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Isn't it nuts how steady group statistics can be?





JoryRFerrell
When you look at stats for many things, it is kind of unnerving how steady things can remain, for
things which would seem like odd, random, rare occurrences. Take dog attack fatalities for example:

http://www.dogsbite.org/dog-bite-statistics-fatalities.php

The same goes for fatalities in vehicles:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

Apparently, the last year with a change of more than 10% in fatalities was 1982. Aside from that, the
amount of casualties remains relatively "regular" with very little real significant change. Year to year, you can predict that around 35,000 people will die in automobile accidents. Year to year, you can predict that around 100 people will be strangled to death, or roughly 800 are nearly guaranteed to be beaten to death with hands and feet:

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8

You would expect that being beaten to death by someone with their bare hands would be relatively rare, a "one-off" occurrence, and we would expect to see LARGE fluctuations in the number of people who suffer this fate year to year...but we don't. Instead, the numbers for many things such as the examples listed seem almost set in stone:

John: "Say...Max...can we have, say, a 500 less people die per year from toasters?"
Max: "Nope. The plan calls for at least 600 casualties by toaster per year."

Think I am just trying to make a point? Nope. It's Chuck Testa:

http://www.visitsealife.com/london/explore-our-creatures/sharkfactsandfigures/ (It's the second stat down...)

So, please take a look at the stats for homicide and kindly note that toasters are literally more likely to result in a fatality than a rifle.

You are more likely to be killed by a chair...than a terrorist.

Your doctor...he is possibly going to kill you Maybe he won't, but he'll definitely be doubling as the grim reaper for 400k other people this year, according to national stats...

Neat huh? Is it just me, or does this feel like a twilight zone issue? Razz
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