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Global warming works in mysterious ways





jmraker
The great lakes could break the all time record in percentage of ice coverage.
http://www.policymic.com/articles/84151/the-great-lakes-are-over-90-frozen-and-could-break-a-record-this-week
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/03/03/great-lakes-ice-coverage-record/5980063/

Since there's a big scientific consensus that global warming is an undeniable fact, which statement is true?
. Global warming is the cause. Global warming (aka climate change) has made the earth so hot that the great lakes have a chance of breaking an all time record in how frozen they are.
. Global warming is keeping the ice coverage down. Global warming (aka climate change) has had a disastrous effect by keeping the ice coverage less than it should have been been. The great lakes should be more frozen and more ice covered.


All the freezing cold weather is coming from the north pole, but the north pole is melting because it's either above freezing or it climate changed a lot warmer. You might have to be a global warming expert to know how freezing cold weather comes from a climate changed tropical north pole.
Ankhanu
It's really not that mysterious... and is falling in line with predictions. Global warming is a somewhat misleading term, especially for the general public, which doesn't get the difference between weather and climate; this is part of why climate change is a preferred term. Yes, global trends are warming temperatures, but, local trends may differ and can actually be colder.

The net result is climactic and weather instability... change, if you will. This means changes in wind patterns; changes in wind patterns cause more changes in local temperature, and changes water evaporation and deposition patterns.

Both of your gotcha questions are true. Climate change has raised the Earth's temperature to a point where classic jet stream (and other system) patterns have been altered, allowing cold polar air to circulate further south (in some areas), which has induced greater freezing in the Great Lakes region. Climate change has also resulted in higher temperatures and shorter winter seasons over the Great Lakes region in recent decades, resulting in prior reduced freezing. The net increase in global temperature has also led to the reduction of summer sea ice in the north polar region over the past several decades.
Climate change has not altered the fact that we have seasons and that the north cools down in our winter season Razz
jmraker
A few different google searches found nothing relevant for When or Who predicted the specific problems with the polar vortex.
I'm sure it's covered in the predictions that amount to "The climate will change"

Do the predictions predict that the polar vortex will get worse or better next year? How much worse?

When will the polar vortex stay/remain isolated within it's cap area?

Just wondering (the facts probably don't justify it)... if the vortex doesn't stop it's abnormal behavior one year with a longer and longer winter further and further south, and it reaches the equator triggering a short multi-year ice age, would the warming of the climate fuel the ice age?
(Could an ice age be caused by climate change caused by global warming)

Al Gore could have predicted it, but due to global cooling.
http://www.thedailyload.com/2014/01/al-gore-warned-of-deep-freeze-months-ago/
He was predicting global cooling in the 70s long before it became hip for him to predict global cooling.
Ankhanu
The prediction is instability, greater variation and more erratic weather patterns. No, they are not specific weather predictions... only a fool would expect them to be so, especially that on a good day we can only predict a day or two of local weather Razz

You're looking too short term for climate talk. An "age" is measured in millions of years; a subdivision of an Epoch... Years of patterns/trends are where climate talk belong, but we're talking decades, centuries, not a couple years.

Local weather can show a cooling trend while the global average shows a heating trend (which is this year's current pattern over much of North America)... that doesn't preclude the overall pattern of energy (heat) retention along the planet's surface and within the atmosphere.

Weather and climate are largely generated by differential heating of the planet surface, generating areas of high and low air density, inducing winds and influencing local and global water cycle patterns. As the total energy within the system changes, influencing the disequilibrium of heating and cooling, obviously the direction and magnitude of the winds, evaporation and deposition of water is going to change with it. With those changes are also changes in reflectance and absorption of solar radiation as the amount and quality of cloud, ice, water and plant cover changes...
I'm not going to pretend that the topic is simple, because it's not... and it's further confused by our innate sense of scale, both spatial and time, which is not well suited to the scale of climate discussion. That said, there are some concept within the subject that just aren't that hard to follow and connect the dots.
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