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Peak Oil





mephisto73
It seems like we are now on a path to energy crisis. The global, as well as the US economy, is heavily dependant on oil.

Peak oil theory says that once we have used up around 50% of the worlds oil reserves the production is going to start declining because the remaining oil is harder/more costly to extract, and as global energy demand is increasing, a decreasing oil production leaves a large gap in energy supply.

Some analysts have estimated that we have already past or will shortly reach peak oil production, while others are more conservative, estimates ranging from 2010-2020+, while others deny peak oil theory altogether (OPEC).

It has been said that in 2015 we need to find, develop and produce a volume of new gas and oil that equals to 8 out of every 10 being produced today (Kjell Aleklett/ExxonMobil).

Some more signs:

For the third straight year, the industry failed to replace its oil reserves through the drill bit.
Upstream costs keeping pace with oil prices.. (John S. HeroldInc. &
Harrison Lovegrove& Co. Ltd.)OGJ. Oct. 2, 2006.


Output from Cantarell(the world's second-largest oil complex) declined by 10.3% in the first half of 2006
Shields, D. Despite falling output, Mexican Politics Keep
Foreign Operators Out. Offshore. September 2006.


EU crude oil production decreased 9% in 2005.
Leblond, D. EU energy production drop forces
higher imports. OGJ. Sept. 22, 2006.


Simple theory that has been applied and found to agree with US oil production that peaked around 1980 indicates that we have already passed peak oil. (http://d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/hirsch_peaking_atlantic_council.pdf)

Even if the peak oil lies in the future it is safe to say that it will come. Experts say that peak oil may be happening now, or be another 5-10 years in the future. The largest uncertainty lies in the estimates of the worlds oil reserves which may or may not be underestimated.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-10-26T183322Z_01_N26302200_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-PEAKOIL.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna
maclui
with 20 years before oil becomes unavailable there is plenty of time to switch to alternate fuel sources, perhaps timing could not be better since global warming and enviromental problems will benefit from this lack of oil.
suntzu3500
mephisto73 wrote:
It seems like we are now on a path to energy crisis. The global, as well as the US economy, is heavily dependant on oil.

Peak oil theory says that once we have used up around 50% of the worlds oil reserves the production is going to start declining because the remaining oil is harder/more costly to extract, and as global energy demand is increasing, a decreasing oil production leaves a large gap in energy supply.

Some analysts have estimated that we have already past or will shortly reach peak oil production, while others are more conservative, estimates ranging from 2010-2020+, while others deny peak oil theory altogether (OPEC).

It has been said that in 2015 we need to find, develop and produce a volume of new gas and oil that equals to 8 out of every 10 being produced today (Kjell Aleklett/ExxonMobil).

Some more signs:

For the third straight year, the industry failed to replace its oil reserves through the drill bit.
Upstream costs keeping pace with oil prices.. (John S. HeroldInc. &
Harrison Lovegrove& Co. Ltd.)OGJ. Oct. 2, 2006.


Output from Cantarell(the world's second-largest oil complex) declined by 10.3% in the first half of 2006
Shields, D. Despite falling output, Mexican Politics Keep
Foreign Operators Out. Offshore. September 2006.


EU crude oil production decreased 9% in 2005.
Leblond, D. EU energy production drop forces
higher imports. OGJ. Sept. 22, 2006.


Simple theory that has been applied and found to agree with US oil production that peaked around 1980 indicates that we have already passed peak oil. (http://d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/hirsch_peaking_atlantic_council.pdf)

Even if the peak oil lies in the future it is safe to say that it will come. Experts say that peak oil may be happening now, or be another 5-10 years in the future. The largest uncertainty lies in the estimates of the worlds oil reserves which may or may not be underestimated.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-10-26T183322Z_01_N26302200_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-PEAKOIL.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna


There will never, in any conceivable situation, be a complete depletion of the world's oil reserves. Synthetic oil production will make up a larger segment of the world market as a whole, filling the gap caused by drilling. Due to the increasing cost of synthetic oil, alternatives will be saught (sp) and implemented, reducing overall global demand for hydrocarbons in general.
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