the flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather and natural after floods. Virulence of Influenza virus depends on temperature and time. If young and fresh H5N1 contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels or rice fields is used for water supply water temperature for infection may be higher as in temperate climates.
Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann
eMail soddemann-aachen@t-online.de
http://www.dugi-ev.de/information.html
Epidemiological Analysis:
http://www.dugi-ev.de/TW_INFEKTIONEN_H5N1_20071019.pdf Nice posting 
I recently went on a flight to Alicante and 30 minutes after landing my brother in law was ill. He was shaking and was quickly admitted to a Spanish hospital, diagnosed with meningitis and pneumonia. After nearly a week in hospital and a few hundred pounds lighter on our pocket, he was told that he had probably caught the disease from the air conditioning on the plane. How scary was that. The hospital by the way was brilliant and we are now home and he seems to be fully better.
i believe there would be too much hygiene for a disease to spread to a pandemic. However i recently bought a proper gas mask from a hardware store (it was for using PVC glue oringially) and its SAWEET. It has the two yellow filters and you cant smell anything through it, and it looks like off a movie, lol.
i agree with what bikerman said.
right now.. there are more things to worry about
like the presidential race
Several chilling considerations highlight the seriousness of an impending pandemic of the H5N1 'avian' influenza virus.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced plans to stockpile H5 influenza vaccine and several manufacturers have already offered to contribute.
Please check htis link
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v454/n7201/full/454162a.html A pandemic is definately something to consider nowadays. What can you do to avoid infection? Probably not much. If it is a respiratory infection it will be spread through the air. While you can wear gas masks with a biological particle filter (not over the nose dust filters or even gas masks with carbon cartridges) you might be able to avoid infection. I guess you would have to wear it all the time though.
It is pretty much a certainty within a period of time. It's been almost a hundred years since our last multi-million killing flu.
I dont think the disease has a high enough infection rate to become any sort of threat to human kind
