A few days back the VP of Google Mr Vint Cerf had delivered a lecture on the occasion of EDINBURGH TV FESTIVAL
He had to say that the future of TV is very bleak and in all probability the TV will be obsolete in the coming years
Actually I have a thought on this topic
I feel that TV is mainly driven by Ads and commercials and the moment when one can watch TV programs without watching commercials then that moment will signal the end of TV
But one should keep in mind that live programs are the most interesting ones in TV like sports events and news and it will take of lot of tech to actually remove ads from live programs
Although I must say that there are softwares and hardwares that actually pause and play live signal from TV, but here we are left with no clue as to when a particular ad begins and ends so the choice of pausing and playing back TV amount to not much because we have to FF the ad again when watching the recorded version.
How many of you would be happy without the TV ? Be sure you are going to have a gadget something of the i pod equivalent for TV with which you may be more unhappy and wish you had the good old TV
But again when a tech becomes obsolete is stays obsolete hence one has to move on
People have been able to tape programs and skip ads for some time, so I don't really think this is the case. Anyway, iPods and whatnot have the obvious disadvantage of screen size. I could imagine people using computers to watch shows (indeed, some people do, and not always legally) but even then it's not the same. I don't see the TV going anywhere for some time ...
I don't think TV is under any huge threat at the moment - there have been all sorts of doomsday theories about it but the reality is that for all that YouTube, iPods, and so on can provide they're all locked into the computer and they still take a while to download (moreso the latter).
When you're lucky enough to have a public broadcaster such as the BBC in the UK, or in my case the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ads aren't really a concern - money comes from a television license or the government (this is the case for the ABC), meaning that news programmes and shows are free of the grip of commercial objectives.
What really worries me about what's happening to TV is the sheer amount of crap that is on - Australian/American/Pop Idol, Big Brother (sure, a social experiment at first but who cares these days?), Survivor (imported here unfortunately) and so on. Our recent free trade deal with the US has put Australian content requirements under hazard as well, meaning that rather than decreasing the number of foreign shows, US in particular, might increase at the expense of locally-made drama, comedy, documentaries..
People are too familiar with what TV has to offer, and with the promises of digital TV (extra channels and all that - yet to happen, though, in Australia) I don't think it's going anywhere that soon. And either way, the TV stations/networks/broadcasters are still providing a significant amount of the content that you get of the internet - how much of the stuff you watch on YouTube/download of iTunes is originally from TV? YT has a lot to offer, but I don't really think that videos of cats jumping backwards into sinks is going to entertain the masses that well..
I'd have to say that I don't think television is going anywhere anytime soon either. I've gotten to where I don't watch much TV (with the exception of Mythbusters, Ghost Hunters, and a few cartoons), but I think that has more to do with my time constraints. I do think that TV will have some major improvements over time and will grow with our technology (can you imagen a TV that tricks your mind into actually thinking that you're expierencing the movie/TV?)...
It depends what your definition of a TV is. I think the physical object that we have come to know as a tv, will go extinct. I also think/know that analog tv signals will go extinct (Feb, 2009) http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columnist/kimkomando/2007-08-23-digital-TV-transition_N.htm
Do I think that tv programs will go extinct, no never, I just think that computers will come standard with TV cards, and very large hang on the wall LCD screens. I think that will become the next "big thing".