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How much lower will crude oil go?





Detremmerie
The recent decline in the price of a barrell of crude oil has mainly been due to the weak hurricane season and the growing reserves US has been able to pile up. This combined with easing concerns over Iran and the news that BP's Alaska oil field will produce sooner than expected has softened the crude to almost 65$.
Do you think it will go any lower, and if so, on which basis?
Matt
The Conspirator
As low as OPEC wonts.
risuarez
Well! you know what they say: "There is nothing more nervious than a barrel of oil". Its price depends on so many factors that it will be defficult to say that tomorrow it will fall or rise.

But we have to be clear of something, Actually (and that menas in "real" terms) there has not been a shortage of oil. Tha rise of the price has been caused mainly by speculation. So It all depends mostly on political factors than on the production of oil.
poiko123
$58.00 per barrell is my prediction. Although it will take a while to take advantage of, Chevron and two other oil companies found a new field in the Gulf of Mexico. Also the summer driving season is over so the prices will also go down a bit.
tracybh
already lowest for the 5 months, expecting more decline~
bogger
personally, I'd say that it'll go down to $60, and then go up again, now, this isn't something i'd back money on, so don't quote me Razz
picsite
I think its going to go down low low, like 50-60 then they'll complain that they're reserves are growing short and they're running out and they'll hike the price up to 100+ and its gonna take millions of cars of the road week by week. Our very dependance of survival will be dependant on those oil companies....that last sentence didn't make too much sense but anywayz....my three cents
risuarez
I agree with that you have just said. This lowering of the price is not gonna be permanet. As a matter of fact I am sure it will go up again. And yes! at a higher price. I do not really know why but I have a big, powerful hunch that it will be like that. After all, that's the way it has always been, doesnt it?
S3nd K3ys
So long as the US (and others) continue making arrangements to get off oil, the prices will continue to decline.

Remember Jimmy Carter? (heh, yeah, I know...), he started the US moving towards synthetic/alternative oils because oil was 34$/barrell. When the OPECkers found out, they promptly dropped the price to 14$/barrell, and the threat of losing all that revenue went away because it wasn't cost effective for the US to move towards alternitives any more. (Or so we thought). The entire project was scrapped within 5 or 7 years.

What will happen now is basically the same thing. Hopefully this time the US won't be duped again by temporary low prices and will continue it's move away from oil.

The discovery of more oil deeper in the Gulf also helped, as well as the Saudi's (I think) making a report that we have only tapped into 18% of the available oil in the world, meaning at the LOW end of the scale, with usage rising by 2% per year, we will run out around 2070.
Rico
It might not be dropping for too long, according to Bloomberg it’s going up again.
indeedwrestling
I think we won't see $30/oil for awhile unless the dollar becomes unbelievably strong. However, I strongly suspect we'll be under $60 by the end of 2006.
JoeFriday
it all depends on how the coming winter is in the US.. if it's mild, you can expect oil to drop to the mid 40's.. possibly even get back into the sub $40 range.. right now our reserves are nearly at full capacity, and demand has peaked for the year and will be dropping steadily unless we have an unusually harsh winter

it also depends on the geopolitical climate involving Iran.. if they cool their crazy mullah heels, we should be ok.. but if they keep rattling their sabers, prices might not drop as fast as supply would dictate

I predict oil will hit $42 by January.. with gas prices around $1.60 a gallon
risuarez
Rico wrote:
It might not be dropping for too long, according to Bloomberg it’s going up again.

Confirmed! it is going up again! It was too good to be true!
The Conspirator
Theres more demand than ever.
More people, more cars not to mention the growing economy of China, the Chinese are getting more money and they won't cars.
risuarez
The Conspirator wrote:
Theres more demand than ever.
More people, more cars not to mention the growing economy of China, the Chinese are getting more money and they won't cars.

hey!!! I love your signature! I am gonna copy the Aristotle quote!
The Conspirator
I got it from here
It has allot of them.
Mwilliams
The prices will go down to about $2.00 per gallon. And thats the most. We will be very lucky if they do go down to $2 per gallon.
risuarez
Mwilliams wrote:
The prices will go down to about $2.00 per gallon. And thats the most. We will be very lucky if they do go down to $2 per gallon.

Just for couriosity! I though that in the US. you measured Gas in litters instead of galons! Whenyou pay for your fuel you do it in litters or galons?
bogger
litres, surely, and in USA it's gallons, in Europe it's litres. We have close to $2 per litre here, and yet over there they're moaning about having to pay more than $2 per gallon! which frankly, is a bit like the princess and the pea
Detremmerie
Thanks for all your replies!

For now, I predict an 58$ ,as OPEC doesn't rule out production cuts if prices become unstable. Also, BP announced its major oil field Thunder Horse is delayed yet another year. Seems as there might not be a crash landing for crude...

Matt
Detremmerie
By the way, here in europe ,prices in liters are around 1.4€ (which is 1.7794$?) for Unleaded 95. Prices for Diesel are just below 1€ / litre
Coclus
But the general trend will be up up up. I dont think there gonna be a real and sudden high but it will get more and more expensive every year.
insanesnoopy
I agree as the tipping scale approaches the cost of crude oil will continue to go up. I think that some of the drop in price has been attributed to petrol companies looking to secure a market that is starting to look at alternatives more than ever before.
haris3
There are many factor that come in play to determine the price of crude oil or "Gas."

One major factor is season change. Each season requires diff. mixtures of gas. Since it's hot in summer, a special mixture is used to keep the ozone clean. In the winter and other seasons there is not much heat so the mixture is of a lower percentage.

Since winter is coming, i predict price will go down even more. $55-today, maybe 48 by two months. Hopefully. Very Happy


insanesnoopy wrote:
I agree as the tipping scale approaches the cost of crude oil will continue to go up. I think that some of the drop in price has been attributed to petrol companies looking to secure a market that is starting to look at alternatives more than ever before.
bangala
Well the main factor that determines oil prices is Supply & Demand. Obviously, demand is growing for oil and it will continue so in the future. Therefore, despite a temperarly pause or drop in oil prives, the trend is going to be always UP.
Detremmerie
I agree, but as all commodities, it tends to trade in cycli... Question is whether this drop in prices is the end of the commodities bull market for now, or is just a regular correction...
roberpro
I think never.Oil will increase the price too, the new tecnologies will help us not using oil.
mailforarvind
over the last few years the oil trading market has become very very speculative,
for example, if the us met office predicts very chilly weather, automatically prices shoot up months in advance

the kind of fear and speculation that makes this happen was not so prominent earlier, even now, the demand and supply situation is not so bad as the media sometimes inflates

i meant short term situation, ofcourse the long term situation is another thing altogether

only countries like india and china which are buying oil wells as if there is no tomorrow are really looking at the long term aspect

actually thats the state owned oil companies that are doing this
whereas american and european oil companies are basically already very large companies with huge reserves and huge profits so they dont think like CNOOC or OVL or other state owned companies, which want to snap up oil assets whereever possible

China even uses political influence to get the assets that it wants

as for the long term outlook oil prices will go south for some time, but even that kind of prediction is dificult since the market is highly speculative now unlike say a decade or more earlier
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