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Iran science output 4th worldwide in 2018





mqmpakistani
As per SCImago ranking for future science production Iran might become the world's fourth largest science producer in 2018 and ranking just behind China, US and UK. Here is the link to complete ranking for top 50 countries in 2018:

http://www.scimagolab.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/forecasting-excercise.pdf


Here is the image



according to this list, the three countries with the greatest "percentage" improvement from 2003 to 2010 are:

- Iran (575%)
- China (330%)
- Pakistan (322%)


I am from Pakistan. Really, we made great progress during the Gen. Perwaiz Musharraf time, but democracy just destroyed all the things in Pakistan. But on this subject I will talk some where else.
mqmpakistani
If Only Mullahs in Iran reconcile with the WEST (and give up their extremism) then it would be so much better for the world.

I keep on saying it again and again that US is not a natural ally of Saudia or other Arab Kingdoms, but their natural ally in the region is Iran.
Nick2008
I really don't see China becoming the dominant force in research output in the next 5 years. They may produce the most products and make most of the consumer technology we have, but in terms of actual, independent research and development - definitely not. I can't really think of any independently-developed Chinese technology created in the past 30 years that has had a significant impact on the world economy or international relations. The military may be China's most important sector for research output, but if one looks at their equipment, most of it is some sort of variant of Russian/Soviet technology. Practically all of the aircraft, tanks, and guns in the Chinese military are based off of Russian/Soviet technology. They even bought an old Soviet aircraft carrier (Varyag) last year that they refurbished for their use because developing a new aircraft carrier was not economically viable.

Simply put, reverse-engineering and cloning technology should NOT be considered producing science, which is what China has mostly done.
mqmpakistani
You are right Nick.

But KNOWLEDGE belongs to every one who does the hard work.

Earlier, CHINA used Russian equipment. But now they have become independent of Russia and no more reverse engineering or copying, but making their own J10, J20 etc.

At moment China has to catch the rest of world. Therefore, they don't need inventing the wheel once again. But there comes a time, when nothing will be left to reverse engineer or to copy.

China is making progress at dangerous pace.
ocalhoun
Two questions.

1- In the 'output' column of that chart, what are they measuring? Each country produced so many thousands of... what? Scientific papers? 'Scientific' papers? New technologies? What?

2- Who the heck came up with the 'expected in 2018' values? And how did they come up with them? And why did they decide Iran is going to jump way up in the ranks there?
mqmpakistani
ocalhoun wrote:
Two questions.

1- In the 'output' column of that chart, what are they measuring? Each country produced so many thousands of... what? Scientific papers? 'Scientific' papers? New technologies? What?

2- Who the heck came up with the 'expected in 2018' values? And how did they come up with them? And why did they decide Iran is going to jump way up in the ranks there?



This is a link to the Website of this Institute

http://www.scimagolab.com/

And they say:

Quote:
Scimago Institutions Rankings

The Scimago Institutions Rankings (SIR) project is a Research Evaluation Environment and Ranking Generator to analyze research outputs of universities and research-focused institutions. SIR offers a wealthy of analytical tools to help institutions monitor and assess their research outcomes. Using SIR, Research Managers will be supported in the process of making informed decisions to improve their institutions' research performance and increase funding opportunities.




2. They predicted this outcome in 2018, on the bases of Data of Scientific Output that is available to them for the last couple of years.


Here are other International Institutes who have given more details about Scientific Output in Iran:



Iran has the world's fastest growth rate in science and technology


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Iran


Quote:


International rankings
See
also: International
Rankings of Iran in Science and Technology


  • According to Scopus,
    Iran ranked 17th in terms of science production in the world in 2012
    with the production of 34,155 articles above Switzerland and Turkey.[148]


  • According to the Institute
    for Scientific Information (ISI),
    Iran increased its academic
    publishing output
    nearly ten fold from 1996 to 2004, and has been ranked first globally
    in terms of output growth rate (followed by China with a 3 fold
    increase).[149][150] In comparison, the only G8 countries in top 20 ranking
    with fastest performance improvement are Italy at tenth and Canada at
    13th globally.[149][150][151] Iran, China, India and Brazil are the only developing
    countries among 31 nations with 97.5% of the world's total scientific
    productivity. The remaining 162 developing countries contribute less
    than 2.5% of the world's scientific output.[152] Despite the massive
    improvement from 0.0003% of the global scientific output in 1970 to
    0.29% in 2003, still Iran's total share in the world's total output
    remained small.[153][154] According to Thomson
    Reuters, Iran has demonstrated a remarkable growth in science and
    technology over the past one decade, increasing its science and
    technology output fivefold from 2000 to 2008. Most of this growth has
    been in engineering and chemistry producing 1.4% of the
    world's total output in the period 2004–2008. By year 2008, Iranian
    science and technology output accounted for 1.02% of the world's total
    output (That is ~340000% growth in 37 years of 1970–2008).[155] 25% of scientific articles
    published in 2008 by Iran were international coauthorships.
    The top five countries coauthoring with Iranian scientists are US, UK,
    Canada, Germany and France.[156][157]


  • A 2010 report by Canadian research
    firm Science-Metrix has put Iran in the top rank globally in terms of
    growth in scientific productivity with a 14.4 growth index followed by
    South Korea with a 9.8 growth index.[158] Iran's growth rate in
    science and technology is 11 times more than the average growth of the
    world's output in 2009 and in terms of total output per year, Iran has
    already surpassed the total scientific output of countries like Sweden,
    Switzerland, Israel,
    Belgium, Denmark,
    Finland, Austria or that ofNorway.[159][160][161] Iran with a science and
    technology yearly growth rate of 25% is doubling its total output every
    three years and at this rate will reach the level of Canadian annual
    output in 2017.[162] The report further notes
    that Iran's scientific capability build-up has been the fastest in the
    past two decades and that this build-up is in part due to the Iraqi
    invasion of Iran, the subsequent bloody Iran
    Iraq war and Iran's
    high casualties due to the international sanctions in effect on Iran as
    compared to the international support Iraq enjoyed. The then
    technologically superior Iraq and its use of chemical
    weapons on
    Iranians, made Iran to embark on a very ambitious science developing
    program by mobilizing scientists in order to offset its international
    isolation, and this is most evident in the country's nuclear
    sciences advancement, which has in the past two decades grown by 8,400%
    as compared to the 34% for the rest of the world. This report further
    predicts that though Iran's scientific advancement as a response to its
    international isolation may remain a cause of concern for the world,
    all the while it may lead to a higher quality
    of life for the
    Iranian population but simultaneously and paradoxically will also
    isolate Iran even more because of the world's concern over Iran's
    technological advancements. Other findings of the report point out that
    the fastest growing sectors in Iran are Physics, Public health
    sciences, Engineering, Chemistry and Mathematics. Overall the growth
    has mostly occurred after 1980 and specially has been becoming faster
    since 1991 with a significant acceleration in 2002 and an explosive
    surge since 2005.[158][159][163][164][3][165] It has been argued that
    scientific and technological advancement besidesthe
    nuclear program is
    the main reason for United States worry about Iran, which may become a
    superpower in the future.[166][167][168] Some in Iranian scientific
    community see sanctions as a western conspiracy to stop Iran's rising
    rank in modern science and allege that some (western) countries want to
    monopolize modern technologies.[169]


  • As per US
    government report
    on science and engineering titled "Science
    and Engineering Indicators: 2010" prepared by National
    Science Foundation, Iran has the world's highest growth rate in
    Science & Engineering article output with an annual growth rate of
    25.7%. The report is introduced as a factual and policy neutral
    "...volume of record comprising the major high-quality quantitative
    data on the U.S. and international science and engineering enterprise".
    This report also notes that the very rapid growth rate of Iran inside a
    wider region was led by its growth in scientific instruments,
    pharmaceuticals, communications and semiconductors.[170][171][172][173][174]


  • The subsequent updated National
    Science Foundation report
    published in 2012 by US government under the name "Science
    and Engineering Indicators: 2012", has again put Iran first
    globally in terms of growth in science and engineering article output
    in the first decade of this millennium with an annual growth rate of
    25.2%.[175]


  • Iran ranked 49th for citations,
    42nd for papers, and 135th for citations per paper in 2005.[176] Their publication rate in
    international journals has quadrupled during the past decade. Although
    it is still low compared with the developed countries, this puts Iran
    in the first rank of Islamic countries.[19] According to a British
    government study (2002), Iran ranked 30th in the world in terms of
    scientific impact.[97]


  • According to a report by SJR (A
    Spanish sponsored scientific-data data) Iran ranked 25th in the world
    in scientific publications by volume in 2007 (a huge leap from the rank
    of 40 few years before).[177] As per the same source Iran
    ranked 20th and 17th by total output in 2010 and 2011 respectively.[178][179]


  • In 2008 report by Institute
    for Scientific Information (ISI),
    Iran ranked 32, 46 and 56 in Chemistry, Physics and Biology respectively among all
    science producing countries.[180]Iran
    ranked 15th in 2009 in the field of nanotechnology in terms of
    presenting articles.[101]


  • Science Watch reported in 2008 that
    Iran has the world's highest growth rate for citations in medical, environmental
    and ecological sciences.[181] According to the same
    source, Iran during the period 2005–2009, had produced 1.71% of world's
    total engineering papers, 1.68% of world's total chemistry papers and
    1.19% of world's total material sciences papers.[161]


  • According to the sixth report on
    "international comparative performance of UK research base" prepared in
    September 2009 by Britain based research firm Evidence andDepartment
    for Business, Innovation and Skills, Iran has increased its total
    output from 0.13% of world's output in 1999 to almost 1% of world's
    output in 2008. As per the same report Iran had doubled its biological
    sciences and health
    research out put in
    just two years (2006–2008). The report further notes that Iran by 2008
    had increased its output inphysical
    sciences by as much
    as ten times in ten years and its share in world's total output had
    reached 1.3%, comparing with US share of 20% and Chinese share of 18%.
    Similarly Iran's engineering output had grown to 1.6% of the world's
    output being greater than Belgium or Sweden and just smaller than
    Russia's output at 1.8%. During the period 1999–2008, Iran improved its science
    impact from 0.66 to
    1.07 above the world's average of 0.7 similar to Singapore's. In
    engineering Iran improved its impact and is already ahead of India,
    South Korea and Taiwan in engineering research performance. By 2008,
    Iran's share of most cited top 1% of world's papers was 0.25% of the
    world's total.[182]


  • As per French government report
    "L'Observatoire des sciences et des techniques (OST) 2010", Iran had
    the world's fastest growth rate in scientific article output between
    2003 and 2008 period at +219%, producing 0.8% of the world's total
    material sciences knowledge out put in 2008, the same as Israel. The
    fastest growing scientific field in Iran was medical sciences at 344%
    and the slowest growth was of chemistry at 128% with the growth for
    other fields being biology 342%, ecology 298%, physics 182%, basic
    sciences 285%, engineering 235% and mathematics at 255%. As per the
    same report among the countries that produced less than 2% of the
    world's science and technology, only Iran, Turkey and Brazil had the
    most dynamic growth in their scientific output, with Turkey and Brazil
    having a growth rate above 40% and Iran above 200% compared with South
    Korea and Taiwan growth rates at 31% and 37% respectively. Iran also
    was among the countries whose scientific visibility was growing fastest
    in the world such as China, Turkey, India and Singapore though all
    growing from a low visibility base.[183]


  • A bibliometric analysis of middle
    east was released
    by professional division of Thomson
    Reuters in 2011
    titled "Global Research Report Middle East" comparing scientific
    research in middle eastern countries with that of the world for the
    first decade of this century. The study findings rank Iran at second
    position after Turkey in terms of total scientific output with Turkey
    producing 1.9% of the world's total science output while Iran's share
    of world's total science output was at 1.3%. Total scientific output of
    14 countries surveyed including Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan,
    Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab
    Emirates and Yemen was just 4% of the world's total output; with Turkey
    and Iran producing the bulk of scientific research in the region. In
    terms of growth in scientific research, Iran was ranked first with 650%
    increase of its share in world's output and Turkey second with a growth
    of 270%. Turkey increased its research publication rate from 5000
    papers in year 2000 to nearly 22000 in the year 2009, while Iran's
    research publication started from a lower point of 1300 papers in year
    2000 and grew to 15000 papers in the year 2009 with a notable surge in
    Iranian growth after year 2004. In terms of production of highly cited papers, 1.7% of all Iranian
    papers in mathematics and 1.3% of papers in engineering fields attained
    highly cited status defined as most cited top 1% of world's
    publications, exceeding the world's average in citation
    impact for those
    fields. Overall Iran produces 0.48% of the world's highly cited output
    in all fields just about half of what would be expected for parity at
    1%. Comparative figures for other countries following Iran in the
    region are: Turkey producing 0.37% of the world's highly cited papers,
    Jordan 0.28%, Egypt 0.26% and Saudi Arabia 0.25%. External scientific
    collaboration accounted for 21% of the total research projects
    undertaken by researchers in Iran with largest collaborators being
    United States at 4.3%, United Kingdom at 3.3%, Canada 3.1%, Germany
    1.7% and Australia at 1.6%.[184]


  • In 2011, world's oldest scientific
    society and Britain's leading academic institution, the Royal
    Society in
    collaboration with Elsevier published a study named
    "Knowledge, networks and nations" surveying global scientific
    landscape. According to this survey Iran has the world's fastest growth
    rate in science and technology. During the period 1996–2008, Iran had
    increased its scientific output by 18 folds.[34][35][37][38][185][186][187][188][189][190][191]
ocalhoun
*looks at their website*

Looks legit, as a Spanish firm.

I was more than half expecting an Iranian-based operation.

Still not sure how the heck they come up with their ratings though.
What do all those numbers actually represent? They look an awful lot like quantities, but quantities of what?
deanhills
Looks as though they do it on the basis of output of research publications. Wonder how accurate it really makes it though:

Quote:
The SIR class the best universities and research institutions worldwide and analyze their performance following five indicators in production, collaboration and scientific impact based on scientific citations.

The report is compiled from data in the Scopus database (more than 16 million publications and 150 million citations) and includes research institutions from 84 countries on five continents, grouped in five research areas: government, higher education, health, industry and other.

The classification was developed by the SCImago research group, which brings together Spanish and Portuguese researchers (University of Granada, the Institute of Political and Public Welfare-CSIC, University of Madrid, Extremadura University, University of Alcala de Henares, and the University of Porto).

Source: http://www.upmc.fr/en/university/key_figures2/ranking/scimago_institutions_rankings_sir.html

Here is a copy of the last report containing information as well:
http://www.scimagoir.com/pdf/sir_2012_world_report.pdf

Quote:
The tables include institutions having published at least 100 scientific documents of any type, that is, articles, reviews, short reviews, letters, conference papers, etc., during the year 2010 as collected by worldwide leader scientific database Scopus by Elsevier. The report encompasses Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) as well as other research -focused organizations from different sizes, with different missions and from countries in the five continents. Institutions are grouped into five Institutional Sectors: Higher Education, Health System, Government Agencies, Corporations and Others.

To elaborate this report, we carry out the challenging task of identifying and disambiguating all the institutions through an overwhelming number of scientific articles, reviews and conference papers contained in Scopus. The task , which is carried out by a mix of computer and human means, comprises the identification and gathering of institution's affiliation variants under a unique identifiable form as well as the classification into institutional sectors. SIR World Reports 2012 is the most comprehensive ranking of Worldwide Research Institutions. Following the goal of embracing every institution around the world with meaningful scientific output, the ranking now includes 3,290 institutions that together are responsible for more than 80 % of worldwide scientific output during the term 2006 -10 as indexed in Elsevier’s Scopus database. The intended target audience of SIR World Report 2012 is formed by policymakers, research managers, researchers, media and general public interested in finding ou t about research performance of worldwide Institutions.


My question would be what about the research that isn't published in Scopus? How representative is Scopus really?
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