Has anyone else noticed the peculiarly slow Atlantic hurricane season? Aside from three small tropical storms, there has been nothing in the Atlantic.
Accuweather attributes this "slow" season to very dry air in place over almost all of the Atlantic, strong upper level winds (shear), and cooler ocean temperatures than previous years.
However, according to Accuweather, the slow hurricane season may be giving us a false sense of security.
Long term forecast models indicate that something major could be developing for the eastern seaboard by the Labor Day weekend. Of course, it is far too early to confirm anything, but it's been persistent in it's forecasts.
In fact, despite only the 3 weak systems we've had this year, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) continues to hold their forecast of an above average system with 12-15 systems, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Hmm, something's brewing in the Atlantic eh? Like my title says, the winds of change are blowing, and the Labor Day weekend happens to be the very peak of the tropical season.
This is an image of the Atlantic basin with areas of interest circled:
And here is Accuweather's Discussion about those circled systems:
In conclusion, there are a few things to look at with the possibility of increasing tropical activity:
The dry air mass that has been in place over most of the Atlantic all season is slowly beginning to deteriorate, and is being replaced with moist air.
The upper level winds (shear) is slowing down, and the trade winds that push the storms along are becoming more organized and uniform east to west, which is prime for tropical development.
The low pressure systems that form over Ethiopia, move across the Sahara, and enter the Atlantic ocean are becoming stronger, which will increase likelihood of development.
Finally, the ocean temperatures have warmed to at or above prime tropical development level.
Accuweather attributes this "slow" season to very dry air in place over almost all of the Atlantic, strong upper level winds (shear), and cooler ocean temperatures than previous years.
However, according to Accuweather, the slow hurricane season may be giving us a false sense of security.
Long term forecast models indicate that something major could be developing for the eastern seaboard by the Labor Day weekend. Of course, it is far too early to confirm anything, but it's been persistent in it's forecasts.
| Accuweather wrote: |
| the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center continues to keep eyes on upcoming changes that should increase tropical activity. |
| Accuweather wrote: |
| Long range computer models continue to waffle on the timing and location of a potentially major East Coast hurricane over the Labor Day weekend. Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams says, "The hurricane scenario remains highly speculative. What's more, there is a great deal of uncertainty about any specific forecast made two weeks in advance." While the placement of tropical systems in the extended long range model is difficult to pinpoint, the important point to remember is that the tropics are primed to re-energize.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be closely monitoring this developing situation in the Atlantic Ocean, and will provide regular updates. It would be rather unusual not to have a hurricane or tropical storm somewhere in the Atlantic basin over the Labor Day weekend. |
This is an image of the Atlantic basin with areas of interest circled:
And here is Accuweather's Discussion about those circled systems:
| Quote: |
| The main area of interest in the Atlantic Basin is currently the area of low pressure that is east of Jacksonville, Florida. Earlier Friday, thunderstorms will firing near the center of circulation, but strong northeasterly winds have torn thunderstorms apart, so now an exposed low-level circulation is all that is present. However, the radar in Jacksonville indicates shallow showers and thunderstorms continue to occur near the center, and winds of 25-30 mph are likely with them. An argument could be made that this actually a badly sheared tropical depression. This low should start to drift slowly to the southwest over the next 36 hours, eventually moving ashore in Florida. Although stronger thunderstorms can erupt around the low at any time, they will likely be quickly sheared apart by strong northeasterly winds aloft that will continue for a couple of days. Parts of northeastern Florida will experience gusty winds and drenching downpours from this low over the next day or so as it moves ashore.
An upper-level disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico is helping trigger spotty thunderstorms Friday. Currently, there is no sign of this feature evolving into a tropical depression or storm, but it is sending thunderstorms with welcome rain into South Texas Friday afternoon, and that should take place again Saturday. A tropical wave is present in the western Caribbean along 88 west, south of 20 north Friday. It is only causing a few thunderstorms as it moves into Central America at about 10 knots Friday afternoon. Another tropical wave can be found along 55 west, south of 20 north Friday. It is generating only spotty thunderstorms, and there is no sign of organization. Strong southwesterly winds aloft will cause too much shear for any further organization to occur there. There is another wave over the Atlantic near 38 west, south of 21 north Friday, moving west at 12 knots. However, sinking dry air over this area is preventing the wave from causing any significant shower and thunderstorm activity. The last tropical wave in the Atlantic recently emerged from Africa Friday and is now along 20 west, south of 13 north, moving west at 15 knots. There are a few thunderstorms along this wave, and there even appears to be a broad circulation present. Although there is no shear and the waters there are warm enough for development to occur, there are some limiting factors. There is a substantial blast of Saharan dust coming off Africa just to the north of the wave, which will hinder further development. Also, there is a relatively hostile environment to the west of the wave, which would probably subdue anything that could develop in the near further. There are two other interesting features evident on the last few of Friday's visible satellite pictures. One is an area of low pressure just to the northeast of Bermuda that is slowly drifting westward. There are a few showers and thunderstorms around the low, and the waters there are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. However, wind shear from easterly winds aloft should keep this feature from developing. There is a similar feature to the northeast of the Leeward Islands centered near 21 north, 56 west, that is drifting slowly northwestward, which also should be kept at bay by wind shear. There, the winds aloft are strong out of the southwest. |
In conclusion, there are a few things to look at with the possibility of increasing tropical activity:
The dry air mass that has been in place over most of the Atlantic all season is slowly beginning to deteriorate, and is being replaced with moist air.
The upper level winds (shear) is slowing down, and the trade winds that push the storms along are becoming more organized and uniform east to west, which is prime for tropical development.
The low pressure systems that form over Ethiopia, move across the Sahara, and enter the Atlantic ocean are becoming stronger, which will increase likelihood of development.
Finally, the ocean temperatures have warmed to at or above prime tropical development level.