FRIHOST FORUMS SEARCH FAQ TOS BLOGS COMPETITIONS
You are invited to Log in or Register a free Frihost Account!


The Law of Accelerating Returns





joshumu
In short, sense humans started developing tools we left biological evolution behind and continued with technological evolution. Evolution in general accelerates at an exponential rate (1,2,4,8,16,32...) and not at a linear rate (1,2,3,4,5...). This has been demonstrated throughout natural and human history. These evolutions are divided into paradigms, to which we are currently in moores law. Moores law states that chips will evolve at an exponential rate because the smaller we make transistors on a chip, the more transistors you can fit on a chip and the closer the transistor are to each other making there communication faster as well.
Now it is hypothesized that we are reaching a point in history where we will supersede our natural human capabilities, possibly through technology, and reach what is referred to as the Singularity. At this point, everything will inconceivably change. And that is why this is them most exciting time you could possibly hope to be alive. We are at a turning point. Check this out for more information on the law of accelerating returns & the singularity by Ray Kurzweil.
Mithrandir
I agree with the exponential growth of our technological advancement but I'm a little skeptical of the possible existance of a time when our advancements pass us in complexity. This "Singularity" sounds a like more like somthing from a fantasy book than a reality.
illini319
Evolution, in terms of the biological, is a constant. Putting any value or rate to it is purely a guess. If the article you link to is correct, that evolution is exponential with ever increasing complexity, then why is it that humans have significantly less genetic material than any tree? Or why is it that we have nearly the same number of genes as a fruitfly? No one really knows at what rate (or rates) evolution takes. There are inevitably stochastic events outside microevolutionary rates that can dramatically change the outcomes (major geologica/cosmological changes like an asteroid or something). So... I'm not sure where you were going with that end.
In terms of technological evolution, certainly there may come a time when we create sentient machines which have the ability to learn. Perhaps these machines can become self replicating along with the slight twist that each generation is incrementally improved from the previous. We may even call these things life. And, as humans, we may no longer be able to easily measure the evolutionary rate of this new species. But, this new species will also be subject to external evolutionary (or even devolutionary) forces just like us.
joshumu
The basis of when I said evolution is exponential is just when we see different species' coming into existence. 2 billion years for life, six million years for the hominid, 100,000 years for modern man. That is definitely more exponential then liner.
Rocky3478
So where are you getting those figures for life? What if the Earth is in fact, young? This can't be a law, because it isn't sure exactly how old the earth is...
joshumu
its from carbon dating
joshumu
Sorry, we seeming to be getting of track. I dont want to defend this point. Just put it out there as an intoresting possability. If you just check out the graphs is displays various exponential progressions in may fields. Im sure it can explain the whole thing better then I can.
paul_indo
joshumu wrote:
In short, sense humans started developing tools we left biological evolution behind and continued with technological evolution.


Seems to me you're confusing evolution (random unguided advancment due to natural selection) with developement (advancement controlled by intelligent guidence)

Evolution is still an unproven theory. Hence Darwins Theory of Evolution.
S3nd K3ys
paul_indo wrote:
joshumu wrote:
In short, sense humans started developing tools we left biological evolution behind and continued with technological evolution.


Seems to me you're confusing evolution (random unguided advancment due to natural selection) with developement (advancement controlled by intelligent guidence)

Evolution is still an unproven theory. Hence Darwins Theory of Evolution.


Agreed on the confusion you point out, but I'm sure the development of modern society has affected the evolvement of human kind.

Take body mass for example. It is smaller now that we are no longer nomads, hunting and killing. Also, the hair on our bodies has lessened likely due to the clothes and shelters we use.
joshumu
paul_indo wrote:

Evolution is still an unproven theory. Hence Darwins Theory of Evolution.


On that same note, gravity is a thoery, and we know less about it then evolution. But if we want to arugue these points we can start a thread in Religion section.
But no, im not confusing them, i actualy talked about them both. When i say technological evolution im sure i mean what you call 'development'. But 'evolution' and 'development' both run at a exponentail scale. Each paridigm eventuly reaches a point where it tops off and a new paridigm starts. When 'evolution' toped off, 'development' started. Right now were are in moores law, and when that tops off another paridigm will start. That point is the 'singularity'. In theory of course. But nothing is fact and im not going to end each sentence with 'in theory'.
simpleHalakhah
joshumu wrote:
Now it is hypothesized that we are reaching a point in history where we will supersede our natural human capabilities, possibly through technology, and reach what is referred to as the Singularity.


Technology can never accomplish more than the human mind can quantify or imagine; it will just do it faster. Since computers are programmed to process by people, and thus the possobilities of response are limited by the human mind's range - even a thinking computer that creates more advanced computers, will still have done nothing other than process faster.
joshumu
Who knows what is possable. All you need to do is deveolop a program that can learn and human supermicy is done for.
illini319
joshumu wrote:

On that same note, gravity is a thoery, and we know less about it then evolution. But if we want to arugue these points we can start a thread in Religion section.


I believe it's called the Law of Gravity. Nothing particularly theoretical about it (at least as far I know). Yes, evolution is still a theory (and will remain so, no matter how much evidence supports it). Often people will make the distinction between Law and Theory to exemplify the giant gap between the two concepts. In truth, law and theory are fundamentally different. BUT, certainly a theory, is much much closer to a law than a hypothesis. In a mathematical analogy, a Law is like the value "P". A theory is the limit value approaching P. i.e. a theory can only get infinitely close to a law but never quite make it. (In any case, the theory is pretty damn close to a law)

But that's really another conversation isn't it?

Define human supremacy???? that's a pretty lofty idea, I would say. Mind you... we still can't predict the weather. (the only reason we know what the weather willbe like is because we call our friends to the west, south and north of us...). Oh.. but some animals know when to hide because of a storm...
Donutey
the whole idea of exponential returns is based on perspective, because we've never done the things we've invented before we can't really see in the future and compare them to previous events.

i read in popular science that a "singularity" culture is supposed to happen around 2050~... lol they've been wrong before, but it's fun to think abou it.
joshumu
My mistake, i pulled the wrong memory. I mixed up with relitivity. Some other ones are continental drift, the existence of atoms, atomic theory and the notion that Earth orbits around the sun rather than vice versa. (that last one sounds strange so if its wrong blame national geographic. http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0411/feature1/

The only thing that im trying to say is that benchmarks in biological evolution appear at an expontal rate. But, you should elaborate on what you mean by perspective. It seams that things are based on perspective.
Synaesthetik
I think that technology is evolving quicker and quicker but to simply say that its evolving exponentially is a bit too simple. i think the human mind has limits and once those are reached the technology climb will slow down a great deal and plateau..... then again if we develop something that learns and has bigger potential and speed then the human mind and would most likely be immortal or close to then there will be no end.... .... ....
joshumu
Yup, thoes are pretty much the only ways we can go. Oh, and extintion also.
Synaesthetik
Exctinction is probally more feasable then people give credit
Related topics
Shenzhou 6 Safely Returns Taikonauts
New Superman Movie "Superman Returns"
You can't fight terrorism from the False side of the law
Bush Wiretapping power
War on Terror?
2nd LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS
Superman returns... Destined for greatness or disaster?
Copyright Law
Illegal Un-AuthorizedWireless Internet
Do you believe in ghosts?
I Need the Internet Broad Casting Software
New Cosmological theory.
Law school, anyone?
Superman Returns
Reply to topic    Frihost Forum Index -> Science -> General Science

FRIHOST HOME | FAQ | TOS | ABOUT US | CONTACT US | SITE MAP
© 2005-2011 Frihost, forums powered by phpBB.