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china russia brazil or india ?





akshar
among the bric nations which nation do you think will have great future

i feel it's india because
future lies in service sector and knowledge based industries which are india's key domains
DX-Blog
I don't think it will be one nation, I think it will be the eastern part of the world which will decide the future. They are coming up with a lot these days, even major western world companies are moving over to the east. I think the western world (Europe & US) won't have as much to say anymore in about 100 years. Europe perhaps will remain having some word seeing as to how a majority of Europe's companies are located in the Eastern countries, I dont know how this is with the US.

But well yeh, for my choice of the options you gave that would then give India and China a good future and perhaps Russia as well, but dunno about that. Russia just is a massive country, times are changing, but I think it still is hard to truly build something up there especially with that climate and all. People are pretty much spread out there as far as I know besides several major cities. It's kinda like Australia, lol Razz.
mariohs
I think it's Brazil, because... well... I live in Brazil! I hope it grows very very much Wink
Paul Knight
China for me. Their economy is growing the fastest and their huge labour force means that the sky is the limit.
kam311
Among the 4 you mentioned, they all have strengths, but you probably need to specify in what way. For example, India has a strong background in science and math, while China is doing a lot of industrial work nowadays and is changing the world economy. It's anybody's game in my opinion.
gonzo
Paul Knight wrote:
sky is the limit.


not until they break free of tyranny
snjripp
While Russia, India, Brazil, and China all have large populations I am not sure if there will be a leader that emerges from these four. All four will come on strong. US policy needs to consider this. These are countries that are proud of their respective heritage.

This is an excellent question. I would love to hear from more citizens of these four countries.
windrei
it must be China~~ as her economy is growing very fast~~
LandShark
Its going to be China, once they get a real goverment. India might have had a chance if theirs wasnt so corrupt. Russia, they might become it for a few years, but would ruin it fast and Brazil? what they got?
ahmad
China's economy is growing fast !!
India is invading the IT fields !!
Russia was one of the greatest nations one day ( remember the Soviet power ! )

kinda harb
but let me think ...

Brazil ??

hmmm ... They are just good on football Laughing lol
miau
at the moment... China
jamesmackle
It's got to be China. I have read that their economy is growing at an enormous rate, and they are taking a lot of business away from European companies and US companies.

I think in about 50 years time, they will be another super power; one to rival the old USSR maybe (but less rubbish).

Maybe we will all be dead from global warming by then though!
OnlyOneLife
CHINA,
They are at least taking action to limit religion and production.
Africa.... man they just have problems beyond anyone's control.
PuNGS
Well, I think it's China, although I'm brazilian . Their economy is growing fast, I their population is very capable of doing something nice.

I don't think Brazil will grow up much, because the corruption here is so present in every area of the country that we will never grow like that.
photon
i am an indian, and i think no single country can emerge a leader. while india has a strong IT workforce, china has IT, agritultural and mineral resources. so rather than just one nation, india-china-russia alliance will prove benificial for all the nations

and i dont know much about brazil, so cant comment on it
cnnet
great future ?
all may have
only if we try ourselves to develop
raman
I would say China for sure followed by India. Russia is not doing that well now but it should pick up in the future.
theo
i dunno
but i think china maybe
Devil
china's economy grew by 9.0 percent and indians 8.0 so not much difference there , but still china has got in to the world markets better then india , everything we use in our daily life is made cheaper in china,

they have cheap labour too , but i think this is not thier plus point , it is thier weak point , chinese dont speak very good english , but india has a army of good english speaking graduates . india is no1 in software , and china is no 1 in hardware , but chinese political problems are far more worse then india , countries like usa or from Europe dont want a strong china , cuz they are scared china will dominate them. instead they want india to become a super power to counter Chinese threat ,

so this is another bonus for india , european gov has put limitations on chinese imports , china's economy is highly based on exports , but in india that is not the case , india is bigger market then china , so if any country want to trade with india , it is going to profit them , which is not in the case of china ,

the only minus point in india is the curruption and very poor infrastructure

if india can only improve thier health care and build good roads , proper electricity , then there is no stopping india ,

Russia for the first time after the fall of the soviet union , is making good progree , they are slowing building thier country to a rich country again , but what will be russia's role in world politics remains to be seen ,


someone said that europe and usa will loose power and eastern countries will dominate the world , i strongly disagree , usa will still play a very important role in world politics for the next 50 years ,

it is europe i am worried about , european countries ruled the world , and became rich , but sadly the money is now running out , and they dont have a bright future , europe will depend on the eastern countries for trade ,

as for other eastern countries , japan ,brazil ,china , Russia and india will lead the world economies , and it will change the face of asia

and to answer the first post , i strongly feel that in the coming 20 years india will be on top of china . india and china are in the race , China is rabbit and India is a turtle ,
neosree
I think the future of all these 4 countries are good. They can excel in different areas.
illini319
China will be the most prominent player, I think. Their large workforce and investment into their economy is staggering. While many may think that their political system is holding them back, most should realize the startling difference between how the USSR failed, and how China is determined not to follow that path. It is in their socialism that they have become the factory of the world. The most critical turning point in their future would be their transition from manufacturing to service and high tech industries. Until they can lead, they cannot compete with modern western economies.
Shiva
no, no, no... The only country who would have a great futur is:

Russia!!! or, if you would, The United Socialistic Soviet Union!!!

They can create WAR!!! war is the only way to survive out there in the real world!!!

why should india have a great futur with service, if they are conquered by USSR?? then india will be russia and russia wil have the great service!!!

Russia will also be the worlds best spacerangers!!! the whole world will belong to the great USSR in the last end!!! the world will be perfeckt with clones of arnold swartzneger wandering around with a machingun, shooting small animals of inimportance!!!

or, maybe not.. Laughing
polit
As a possible world power China and India... I think, Brazil isn't in the same league but in the future it will be in the leader position of S. America. But all of them may have conflicts with the US because of their economy and geopolitical interests.
Russia... Ok, a military power and it has oil and gas reserves. But these resources will be depleted one day and a Russian GDP without these incomes... And they have several etnical problems in the Caucasus and demographical pressure in the Far East (chinese immigrants). So from the four mentioned countries I think, Russia have the face many difficulties...
What about Iran? And what about Africa and the Arabic states? What do you think?
statusfashions
I am an indian so i will always favour india.
but as of today there is real compitition between india and china.
some key points:
1. Indians have a very good command in english and this makes them globally accepted.
China on other hand are not so powered with english language.
2. Top asset for China is their production capacity.
It is fact that all indian small industries are close to shut down due to heavy dumping of chinese products( so may be he case with other countries)
3. India gets full support from US and Europe due to their fear from china.
4. China on the other hand supports pakistan and provides them with latest ammunition creating disturbance in subcontinent. ( due to the fact of known rivalry between INDIA and PAKISTAN)
5. china is also known to support the terrorist groups in east of india ( This is very rarely known to The outside world). Providing them both arms and shelter .
6. The corruption In india is at its peak.
7. The High Education and service orientation Makes India first choice for outsourcing and this is making India at the top right now.
shabda
I am an Indian. With that out way,
Right now china looks pretty much a rollercoster but we must remember that much of that is also hype created by chinese government. The Chinese have grossly undervalued theior currency, getting a very unfair advantage. But that advantage can only stay for so long. Also chinese forte is manufacturing.
India's forte is services. And it is a documented fact that services are growing much faster than manufacturing. Indias mastery of english language(My mother tongue is english, but I am more comfortable in english), along with a large educated workforce gives it a very big advantage in services.
The political system of India is much more matured than china. This of cource is very debatable, but democracy has a slower rate of growth than communism, but its much more sustainable.
windval
of course china~~

i think.....

because i am a chinese

and also i think that

china grow stronger than before
nopaniers
There's no reason why China and India cannot both go extremely well. In any case, European dominance is at an end.

Many people mentioned English as India's advantage over China. Well, I think that as the Chinese become more and more powerful, both economically and politically, Mandarin will become a more and more important language.

Personally, I'm Australian, and I am glad to see both countries doing well.
Devil
Australia is the most selfish and racist country in the world , but that is not the topic , so i will let it pass

china depends on taiwan , for trade , but taiwan has shown intrests of doing trade with india now , but they need political support , since india is a major power in the world now , and its voice is heard , on the other hand vietanam is also looking for support from india , cuz it doesnt trust either the chinese or the usa , so india could basically do to china with vietanam , what china did to india with pakistan ,

Japan favours india over china , so we have trade coming in from there too ,

i agree with someone who said mandarin is becoming important , now people in the USA are keeping chinese maids , so that thier children will learn chinese , they think it is the next big language ,

some stupid guy said of russia invading india ? it would be the last thing russia would ever do , russia is a good freind of india , and india and russia are working on many projects together , for ex: space and defence ,

Russia would never want to loose its freind in asia (india)

if u look at the world map , india has the kep position in asia , asia will become more powerfull in the future , and the usa , and europeans know that , so they want a freindly india , which is a democracy ,

Pakistan wont be any good to usa , and the only country which can fight the chinese is india ,

think about this , even if USA has the best missle technology , it cannot prevent a chinese missle from hitting them , cuz they will need some detectors near china , and india can provide that ,

think about this , Russia ,usa,europe and japan ,and many other small countries , want a stronger india ,
and all these countries are right now trying to limit chinese goods ,

so which country has a bright future ? Wink
magnusmoty
Devil wrote:
Australia is the most selfish and racist country in the world , but that is not the topic , so i will let it pass


NEGATIVE! Finland is the most selfish and racist country in the world!

I think that the Russia wil grow, but grow more slowly than India or Brazil.
but it is biger, and have better economics than they.
Devil
magnusmoty wrote:
Devil wrote:
Australia is the most selfish and racist country in the world , but that is not the topic , so i will let it pass


NEGATIVE! Finland is the most selfish and racist country in the world!

I think that the Russia wil grow, but grow more slowly than India or Brazil.
but it is biger, and have better economics than they.


how old are u boss ? u think russia has better economy then india ?

what does russia have ? other then oil , and weapons and lots of ice ?

russia is a big country alright , but it has one of the worst birth rate in the world . russia's political system sucks , thier space budget is limited , they make money by selling weapons to other countries like india ,
magnusmoty
Devil wrote:
magnusmoty wrote:
Devil wrote:
Australia is the most selfish and racist country in the world , but that is not the topic , so i will let it pass


NEGATIVE! Finland is the most selfish and racist country in the world!

I think that the Russia wil grow, but grow more slowly than India or Brazil.
but it is biger, and have better economics than they.


how old are u boss ? u think russia has better economy then india ?

what does russia have ? other then oil , and weapons and lots of ice ?

russia is a big country alright , but it has one of the worst birth rate in the world . russia's political system sucks , thier space budget is limited , they make money by selling weapons to other countries like india ,



what do you mean when you talk about thier space budget is limited? US space budget is unlimited?


russia's political system sucks - Roger that!


thier space budget is limited- but they ownd world space station knowd as "MIR"




what does russia have ? other then oil , and weapons and lots of ice ?
not as many ice as Grenland have.
they have wood.



but it has one of the worst birth rate in the world it birth was at 914. there is nothing bad in this


u think russia has better economy then india
yes, russia has no tea and elephants, but it has beter economics than india.



they make money by selling weapons to other countries like india

and? is it BAD?
Devil
magnusmoty wrote:
Devil wrote:
magnusmoty wrote:
Devil wrote:
Australia is the most selfish and racist country in the world , but that is not the topic , so i will let it pass


NEGATIVE! Finland is the most selfish and racist country in the world!

I think that the Russia wil grow, but grow more slowly than India or Brazil.
but it is biger, and have better economics than they.


how old are u boss ? u think russia has better economy then india ?

what does russia have ? other then oil , and weapons and lots of ice ?

russia is a big country alright , but it has one of the worst birth rate in the world . russia's political system sucks , thier space budget is limited , they make money by selling weapons to other countries like india ,



what do you mean when you talk about thier space budget is limited? US space budget is unlimited?


russia's political system sucks - Roger that!


thier space budget is limited- but they ownd world space station knowd as "MIR"




what does russia have ? other then oil , and weapons and lots of ice ?
not as many ice as Grenland have.
they have wood.



but it has one of the worst birth rate in the world it birth was at 914. there is nothing bad in this


u think russia has better economy then india
yes, russia has no tea and elephants, but it has beter economics than india.



they make money by selling weapons to other countries like india

and? is it BAD?


Let me tell u again , russia doesnt have better economy then india , india's economy is the 4th largest in the world , i dont know which world u live in ,

and yes russia makes a lot of money selling weapons to india , but now india is making its own weapons , ever heard of brahmos ? its a misille ,made by russia and india together , and no one in the world has this technology , even the USA is 10 years behind getting that technology ,

after the coldwar , russia's space budget was cut down , but the USA feared that all the nuclear scientist would go to other countries and spread the know-how , so USA started funding the Russian space program , there is no doubt that russia is no1 in the space , but they still lack money , even the space station u talked about , they had to give some parts to USA and Japan ,
luxtu
hard say about this in one word byt I think that future adhere to China
hofer
I'm Brazilian, our country has a great reserve of resources, good research centers, large area ..., in fact everything that a great potency has.
However weve never had a great liderance, our govern system is very corrupted, at least in these past 3 years it has been decreasing because some big dump was discovered and reported by the media.
nanagui
Brazil ,because.... I Like this country ... i live here!!!
Perfect!!!!!!!!
adiutrix
Not China, Russia possibly, India likely so is Brazil. Reasons: Although China claims to be Communist, they are anything but that. They have a MASSIVE difference between their poor and rich. The rich are ultra rich and the poor are ultra poor, IMO I think China might have another civil war some time. Russia is a developing country (I am Russiajn myself) but it is a VERY corrupted country selling its resources to everyone but using the minimum for itself. Military is crumbling but the budget is slowly growing, so I can see Russia as a non military power. India and Brazil are both doing very well in their nation's development. Indias population is growing steadily and so are its resources to accomodate the number of people not to mention their military (mostly Russian Razz ). It is true that their educational levels are rising. Brazil is simply doing well, developing its alcohol driven planes etc Razz. However, I do hope all countries develope well for their citizens.
tkcy
I would say its China and India. With the technology advancement in both of these countries and the amount of talents emerging from these two countries. China and India is gonna lead the whole asia to become the most dominant continent of the next decade. Wink

But well, in terms of soccer, Its gonna be at least a 100 tears later. :-p

Haha.
solarwind
LandShark wrote:
Its going to be China, once they get a real goverment. India might have had a chance if theirs wasnt so corrupt. Russia, they might become it for a few years, but would ruin it fast and Brazil? what they got?


Wow. India a corrupt government? Lol, you wish. India has a stable government. Yes, I have to admit that there is a lot of poverty there, but their government is growing the fastest and there is improvement every day. A lot of American attention is being diverted there to help out. Also, anyone heard of Falun Gong? (I think something like that, it's some sort of self controll, meditation thing...) Guess what..? In China, you get tortured/beat/murdered for practicing it. That is a bit extreme. That government is corrupt. Just search torture methods on google and a bunch of sites will pop up on Falun Gong practitioners gettiong tortured in 2003 and stuff.
solarwind
Wow, this thread is wicked. This should be stickied and made more active. Nice thread.
mattchun
You guys right, I'm in China and China is the corruptest country you've heard of. Even in internet, you don't have freedom, heard about GFW?
Rmgk
China = Economy overheats and they will be crying for liek..ages/ human rights FTW

India = errrr Population Overload horrid living conditions, i saw some univeristy prediction of a major crises in india in 10 years, cant remeber what from but i think it was population related

Brazil = Ummm maybe... worlds largest sugar exporter, sugar creates ethonol which is a form of fuel we will surely convert to sooner or later, although the country is overpopulated their standard of living is terrible, and there is complete inequality in the distribution of income of the nation

Russia = Go back to communism and maybe Razz, they have tonnes of resources, skilled workers and well they have been a superpower before so im sure they know something

Thats my thought.....in 2 minutes with no research lol
speedlikecy
i think china
gelbosten
i think all the 4 nations will have a good future.
personally,i am chinese,of course i hope my motherland can get back her lost resplendence .
india is also a great state.
selim06
I think China(actually many of Asian Countiries)...They have great population and work power...So nobody can stop them.
akshar
For a country with one billion anything is possible and if its India it is still probable.

Strong Economy and good culture makes it unique in the whole world and certainly they will rule the world one day.

The only competetion is from china who have same strong points and larger area. But if we combine Pakistan India Nepal and Srilanka I think they can be a good answer to china.
BlacKRoSeS
At the moment i am a bit addicted to Russia, i'm learning russian, and i like to read things about it. But Brazil is awesome too. For favorite i think i would go for Brazil, cus they're so proud of their country, and that's cool.
Michael B
I am going to start by ruleing out Russia. Why? Because there population groth is all ready going down. The rate that this is happening is very rapid. Another 50 years and Russia will be just about empty there fore they will have no world power.

People is Power

The same goes for China with their 1 child per parent. I think they will go pop some time down the track.
Long before they start to empty they will have massive problems with not enough workers to support the retired population.

This applies to the US and Europe as well to a lesser extent. And to Japan as well. This will mean that the world population in general will go down.

I have not seen anything about the population changes in India and Brazil so maybe they will be it, or maybe someone else unexpected.

Australia is sitting on something like 40% of the worlds Uraniun. If Nucular power take over coal that could make us very rich. I hope it dose because I think it would be better than coal. Did you know that if the US extracted Uraniun from coal ash they would get 800 tones of Uranium enough to power all there reactors with 300 tones left over. Coal ash is actuly a very conentrated source of Uraniun because most of the Coal gets burnt off as CO2.

And while talking about CO2 I am not so sure that Global Warming if it did happen would realy be much of a problem. The hotest part of the world is the tropics, which is also were most of the rain falls. So if the worlds gets hotter we will have more tropics with all that rain that comes with it.

So at any rate the next 100 years will be very interesting.
nhuabo
akshar wrote:
among the bric nations which nation do you think will have great future

i feel it's india because
future lies in service sector and knowledge based industries which are india's key domains

Absolutely China,China is a great Country with great progress.
In few years,she will become a BIG country in the world!
Indyan
India has a goot chance if the politicians become a bit more sensible. Currently all they are bothered about is pleasing the minority communities (read cruicial vote banks), at the cost of the nations development.
And, yes india needs to take some measures for population controll. They should start with extra tax for parents with more than 3 children. Currently in the rural areas every family has a football team of their own. Shocked
achowles
India is still lagging behind in many regards. Mastering one area is not enough to ensure success, although it has clearly been a boost to their economy.

China is growing at an almost worrying degree. The potential impact upon the environment is profound. The fact that the government shuns such concerns is also worrying. I'm not 90% sure on it's stability either. The government seems to be rigidly communist, but the populace 90% capitalist.

Brazil on the other hand seems to have a better grasp of dealing with environmental concerns and seems to be the best equipped to survive an oil shortage comparatively unscathed. So in the long run Brazil may well be the nation that has the brighter future.
mikakiev
China I suppose.Chinese nowadays are everywhere,they will rule the world in 20 years.
Michael B
Posting to 2 year old threads is normally frowned upon I believe mikakiev?

Michael
linkview
If we talk about capitalism, one the most important is the "mass consumption", so a country with a lot of people is the winner. Averall if the goverment try to improve it.
China has grew the sufficient to get the merit. But China continued been comunist, I guess for that reason USA had the cold war only with URSS and not against the comunism as they said. So if China changes to a goverment capitalist, China would manage the world economy as do it USA.

So for me actually is China, but with the time India.
standready
It will be interesting to watch. All labor and executives will get greedy. How that is managed will determine the long term outcome. Take a lost lesson from the United States! Look what happen to the steel industry and now the automobile makers.
j_f_k
china has a huge labour force willing to work for peanuts to produce goods. they are now at teh w same stage as teh japanese were in the 1960's (in those days you wouldn't buy a japanese car or a japanses misucal instrument becsause they were considered 'junk'). how that has changed! When they're quality improves they will be a force to be reckoned with - much more than Japan.


Even now, there are some chinese violins which can be brought for example which are as good as the middle range eurpoean ones or nearly as good as yamaha's - its only a matter or time.
akshar
Do not think in terms of Figures and statistics. I will tell you why.

As a sociological principle it is difficult to have a sustainable growth and a stable society unless you have a free society with enough freedom to think speak and do. That is how innovation comes forward and that is how a country actually prospers.

China is an economic superpower but the country is held together with mere force. The frustration of the common public is very likely to reach its limits as the divide between rich and poor goes on increasing. This will give rise to an economic model that will eventually turn very volatile.

China's economic might is largely due to it's manufacturing capabilities (which again all know well for poor quality). But remember as the time progresses it is going to be services that matter not the manufacturing.

Besides no country on the globe today views China as a friend nation (except the university of terrorim Pakistan).

I think Russia still need to be more open and democratic in order to grow rapidly. Similarly Brazil can be another great power only if its people realise and believe that THEY CAN.

I am an Indian and I feel its only the government that holds us back.
snowynight
It is really hard to say...
But actually China is better than India because most most people there are living a better life than Indian.

The racial repression there still exists (In some rural areas and small towns, the caste system is still very rigid.The Indian caste system describes the social stratification and social restrictions in the Indian subcontinent, in which social classes are defined by thousands of endogamous hereditary groups, often termed as jtis or castes. Within a jti, there exist exogamous groups known as gotras, the lineage or clan of a person, although in a handful of sub-castes like Shakadvipi, endogamy within a gotra is permitted and alternative mechanisms of restricting endogamy are used (e.g. banning endogamy within a surname)) and beggars are in groups in the street. So they are trying their best to narrow the gaps of the rich and the poor.

However their efforts ,there has been an increase in the number of the poor in India. In India, poverty at US$1.25 a day in 2005 increased from 420 million people in 1981 to 455 million in 2005, while the poverty rate as a share of the total population went from 60 percent in 1981 to 42 percent in 2005.The populaiton then is 1.1 billion.

While in China, the number of people living on less than US$1.25 a day in 2005 prices has dropped from 835 million in 1981 to 207 million in 2005. The population then is 1.3billion.
deanhills
China has more clearly defined objectives, and is more aggressive in following through on these. Russia is more powerful, but sometimes hamstrung by domestic conflicts and less transparent in its objectives and seeing these through. India is definitely prosperous right now, although do not know how the conflict with Pakistan is going to affect this, as well as the global economic crisis. Brazil is going places, but possibly its citizens do not have enough political freedom to really do justice to this. Also, the economic crisis may have serious repercussions for Brazil as well.
Fatality
It is hard to say exactly who will have a greater or the greatest future of the choices, but I do believe that India will come out above the rest. Not only is it a large country that focuses on service and IT related fields, but I truly believe that the people have what it takes to make the country move to greatness. I know a lot of us don't like having to talk to Indian help desks, but they do it because they want to progress and are productive. Sure the other countries listed will do well, but I think India will come out on top as far as industry.
officernarc
i think if china gets its shit together as far as human rights is concerned, they have the best chance. though, they need a lot more skilled labor before they can really stand on their own. china is kind of funny, in a sense, because what they have to offer the world right now as a country is pretty much just cheap labor. well, that and loose human rights regulations. i think perhaps we may see a civil war soon if the government doesn't change.

brazil's economy is really becoming a force to be reckoned with, however, and because of that, i think a lot of people will be surprised by them in the coming years. and because of it, the whole of south america will benefit from it. and considering that the united states can no longer afford to keep up the war on drugs, i think we can expect to see an influx of illicit substances worldwide.

india is in a far better place, at the moment, than china due to the fact that they seem to have the skilled labor that china doesn't. though i think india still requires a bit of development before they can really compete, but they're getting there.

russia is...i don't know what is going on with russia. i don't know if we'll really see them doing a whole lot of changing over the next little while. i feel like they're too embroiled in stupid things they shouldn't be bothering themselves with, perhaps.

it's really tough to say, due to the fact that china has a billion people and i can see them doing a lot better in the long run if only due to the sheer number of people they have, but i think that when the dust settles, everyone will be surprised.
PatTheGreat42
BRAZIL!

Wait, what's the question?
tony
akshar wrote:
among the bric nations which nation do you think will have great future

i feel it's india because
future lies in service sector and knowledge based industries which are india's key domains


My vote is for China. But India will certainly be a tough contender. Then Brazil. I don't see Russia moving forward as fast as these others.
hunnyhiteshseth
I dont know much about brazil so i wont comment on that. Buit between RIC this is what i think:

Russia has many oil & gas resources plus many weapons of USSR era which it can sell. So, i think in near future russia will be a force to reckon with. But it will peak when oil prices also peak. After that brief period it would start to decline. As technology progresses and new weapons come i think its might would be just finished.

China would make a great success story with so high growth. After russia it would be the major superpower. But i guess since its only export driven, once the global economy crash, it would loose its charm. i guess after 2050 the demand-driven economy of India will surely be one of the major one in world.
deanhills
Definitely China. According to Goldman Sachs China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2020. China and India will be the world's dominant supplier of goods and services in the 2020's. Brazil and Russia will become dominant in the supply of resources to the world. Brazil will be dominant in soy and iron, and Russia in oil and gas. Goldman Sachs in a 2010 report also predicts that China may surpass the US in equity market capitalization terms by 2030 and become the single largest equity market in the world.
Source: Wikipedia
achowles
China's biggest hurdle is its government which is diametrically opposed to the direction the rest of the country is heading in. Subsequently it's long overdue a sweeping array of industrial reforms; the lack of which are killing a great many people and poisoning many more.

If their government finally stops clinging to a failed set of ideals and embraces what the rest of the country already has, then they could easily regain their crown as the world's dominant nation.

India doesn't seem to have done anything like as much as China has to bring people out of poverty enough for them to be productive as they can be. There are also a great many severe sociological problems brought about by the fragmented nature of the country. However, unlike China, India only really needs time, money and a desire to address the issues they're faced with.

Brazil seems to have a great deal of potential in many ways. There's a desire to seek out and use alternative energy sources on a level that's hard to find anywhere else in the world. But then much of that potential seems to be focussed on one point in the country. There are massive problems when it comes to distribution of wealth resulting in extreme poverty. Equally there have been some extreme (final) solutions employed in addressing that issue.

Russia... I don't know. Capitalism has yet to do them any great favours and there seems to be some latent desire to return to the days of Stalin. When you'd rather live under the rule of someone who killed 40 million of his own people you know something is seriously wrong there.
standready
@deanhills: very good search.
When this post was started back in 2006, I would have said India but China is now doing well with industry but at what price to the environment? I would have thought that China would have learned from the United States errors but like the US, profit comes before the environment.

x3m3r3 wrote:
I think it's Brazil, because Embarassed

WHY???
mrjw
Bcause ,There are more people in chine,IF the Chinese can Yue their Wise to encourage people in the efficient way , teh Chinese can do it Quickly with your image,But................ I don`t know.
mukesh
I am also an indian so I always favour india
deanhills
achowles wrote:
China's biggest hurdle is its government which is diametrically opposed to the direction the rest of the country is heading in. Subsequently it's long overdue a sweeping array of industrial reforms; the lack of which are killing a great many people and poisoning many more.

If their government finally stops clinging to a failed set of ideals and embraces what the rest of the country already has, then they could easily regain their crown as the world's dominant nation.

India doesn't seem to have done anything like as much as China has to bring people out of poverty enough for them to be productive as they can be. There are also a great many severe sociological problems brought about by the fragmented nature of the country. However, unlike China, India only really needs time, money and a desire to address the issues they're faced with.

Brazil seems to have a great deal of potential in many ways. There's a desire to seek out and use alternative energy sources on a level that's hard to find anywhere else in the world. But then much of that potential seems to be focussed on one point in the country. There are massive problems when it comes to distribution of wealth resulting in extreme poverty. Equally there have been some extreme (final) solutions employed in addressing that issue.

Russia... I don't know. Capitalism has yet to do them any great favours and there seems to be some latent desire to return to the days of Stalin. When you'd rather live under the rule of someone who killed 40 million of his own people you know something is seriously wrong there.
This is a great post achowles. Made me think and questions came to mind. Do you think a revolution would be possible in China?

For a country with people who do not agree with its Government, China has made enormous progress in taking the world by storm with supply of cheap goods and services. It's currently in process of taking Africa over as well. Can one go as far to say that the success of China so far is more outside the country than inside the country? Goods are produced cheaply in the country, but it is the aggressive marketing of those goods and services outside the country that has made it into one of the leaders in trade? So maybe the Government has in a negative sense inspired its people to go out and do aggressive trade with other countries, by actually moving out and settling in those countries?

The culture in India is of course completely different to China's. There is quite a large jump from those who are middle class and wealthy to the poor. And you are right, India has great difficulty to move out of that. Probably ingrained in the Indian culture that those who are poor get exploited in order to make the wealthy even wealthier. One thing one can say is that India has an abundance of hungry and poor people who can be exploited for almost limitless cheap labour. So in that way having such a large percentage of poor people may work for India as well. But of course, one wonders for how long. There is always a point when people will come into revolt. So maybe there is a revolution lurking in India as well?

I agree totally with your views on Brazil. It also shares with India the inability to take care of the poor. In addition its political system is very unstable. Yet money talks and if they can get their resources to work for them, that will keep them going. Question is however for how long, as there would have to be a point of time when those resources become very expensive to extract.

I think Russia is OK in the same way that Brazil is. Oil and gas will give them the means of power and control. I can't help but being worried as well of what the effect of their mining will be on the environment. I don't think it will always be plain sailing for them to mine as aggressively as they have had so far.
speeDemon
India,

The country just has so much potential that the advancement required can't be denied to her.. Smile
achowles
deanhills wrote:
This is a great post achowles. Made me think and questions came to mind. Do you think a revolution would be possible in China?

For a country with people who do not agree with its Government, China has made enormous progress in taking the world by storm with supply of cheap goods and services. It's currently in process of taking Africa over as well. Can one go as far to say that the success of China so far is more outside the country than inside the country? Goods are produced cheaply in the country, but it is the aggressive marketing of those goods and services outside the country that has made it into one of the leaders in trade? So maybe the Government has in a negative sense inspired its people to go out and do aggressive trade with other countries, by actually moving out and settling in those countries?

The culture in India is of course completely different to China's. There is quite a large jump from those who are middle class and wealthy to the poor. And you are right, India has great difficulty to move out of that. Probably ingrained in the Indian culture that those who are poor get exploited in order to make the wealthy even wealthier. One thing one can say is that India has an abundance of hungry and poor people who can be exploited for almost limitless cheap labour. So in that way having such a large percentage of poor people may work for India as well. But of course, one wonders for how long. There is always a point when people will come into revolt. So maybe there is a revolution lurking in India as well?

I agree totally with your views on Brazil. It also shares with India the inability to take care of the poor. In addition its political system is very unstable. Yet money talks and if they can get their resources to work for them, that will keep them going. Question is however for how long, as there would have to be a point of time when those resources become very expensive to extract.

I think Russia is OK in the same way that Brazil is. Oil and gas will give them the means of power and control. I can't help but being worried as well of what the effect of their mining will be on the environment. I don't think it will always be plain sailing for them to mine as aggressively as they have had so far.


A revolution was fought in China to bring in the current regime - and a truly brutal affair it was too. I don't know if the Chinese are willing to risk something like that happening again so soon.

Take a look at Vietnam. Even with America's intervention the war to bring capitalism to the country was lost. But years later there has been a noticeable move towards capitalism, just as there has been in Russia and other so called communist states. So often it's best to play the waiting game and see these regimes fall apart on their own.

Ultimately communism is completely unworkable. Furthermore it has never once been brought into effect. What we wind up seeing in these failed attempts at communism is more akin to fascism. As such it's not sustainable as it can never become what was promised.

Due to the industrial revolution that China is undergoing and the extreme levels of pollution the country is suffering, China may simply not be able to wait for the industrial reforms it needs. If their government don't impose some regulation soon then they may face a worse backlash over that than they do over their human rights abuses.

I don't know if a revolution in India is at all likely, to be honest. For one thing we're looking at a very different culture. Or, more to the point, a very fragmented, isolated collection of cultures that are very different in nature to China. There is also the fact that China actively fought for social equality which is only going to add to the resentment that this has not gone the way many must have hoped.

I still don't think that Russia is very easy to read. On one hand you've got a lot of discontentment and disillusionment regarding their switch to capitalism. On the other hand you've got a populace that doesn't really expect any better.

Ultimately these systems are belief systems just like religions are. They can continue to function only as long as people believe in them. They're nothing without that belief. What do Russians believe in now? I don't have an answer to that.
deanhills
achowles wrote:
Due to the industrial revolution that China is undergoing and the extreme levels of pollution the country is suffering, China may simply not be able to wait for the industrial reforms it needs. If their government don't impose some regulation soon then they may face a worse backlash over that than they do over their human rights abuses.
I was wondering about all the worker suicides we have been hearing about as well. That has to be a sign in its own right of how desperate workers can become, as well as how depressed they are. Obviously some changes are badly needed.

achowles wrote:
I don't know if a revolution in India is at all likely, to be honest. For one thing we're looking at a very different culture. Or, more to the point, a very fragmented, isolated collection of cultures that are very different in nature to China. There is also the fact that China actively fought for social equality which is only going to add to the resentment that this has not gone the way many must have hoped.
Depends on whether they can keep the poor impoverished enough so that they can't protest their poverty. Ironically, if the Government should empower them that will have a very detrimental effect on the stability, as obviously the empowered will then make demands that they may not have been able to make in their mostly illiterate state. They will also demand to be paid better salaries. So cost of living will become more expensive as well as cost of goods for the world markets.

achowles wrote:
I still don't think that Russia is very easy to read. On one hand you've got a lot of discontentment and disillusionment regarding their switch to capitalism. On the other hand you've got a populace that doesn't really expect any better.

Ultimately these systems are belief systems just like religions are. They can continue to function only as long as people believe in them. They're nothing without that belief. What do Russians believe in now? I don't have an answer to that.

I agree. Russia is very unpredictable. I would imagine they are even unpredictable to one another in the Government. Smile
sudipbanerjee
I think it is India.
Reason;
i) Democracy
ii) Knowledge power
iii) growing Industry power
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