Oceans may rise up to 140 cms by 2100 due to warming

ryukenden

I find following article interesting as if ocean rises up to 140 cms than they would be a lot of flooding, I think.

Bikerman · Last edited by Bikerman on Tue Jan 30, 2007 4:29 pm; edited 1 time in total

Here's a document showing one model's predictions in this regard.

http://camres.frih.net/resources/geography/sea%20level%20model.pdf

Regards
Chris

indianinworld

I don't know the exact statistics. But this is very much true. Even there is a WIDE Variance in the Climatic Condition in our country.

Winters are extremely cold this year in some parts of the country. And the Death tolls due to this reason has been marginally raising day by day. Not only winter, in some parts we have also received unprecedented rainfall. Just awaiting Summer ahead - To feel the Heat everywhere Wink

Keep Smiling
Smile

budiman

I think it will not like what they have predicted.

All of those results were just extrapolated, not a real one. The global weather could reverse (become cooler) in the near future.

Just hope it will not be extreme changes. That is what we are really worry about.

TomGrey

I doubt such a rapid ocean rise, though it's possible; I also doubt global warming some.

I don't doubt the increase in CO2 -- and the changes in climate.

Meaning more wetter wets (flooding), and drier drys (droughts); hotter hots & colder colds.

Even hotter winters and colder summers, in many years.

Part of the solution must be higher gas taxes, or else there is a lack of seriousness about changing human behavior.

Soulfire

I guess I am just a staunch opponent of Global Warming. I agree that (in general) temperatures are rising, as part of a natural cycle. Talk to me about global warming when temperatures outside are no longer in the teens for highs. Since around January 15 and for the foreseeable future, bitter cold air is dominating. This has many people asking the question "Where's global warming?"

nopaniers

Here's a graph of sea level records over the past 100 years. It doesn't look like 140cm by 2100 to me unless something goes dramatically wrong. It looks more like another 20cm or so, although it is true that predictions and measurements show that ice is melting at an increasing rate.

LeukeFilmpjes

Bikerman

One factor that has only recently been confirmed is the influence of global dimming on the models. After 9/11 one climate scientist decided to analyse the effect on the climate of the 3-day grounding of the entire US civil aviation fleet. The results were startling. The temperature in the 3 day period was a whole 1 degree (Celcius) higher, directly as a result of the lack of air traffic. This finding has since been supported by other research which shows that, globally, the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth has declined significantly (between 5 and 50% depending on the region) over the last 4 decades. This result is not in doubt and is supported by various experimental and observational data. The implication is clear. Atmospheric pollution has been acting to mitigate the impact of global warming by reducing the amount of solar energy reaching us as a result of airborne pollution - in the form of vapour trails from aircraft, airborne particulates from burning fossil fuels and airborne pollutants from industrial processes. Whilst there is no agreement on exactly how much this has influenced the picture, it seems certain that the influence is large and, more worryingly, that this influence has not been factored into current climate models.
As the west has reduced air pollution significantly over the last decades, this effect - now officially called Global Dimming - has been significantly reduced in the western hemisphere and there is little doubt in my own mind that this has played a large part in the 'recent' trend for hotter summer temperatures in this hemisphere.

Most current climate models predict a mean temperature rise of around 3-5 degrees (celcius) by the end of the current century. If the effects of global dimming are factored into the models then some scientists are warning that these predictions could be off by as much as 100%, giving a temperature rise of up to 10 degrees. That would be catastrophic. The UK, for example, would see a shift in climate from the current temperate conditions to one roughly the same as Morocco/Algeria. Other places would be much worse hit. This increase would also bring other factors into play which would have equally dire implications for life as we know it.

The first would be the melting of the Greenland Ice shelf - this is already underway and a temperatures rise of 3-5 degrees would mean the effect would become irreversible. This would lead to a rise in sea levels of at least 20-40cm which would be globally catastrophic, as this model shows:

The second 'trigger event' would almost certainly occur with any temperature rise much above 5 degrees. This is potential 'liberation' of deposits of methane hydrates from the deep ocean floor (there are estimated to be several thousand gigatons of methane hydrates on the ocean floor). Methane hydrate is essentially methane locked-up into a solid form by the pressure and temperature at the ocean floor. These deposits are known to be temperature sensitive and since methane is 8 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas, this represents a potential greenhouse driver greater than all the fossil fuels ever burned being released in a single burst.
Recently scientists have proposed that just such a release happened 55.5 million years ago (an era known as the 'latest Paleocene thermal maxim'). Ocean temperatures soared by 7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit within only about 1,000 years, a very short period by geologic standards. Ironically it is also theorised that this was largely influential in the evolution of the primates and, thus, responsible for the evolution of humans.
The effect of a modern-day release on the global climate is beyond the ability of current models to predict but it would certainly be catastrophic and could potentially represent a global extinction event.

nikki

After reading this I am reminded of something I actually read in the bible....

about the islands being covered over by water....
Shocked

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