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Turkey Bird flu Spreads





710ths
There are heightened fears that bird flu may be spreading within Europe after Turkey confirmed 16 more people have tested positive with the deadly H5N1 strain.

Is this just one step to close to Briton. Can they really contain it and stop the spreading by migrating birds?

Would you still spend your holiday in Turkey?

Comments please
Vrythramax
I can't speak for eveyrone here, but I'm not taking any risks. This may all be media hype of some bizzare kind....but I think I'll have Roast Beef this year.
Rachael
i am really freaked out about this bird floo crisis. basically my entire family lives in the UK. and my mum wants to go over there soon. i live in Aus so there is a risk that we could contain and bring it over here. its terrible that so many people have already died cause of this disease, i hope that some one finds the cure before any one is killed. Crying or Very sad Sad
Vinylsearch
(uk)The government reckoms that it has stockpiled enough Bird Flu antidote to help the whole of the UK, if this is true then whoah we better watch those chicken extra carefully cos once it mutates and becomes contracible by humans its gonna be a bit of an armorgeddon, a bit like the plague in the 1600s
Jazz
I found out that they are taking samples of the bird flu from Turkey to the UK, I mean why cant they just test it in Turkey because if they are testing it and somehow get infected they could spread it across the whole of the UK. That is madness, sometimes I wonder if the government really know what they are doing.
Soulfire
Bird Flu has been discovered in Canada on a duck farm. All the ducks were slaughtered in an attempt to contain the virus, but it was not the deadly H5N1 strain, it was a different strain.

Nontheless, I believe the U.S. has banned importing from British Columbia, or Canada altogether. I'd have to look that up.
ahmad
Three kids today died on Turky cause of bird flu Sad
geeren
710ths wrote:
There are heightened fears that bird flu may be spreading within Europe after Turkey confirmed 16 more people have tested positive with the deadly H5N1 strain.

Is this just one step to close to Briton. Can they really contain it and stop the spreading by migrating birds?

Would you still spend your holiday in Turkey?

Comments please


europe must bob turkey than we have no turkys more hahaha
ealonfena
Bird flu in Turkey is only found in the villages of turkey and you all know that bird flu doesnt infect people from another people.It only infects from bird faeces and bird meat...So bird flu in Turkey is not so dangerous if you be careful about what you eat.And WHU(world health organisation)has claimed that Turkey is safe.
tolgaist
Bird flu is not only dangerous in turkey but also a risk for every country in other countries as well. Nobody can claim that turkey breeds those sick animals and send to other countries. yes!We export chicken to european countries but keep in mind that all of them have elected by some strict rules. so if you buy or eat a "branded" chicken, you dont have worry about it. That's what we do in turkey. We dont buy from those who sell chicken on market grounds .we buy from known firms like mudurnu or well known brands.

As a Turk I would recommend you to do like that;)

Tolga OZBEK
Ikonoklast
Just wait until it starts spreading from human to human, then and only then will we have a serious problem. Prediction:2 months
Marston
Pssh... Avian flu, Shmavian flu.
elcyron
ealonfena wrote:
Bird flu in Turkey is only found in the villages of turkey and you all know that bird flu doesnt infect people from another people.It only infects from bird faeces and bird meat...


partialy right, but viruses mutate/adapt/evolve or whatever it's called. i don't know anything about biology, but from what the news says it looks like there's a chance the H5N1virus mixes up with a human flu virus .
of course the no way near enough antidote so everybody panic, now!

seriously H5N1 is only the most recent livestockepidemy, the next one might be even more deadly. next years headline news might as well be

stay away from food, it will kill ya
bliushift
i heard today that theres rumors spreading about how kim chee can cure bird flu and sars.

but for real, its sad Sad that its causing this many deaths
Download
Omg it sux bigtime, its everywhere in the world !
please somebody stop it Neutral

Its too bad all the birds have to die Sad
biga57
Vinylsearch wrote:
(uk)The government reckoms that it has stockpiled enough Bird Flu antidote ....


I do not think there is a valid remedy against the bird flu virus as yet !!!!

If so, people wouldn't be so worried about the spreading of this disease !!!!!
neosree
Just like the movie Resident Evil, if this thing spread across the world and kill everyone - no it wont be!
Insanity
biga57 wrote:
Vinylsearch wrote:
(uk)The government reckoms that it has stockpiled enough Bird Flu antidote ....


I do not think there is a valid remedy against the bird flu virus as yet !!!!

If so, people wouldn't be so worried about the spreading of this disease !!!!!


There is not a 100% effective antiviral / vaccine against it at the time being, but there is a antiviral made by Roche called TamiFlu that has shown to be somewhat effective against the H5N1 strain. The problem is that Roche doesn't have the production capacities to make enough for everyone in the world, and I heard about how there's only one region in China that the drug can be harvested from.

That's why countries around the world are asking Roche to give out compulsory licenses so that generic versions to be made or something.
42mart2
I think the bird flu will spread into pretty much all the places on the earth, but I dont think that it will be vorse than the "plage".

That happened most up in the North, like;
England, Norway and other countries.
It spread also other places, but most here....
balend
wow this is really becoming a problem just hope it doesnt reach the US i dont think it could but its probably possible
Dekar
I think it's only a matter of time. I just hope a cure is found soon. It is real likely that many more people will die before then though.
darth_pyro
bliushift wrote:
i heard today that theres rumors spreading about how kim chee can cure bird flu and sars.


Kim chee? My step-mom is Korean, and she eats kim chee all the time. I know it's really good for you, but she has never claimed that it would cure any diseases. Strange. Maybe I'll ask her about it.
pjv
Maintain a healthy lifestyle so you won't get sick....
biga57
pjv wrote:
Maintain a healthy lifestyle so you won't get sick....


This is exactly what Hong Kong authorities used to say at the time when SARS was striking hard in HK.

That's right but it doesn't help to fight the disease.

Without any effective drug the only good weapon is really information.
People should be aware of playing and living with birds, domestic or wild.

I agree that sooner or later, if this thing goes on, this virus will mutate and became deadly dangerous as it spreads amongst humans.
Carl
I am currently in the southen half of Cyprus and there is basically no trace of any of the strain on the north or the south. But the British army bases in Cyprus are not accepting any bird or poultry products through.
joshdifabio
The worst scenario is pretty scary, check out the link below to see how countries are preparing for an outbreak.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4380014.stm
polit
[quote="Insanity"]
biga57 wrote:
Vinylsearch wrote:
(uk)The government reckoms that it has stockpiled enough Bird Flu antidote ....

I do not think there is a valid remedy against the bird flu virus as yet !!!!

There is not a 100% effective antiviral / vaccine against it at the time being[quote]

Against what? The main problem isn't the H5N1. Hungary have also produced vaccine against the bird flu, but an antiviral only effective against one flu strain. If we have to face only the H5N1, a few people will die, like in Asia or Turkey, but this is far away from a plague. But we can't have a vaccine against a virus strain which don't exist - and I dont' know any bird flu, which infects humans from humans. Only birds are vectors for humans at the moment.
yokyok
as long as birds migrate, it wont be limited with turkey,
atin
I have never before experienced such hysteria.
I will probably be the first person to die from a new disease resulting from bird flu. But until then, let's worry about something else, shall we?
toughtrio
Hope this doesnt spread like SARS and doesnot reach anywhere else.
710ths
Thanks for all your comments. However our worst fears seem to be getting closer. Here is the latest news. Source is NTLWorld News.

Bird flu found in Cyprus


European Union authorities have confirmed the presence of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu in a sample taken from a bird in Cyprus.

The finding was the latest sign that the virus, so far found mostly in Asia, was spreading westwards to the edges of Europe.

The EU's executive said in a statement: "The European Commission and the Turkish authorities have been informed by the Community Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza at Weybridge of the high pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in a sample taken from the area not under the effective control of the government of Cyprus."

It said it had banned the import of live animals or animal products from the Turkish Cypriot enclave into the EU, and added that it would be sending two experts to the area to investigate.

Bird flu has killed at least 83 people since it re-emerged in late 2003.

Currently, the H5N1 virus is not known to pass from human to human, but experts fear that this will become a possibility in time and result in a global pandemic which could kill millions of people.

Lets hope it stops there. I personally love Cyprus although I've only been to the Greek side and have made many friends. I hope they will be safe.
comrade_joe
A few points FYI (more from WHO at [http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/]):

I have been reading the posts here with great interest. In particular I think not enough distinction has been drawn between 'bird flu' and 'flu' as regards risk to human populations.

'bird flu' or more properly Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 Type A is a virus predominantly found in birds and some swine (though cases have been documented in zoo animals, e.g. tigers, etc) characterised by high mortality amongst domestic poultry (though ducks can remain asymptomatic and effective reservoirs of infection for (possibly) 10 days. Movement of migratory birds has been the primary driver of spread of the epidemic, as with most historical AIV epidemics. The current H5N1 strain probably first emerged around 1996.
Note that when we talk about the spread of the epidemic, we mean the spread of infected animals, mainly birds. *Not* the spread of human infections.

'human bird flu' normally means 'humans infected with the AIV-A H5N1 strain from a bird or human.' To date (7/2/2006) there have been 88 deaths from 165 confirmed cases around the world since WHO monitoring started - but all of these have occurred following transmission from birds, where the patient concerned was in regular, close contact with infected birds over a protacted period of time*. Thus there appears to be no significant danger to human populations due to the ongoing bird flu epidemic directly. Contrast this with the estimated 20,000 deaths that will occur in the UK this winter due to human influenza (mainly in the sick and infirm) out of a UK population of c.59 million people and it is certainly reasonable to say that 'bird flu' has been significantly over-hyped as a public health risk. Certainly there is currently no threat to the general (especiallu urban) public from:
    Eating poultry
    Feeding the ducks
    Visiting a friend in the country
    Visiting the zoo.

XXX WARNING - What follows is back-of-the-envelope stuff and NOT a prediction. You don't drive your car from watching Herbie reruns - so don't draw too many conclusions from the thought experiment that follows... XXX

However, another dimension to the epidemic exists. Given the high virulence of the AIV-A H5N1 strain, some observers suggest that were this strain to cross effectively into the human population retaining the same virulence, might it cause a human epidemic? With very important qualifiers, the answer is 'yes.' But it is very important to understand the qualifying assumptions, since the scale of model required is analogous to asking if our car will run out of petrol on a long journey because we decide to put 10 quid of petrol in the tank because we want to spend cash, instead of completely filling the tank but having to use our credit card for a 10.17 transaction; we may run out of petrol at the end of the journey, but only if the journey is just a bit longer, we drive slightly too fast and (say) take a minor detour along the way: If all conditions are met it is possible that a different outcome will occur, but it is unlikely that they will be.

With this in mind, what are the conditions that would have to be met, and do we have any precedent upon which to assess their likelihood? We can identify a number of steps that must happen, in sequence, in the same case, in order for a replication-competent human H5N1 strain of high virulence to emerge:

    i) A human must be infected by a bird.
    ii) Mutations must occur in the patient's viral population that allow for human-to-human transmissibility.
    iii) A sufficient innoculum of virus must be transferred to another human host to cause another infection.
    iv) The virulence of the strain must be preserved such that further infections can occur.


At first sight, it seems impossible that all the steps could not have happened already - run for the hills! But on looking more closely at the numbers, it becomes apparent that in fact we are dealing with a very unlikely event - not merely unlikely in a lay sense (it is unlikely that I'll win the national lottery - virtually impossible - but within a population of 60 million someone wins most weeks; winning the lottery is a statistically likely event), but unlikely in a statistical sense (say, out of the whole population of the world, there is a nonzero but small chance of it happening in the next 25 years.) Let's think a bit more about the numbers.

Firstly, how likely is any one human to be infected by a bird? There are a lot of humans and a lot of birds: this ought to be a common event. But the numbers aren't encouraging. Out of a human population of about 6.3 billion people, only about 150 have been infected to our knowledge. So (restricting ourselves from now on to orders-of-magnitude calculations, since this is a necessarily rough approximation) the probability of event one, grossly, is:

p(human infected from bird) = (humans infected) / (total humans)

or

10^2 / 10^9 = 10^-7

So we are already talking about a one in ten million chance that any given human will be infected by a bird, just the first step in our chain of required events. Admittedly, the human population as a whole interacts with the bird population in an aggregated manner (chicken farmers see more chickens than office workers) but even if we do the numbers on a subset of the human population (say, 1%, a more-than-conservative approach since only slightly less than half of the world's population still live in rural areas) we'll only increase the chance by a factor of around 100; not much of the total.

As for step 2, again the numbers look daunting. We all know viruses mutate 'rapidly', but remember that we are talking here in an evolutionary sense. As a guide, the mutation (substitution) rate in RNA viruses varies from 10^-3 to 10^-6 substitutions per site, per year**. In easier numbers, this is like saying that in a genome of 1,000,000 base pairs (long for a virus, most being from a few or tens of thousands of bases long) we might expect to see, on average, 1 to 1000 mutations a year. Not that many. And for AIV, with a genome of c.20,000bp and rate ~10^-3 s.site^-1.yr^-1, this suggests around 10 substitutions per year. Infections usually last roughly 3-10 days, (or about 1/100th of a year) so the probability of a mutation is in the area of 10^-1, or 0.1.
In addition though, not every mutation has an effect, let alone one as significant as allowing a virus to switch hosts; were this the case the idea and observation of 'different' viruses would be pointless and arbitrary, since every virus could easily infect every possible host! In fact, most mutations are silent - causing no biochemical change - while the few mutations that do cause change are actually slightly deleterious (harmful) in effect.
Furthermore, large adaptations such as those required to host switch usually require a number of mutations to happen in concert, with the probability of this occurring in one virus evaluated as the product of their individual probabilities. Thus if we required even three mutations and assume each one gives the change we want, the probability of all three occuring in a single virus is (1x10^-1)^3 = 10^-3, or 0.001. We are already back in the realms of tiny probability, even without considering the fact we have not considered where these mutations must occur on the genome, only that 3 mutations occur at unspecified points. Once this is taken into account the possible counterpoint (that one host may contain up to 10^9 viruses) is negated. In summary we can say (though only guess) that the probability of a single host infection cycle generating a strain of virus that is human-replication-competent is less than 1, and probably less than 10^-3.

How many viruses are required to be transmitted to the next host in order to cause an infection, assuming all are replication-competent? The answer is unclear: experience with HIV suggests somewhere from 1 to 10^5 are required. We'll be (extremely) generous to AIV and say only 1 virion is required; a probability of 1 (since this whole scenario assumes a patient comes into close contact with others - in fact a big assumption as WHO currently advises all national health agencies to isolate any patients manifesting possible symptoms, advice that has in the main been followed).

As for maintenance of virulence, two competing effects must be assessed. The first, known as fitness trade-off, shows that for any qualitative improvement in adaptation to a selection pressure, a decrease in overall fitness occurs; ramora fish are very well adapted to making a living by cleaning sharks but correspondingly poorer at general fish-type activities.
Secondly, though, history shows that sometimes sucessful cross-species (zoonotic) events result in increased virulence (HIV Group 1 being a powerful and relevant example.) Is this likely in the case of H5N1? It is difficult, perhaps impossible to evaluate numerically, but we can make some qualitative predictions. HIV is actually an endemic disease in simians (where it's known as SIV - Simian Immunodefficiency Virus); the simian population has a high level of innate resistance and adaptation to it stemming from hundreds of thousands of years' repeated contact and infection. Humans by contrast had no such experience, so when HIV crossed to humans (relatively closely related to chimps but immunologically naive to RNA immunodeficiency retroviruses) a high increase in virulence was observed.
What does this suggest about the paralogous situation with H5N1 today? The SIV - HIV event was characterised by a three main features: Phylogenetic proximity (relatedness) of donor species; recipient species immunological naivete; and donor population endemicity with tolerated chronic infection (logically, an increase in virulence is only really possible from a lower baseline virulence.) By comparison birds are phylogenetically distant from humans; who have substantial experience with endemic H-N- type influenza viruses closely related to H5N1; which in any case appears to have peak virulence in avian hosts (very lethal viruses (or any pathogen) don't normally cause epidemics (Ebola, LFV) since rapid host mortality usually prevents migration.)
Taking both into account it seems likely that a successful zoonotic transmission would result in a decrease or maintenance of (but not increase in) virulence. Probability of constant virulence therefore is from 10^0 to (say) 10^-4

So, taking all these into account we can construct the composite probability that a person infected by a bird will play host to a viral adaptation for human-to-human transmission that is transmitted at maintained (high) virulence. Since many of these are guesses we'll do two estimates, a best case scenario (BCS) and corresponding WCS.


    p(person infected):

      BCS: 10^-7
      WCS: 10^-5

    p(mutations for transmission acquired):

      BCS: 10^-3
      WCS: 10^0

    p(a sufficient innoculate of viruses transmitted to a susceptible host):

      BCS: 10^-5
      WCS: 10^0

    p(current (high) virulence maintained):

      BCS: 10^-4
      WCS: 10^0


This suggests estimates in the range:

    BCS: (10^-7)(10^-3)(10^-5)(10^-4) = 10^-19
    WCS: (10^-7)(10^0)(10^0)(10^0) = 10^-5


In effect, the chance this year of a highly lethal H5N1 virus that can infect human-to-human is somewhere between one in ten billion billion and one in a hundred thousand if every single virus in every single primarily infected human host aquires the necessary mutations, contact with another human always results in infection, and full infectivity is always maintained. To expect all (or any) of these conditions to hold is clearly asking a lot, so the real chance is certainly nearer the BCS. In fact, even violating any of the above only costs us a ten per cent chance, or 10^-1, the composite WCS probability still drops to (-5 - 1 -1 -1 = -8 ) 10^-8 - or one in a hundred million. Since there are only 60 times as many people as this in the whole world, even this very generous relaxation still gives little cause for concern.

Phew!

*Apart from two possible related cases in the Far East.
**The rate depends on the virus (but is more-or-less fixed for a given virus); HIV is nearer 10^-3; WEEV (Western Equine Encephalitis virus) is nearer 10^-5.
comrade_joe
.. last line should read:

"even IF violating any of the above only costs us a ten per cent chance"

not

"even violating any of the above only costs us a ten per cent chance"

(most violation costs discussed probably exceed 10^-1, in the 10^-3 - 10^-6 range!)
w010255
I wouldn't visit Turkey cause thats a country not organized well. But I would visit Italy since they have taken all measures. Nevertheless, the virus is spreading everywhere since birds fly from country to country daily. Would you stay in our home forever ?
w010255
Georgia Finds H5N1 Virus in Wild Swans
Reuters
Monday, February 27, 2006; Page


TBILISI, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Georgia has found the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus in wild swans, the head of the veterinary department at Georgia's Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.

"A laboratory in Georgia has established (the existence of) the H5N1 bird flu virus," Jambul Maglakelidze told Reuters, after tests on wild swans found on its Black Sea coast, near the border with Turkey.

The announcement confirms the first case of bird flu in Georgia, which borders Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The swans were found in a village in Adzhara, a semi-autonomous region not far from the Turkish city of Trabzon.

President Mikhail Saakashvili has declared a state of emergency in the area and domestic birds were being culled in the area around the village where the swans were found.

Reut07:22 02-27-06


=-==--=-=-=-=-=-==--=-==--=-==-=--=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

15 wild swans killed by H5N1 bird flu virus in France

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed 15 wild swans in southeastern France where two wild ducks and a turkey farm were contaminated by the disease, the Agriculture Ministry said.

News of the death of the swans, found on Sunday around the numerous ponds that dot the area, underscored the potential for the lethal virus to spread.

On Saturday, authorities confirmed that a nearby turkey farm of more than 11,000 birds had been contaminated, triggering fears of a collapse of the poultry industry in France - the first outbreak of the virus in commercial poultry in the European Union. Some 400 birds had died and the rest were slaughtered.

France, the EU's largest poultry producer, was working to control damage to poultry farmers. President Jacques Chirac, visiting Paris' annual agriculture fair Saturday, urged consumers not to panic, and to keep eating chicken.
dmhq
i think the bird flu would be a tragedy if it effected the whole world, because i absolutely LOVE chicken(especially roasted in a savory sauce) and it is my favorite type of meat so id hate it . ireally hope they fond an antidote not only for the sake of all the peoply dyind out theere(turkey, etc) but also for all the chicken lovers like me
mephisto73
Important questions:

So how many stocks does Dick Cheney own in the company holding the patent to Tamiflu, the most effective drug against the H5N1 strain?

How much money have DC made from the outbreak of the Avian Flu?

Look it up!

Further, the virus WILL mutate into a human-human variant sooner or later, lest it is retained and controlled. How a H5N1 epidemy will look like can only be speculated - it will depend on virulence and what kind of counter-measurements that is taken.
truebluejen
Scotland has it now Sad
selim06
truebluejen wrote:
Scotland has it now Sad

i hope so you will recover and get your health...Turkey hasn't very destroyed by it...Because our goverment has skipped it easily we've lost only 3 people...and it hasn't seem for 2month...
710ths
Many thanks for your comments and specially comrade_joe and his post, although a bit technical for me.

Latest news is that the swan found in Scotand would seem at this stage to be a isolated case. No other dead birds found have tested positive.

BUT lets not be fooled....its on its way.
Tvanag
I have read that every person can be effected by bird flue in following reasons:

1) if the person touches wild bird
2) if the person touches wild bird soil. This can be on the bench when sitting in the park, etc.
3) if the person eats bird meat that was infected
4) if the person has a dog or cat, the animal touching the bird things can be infected and the human can be infected by its own domestic pet.
5) never ever touch any feathers lying on the ground.
6) there is another possibility that bird which was infected with the disease and if he died in the water (lake, river, ocean, etc) the infection can cause damage for water habitants (fishes, etc) and be a treat for human beings.

So that's the rules not to catch the bird flue. be careful!
selim06
710ths wrote:
Many thanks for your comments and specially comrade_joe and his post, although a bit technical for me.

Latest news is that the swan found in Scotand would seem at this stage to be a isolated case. No other dead birds found have tested positive.

BUT lets not be fooled....its on its way.

is this about my comment?do you think i'm a foolish boy?Please explain it...
arniingi
I think birdflu has been for a long time,they just discovered it recently.
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