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The end of the desktop PC?





Da Rossa
Hi, a fellow brazilian posted a video in which he foresees the end of the desktop PC for most of us "ordinary, non-rich" people.

Basically, he speculates that, according to the current trend, we see the desktops sales dropping for the first time in 20 years. Also, there is a prediction about tablets taking #1 in sales in about 2015. Not to mention that, at least in Brazil, 56% of the households have a notebook as the main computer, against 44% of desktops.

Along the video he shows that most of the non-enthusiasts are only e-mail-Facebook-and-Twitter users so a tablet would be more than fine. The demand is way greater for portability and "easiness".

So, with the demand dropping, the price would jack up, and common computer elements such as a VGA or a desktop motherboard would be thousands of dollars. He combined this information with the fact that most CPU-hungry applications are actually professional, such as image and video editing, so professionals would be able to afford, but not "us". As of today, many things we can learn by ourselves, not paying for a course. If we can't have a machine at home, then we would have to go the schools offering those courses, where they have the appropriate "rigs".

Other evidence of the tablets being push towards us is Windows 8 ARM. As you can see, unlike previous versions of Windows, we have no option unless to use the Modern UI (metro), while on earlier versions we could switch to the classic start menu (the win98in XP, the XP menu in Vista and so on). It's like Microsoft is forcing us like she never did.

As for the PC Games, it would be a convenient way to push the entertainment towards the consoles, where piracy is easier to fight against.

At last, when it comes to storage, no problem. There is already a broad menu of cloud services. Could be handy, if wasn't for the fact that our files on the could can be easily monitored, either by the government or the corporations, not to mention that .mp3 files can be forbidden unless the user has the DRM.

To sum up: this will push us to the weaker tablets (which are easier to ship), to consoles, to denial of mp3, also forcing us to pay for courses instaed of self learning, as well as hurting our privacy with cloud solutions.

Did he miss anything in that line of thinking?
codegeek
Although I personally prefer a laptop for general purposes, I like desktops for gaming. I guess high end gaming laptops are available, but playing games on desktop computers has it's own charm. In any case, one can get a more powerful desktop computer for the same price as a laptop. So, it depends upon how one uses it. If portability were not an issue, I'd be a desktop guy forever. Very Happy
75alex
Quote:
So, with the demand dropping, the price would jack up,

Well normally when demand drops price decrease a lot, not the opposite thing ! Smile
Da Rossa
Well, but why some professional utilities, cameras for instance, are so restriced and so exponentially more expensive? It would be due to lack of supply, not lack of demand... Who would be the supplier? Many companies would retreat from the market.
badai
if you have family, desktop is not an option. you can't buy laptop for everybody, you can't let your kid use your notebook, and tablet or smartphone are just not viable for doing any real work.

so desktop it is.
Gregoric
Desktop PCs will not die as there will always be a country where they will sell wery well. What I mean are those countries whose society is not so rich to afford buying laptops which are still more expensive than the desktop PCs. The PCs may be available in countries where a laptops is a more convenient standard but - as I suppose - will not disappear from shops so easily.

Anyways, death of PCs is 'predicted' every time a new console is about to be release to make people but is instead of a PC...
badai
actually, in term of price, there is not much different. do you know that laptop cpu is cheaper than desktop? only other component make it slightly more expensive than desktop.

the desktop vs laptop is more about usage: how, why, what. if they can't afford laptop, then they can't afford desktop too and will go for netbook.

as long as people find bigger is better, and sharing desktop is more comfortable than sharing laptop, desktop will not die.
riteshk1
I don't think so that desktop PC is end because there are lots place where desktop is use, like colleges, school and according to me desktop is comfortable for work.
Da Rossa
Thanks for your opinions Smile
Cruxader
The desktop PC is definitely not dead or dying.

I think what the doom and gloom PC people don't realize is that desktop PCs don't become obsolete nearly as quickly as they once did. For example, I built a desktop PC in 2003 and used it up until almost 2011. Why was I able to do this? Because I upgraded it. I decided to build a new PC in late 2010 because my old PC's motherboard was finally starting to die and I wanted a SATA hard drive. I have no immediate plans on replacing my current PC. It does everything I need it to do. Now, I realize a lot of people don't build their own PCs, but my point is, I haven't really "bought" a PC since 1999. That's the last time I actually went to the store, or online, and purchased an "entire" desktop PC. I know MANY people who have a 7 or 8 year old PC that still use it on a daily basis.

Now, I know from your statistics about Brazil that 56% of households use a laptop as primary and 44% use a desktop as primary. I'd be interested to know what percent of the 56% uses a desktop on a regular basis somewhere other than home? My brother has 3 older teenage children. All of them have a laptop, my brother has a laptop, they also have a desktop PC. They all prefer to use the desktop PC when they can get to it. However, if you asked them they would probably all say they use their laptops more because someone else is using the desktop. My brother primarily uses a desktop at work. I primarily use a desktop at work too.

Long story short, statistics can be made to say just about anything you want them to, depending on how you spin them or choose to look at them.
Da Rossa
Cruxader, thanks for your feedback, but I don't have the specific information you're seeking. However, make note of those curious facts regarding tablets, Windows 8 and console videogames.

Also, I understand those young boys prefer using the desktop: that's because it's far more comfortable than a notebook. That's why the desktop is my way to go. But the thing is, the industry might want to start pushing the ordinary Joes to the tablets and make them feel they didn't lose a lot by abandoning gradually the desktop. After all, a tablet is comfortable too... in its own way, for most users: can we use a computer (even a laptop) in bed? No...
sysna
Yes this is the future, laptop instead of desktops and tablets instead of netbooks and soon even tablets will take place of gaming consoles. PCs were highly customizable but now with everything being USB , you will not need PC for connecting any thing.
Radar
Desktops, and desks in general, are a way of life. If there is an end in sight for the desktop, it's a while away. The technology might be moving at a rapid pace, convenience might be changing at a rapid pace, but I think the culture of workplaces isn't changing all that quickly.
Nick2008
Radar wrote:
Desktops, and desks in general, are a way of life. If there is an end in sight for the desktop, it's a while away. The technology might be moving at a rapid pace, convenience might be changing at a rapid pace, but I think the culture of workplaces isn't changing all that quickly.


Well said, Radar.

People may become more reliant on laptops, tablets, and smartphones as the years move on, but desktops will always be there. Desktops are generally more powerful, give the most bang for the buck, cheap to maintain, and easy to upgrade. On the other hand, phones and tablets quickly become obsolete as manufacturers like Apple roll out new models almost every year.
Nyasro
desktop never ends, as though there is tv, radio still exists
desktop and laptop are similar but uses are different.
Da Rossa
What about the desktops becoming much more expensive in the next few years?
Pande
Some good valid points in the OP, but I don't think things will be as drastic as that. Remember that the general user still demands more of their machine than a tablet could provide, even at the rate of that whatever-law about exponential growth.

We may see more people using wireless keyboards with their tablets and a tablet-stand to do serious work-related word processing.

I also think that 2D imaging is going to find a great home on tablets, with styluses but also with wireless mouse or even finger.

However, 3D image rendering will never find it's way into tablets. 3D modeling, maybe.

Video compositing (of any serious size), high poly modeling and render calculations will forever stay as they are: freely available and requiring a laptop at least.
Da Rossa
Thanks Pande.

Quote:
However, 3D image rendering will never find it's way into tablets. 3D modeling, maybe.

Video compositing (of any serious size), high poly modeling and render calculations will forever stay as they are: freely available and requiring a laptop at least.


But that's one of the points: I never said (or the man who came up with that idea) that the desktop PC would DIE. He said that it would become way more expensive and would be a specialist-tool only. And the two examples you gave are definitely not usually carried on by the average home user... so if I, an average guy, wanted to learn how to do 3D rendering, then I would have to seek a specialized company how could afford the PCs (workstations, in particular), and learn in loco, from there, not at home because it would be unaffordable.

Think like a 32GB-minimum-RAM-with-eight-core-Xeon Mac Pro would be the only "desktop" choice. would you buy one for your household?
kraljica
Nyasro wrote:
desktop never ends, as though there is tv, radio still exists
desktop and laptop are similar but uses are different.


+1 Desktop have to change, but it's never ends, cannot ends
crazyfffan
Laptop might become the mainstream but Desktop PCs will never die.
Desktop PCs are irreplaceable for heavy computing task, not just because their processors are way more powerful than a mobile processor, but mostly because heavy computation produces large amount of heat, and laptops simply can't stand that heat.
Desktop PCs are cheaper, much easier to fix, and not so easy to steal, so they will still be the mainstream in workplaces.
In short who ever says Desktop PCs will disappear doesn't really understand a thing about computer.
Da Rossa
Quote:
In short who ever says Desktop PCs will disappear doesn't really understand a thing about computer.

But the arguments used by the bringer of bad news are not that illogical...
chatrack
It is more easy to sit and study or work with a computer, because you need concentration in what ever
thing you do. A mobile device can cause distractions, though it is very mobile
Pippo90
We didn't mention gaming industry (or, at least, I didn't notice Very Happy ): video games are much more performant on desktop machines.

IMHO, it's true that there has been a declining trend of desktop computers recently, but no way they aren't going to die.
kaysch
The only reason I use a desktop PC is that it is more powerful. Several harddisks fit in there, there is more room for RAM, I can attach it to my TV and stereo more easily and it has more USB connection slots. The downside is that I need a laptop or a smartphone when I go travelling on business or for leisure.

Will it die eventually? Maybe, I don't see a functionality that could not be served by laptops, phones or other devices.

Would I mind? I do not really think so.
sysna
Yes laptops are the future and there will be no PC needed. You may need a PC to install an old PCI card or connecting a serial device but it is now many years that most devices are usb/bluetooth/wifi based and so they are laptop friendly. Also laptops eat less power and your bills will not suffer from high usage of your PC.

So i think soon PCs have to be used only for certain purposes like industrial usages and etc.
Da Rossa
No, please, I need a desktop. It is big, comfortable, versatile, powerful.... can use for almost everything. Only lacks portability but who cares? I won't be needing gaming or editing tools when en route!!
Vanilla
Da Rossa wrote:
No, please, I need a desktop. It is big, comfortable, versatile, powerful.... can use for almost everything. Only lacks portability but who cares? I won't be needing gaming or editing tools when en route!!


I bought a nexus 4 recently and since it arrived I didn't feel the need to turn on my computer. Guess I'm just being lazy, bit having everything in the palm of my hand is so much easier!
Da Rossa
But what exactly do you do, Vanilla?
abhinavm24
nooooo. Sad

i never had any Laughing
the first one i had was lenovo y410 3000.
heck its working stilll.

btw i love my asus very much. its got i7 8gb 1tb nvidia 630m Embarassed
Sodisna
Don't mean to bump, but I doubt the desktop market will die out anytime soon.
jajarvin
Desktop PC's real life time is much greater than the life time of for example tablets.
The life time of electronic components depends on their operation temperature.
Desktops have much better cooling systems than other microprocessor based devices.
Nyasro
i dont think desktop will ever end.
i dont think graphic designer wants to use laptop for their
design, they needs large screen desktop pc.

Deskotp and laptop or mobile have their respective uses.
Trechs
As other people mentioned above, while desktop computers might become obsolete for the everyday user they will still remain the choice for web designers, graphic designers, music producers and so much more.

This has to do with both the limitations of laptops in computer power(might not be the issue in few years) but also the screen size, a very important factor for the professionals.
Bluedoll
It is an interesting topic for sure, specially if you are a PC user and think in that world. Maybe companies experiment with us when they bring out new products like cloud computing, hand held units just to see if the consumer will bite? On the other hand if the consumer doesnt like something these companies will change back or give people something they ask for like for example in the gaming world. The market reflects changes as long as there are in the above example such as gamers that buy the products companies will supply them.

I am thinking it might be all about being trendy? When PCs first came in to being they were just new toys. Even the internet was a mystery. In the future, the way we use computers, the apps and the users may themselves change their habits. I mean like how apple saw non-pcs, their pod solve a need for people on the go.

Im not sure, maybe it depends on what people like doing online, what will happen in the gaming world, in education or on the social side of computing? Even forum sites like this might change. Forums can become a lot less popular and be replaced by other kinds of apps that do not require pc's so much?
Nyasro
As desktop or mobile device has its own purpose
so there wont be end of desktop, i think
Bluedoll
Nyasro wrote:
As desktop or mobile device has its own purpose
so there wont be end of desktop, i think
I think so too. I use only desktop. When I am out - I am out. Still you wonder what the rest of the world is doing or if you are now the minority?
Blummer
I don't think desktops will extinct either. I believe people will keep on using them for huge operation such as film editing. I use laptop all the time, but I need to work with graphics and I will definitely need a large desktop computer, trying to find the one that doesn't make much noise.
dabyd64
Tablets are for fun and light use.
You won't last too long if you have to write 10's of emails everyday on it Laughing
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