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Will Desktops ever be replaced by phone sized computers





chasbeen
I used a generic term phone sized computers
The answer is no unless they invent fold away screens somehow
So I suppose part of your answer must consider the viAbility of these creations

Is it possible that these screens could be projected from a hand held small device?
ocalhoun
Screen size isn't the most important factor.

Having a full size keyboard is essential for serious typing tasks, and having a real mouse is (nearly) essential for many image editing and artistic tasks...

Not to mention gaming.

You can downsize the actual computer all you want, but screens (be they physical or projected) and input devices need to stay large to be usable to their full potential.


That said, yes, phone size and tablet size computers will (and are) replace(ing) some computers... but they can never replace all computers.
bukaida
As the display technology is advancing fast, there may be a time when we will get folding keyboard and screen. Even better if it is a holographic projection ( Keyboard of such has already been developed at R & D level). So a portable device will be able to bridge the gap between big and small peripherals. The processing power is bound to increase in small space, with the introduction of Nano technology enabled processors.

An interesting effort with folding screen

However it is still far away from what we are asking for.
deanhills
Would be interesting if we would be able to have a virtual screen one day along the lines of a hologram. An electronic projection of a kind, without the need of screen hardware that we can bring up with our phone sized gadget? Question
Bluedoll
Interesting question. People will always want to sit at desks to do work. like writing but with the new tools and trend to hand held and voice tools advancing we might see less desktop ideas to computing. The big wall screens that are selling now have had an effect on how we interact with computers. Now we can be across the room.
spinout
probably, the only thing that needs attention of size is to produce graphics!
when we are in true color 100 mhz framerate in phone size then big tower in needless.

Or have I forgotten something? audio is no problem, memory is no problem, processing capasity for general needs is ok - just grapfix 3d is the bottleneck!
Parkour_Jarrod
dear lord no... look at net books they were all the rage for a bit then people realized the limitations involved in them and went back to 15.6" laptops... i highly doubt it...
deanhills
Parkour_Jarrod wrote:
dear lord no... look at net books they were all the rage for a bit then people realized the limitations involved in them and went back to 15.6" laptops... i highly doubt it...
Aha! Look whose back. Nice to see you posting again Parkour_Jarrod! How's University treating you?
Parkour_Jarrod
deanhills wrote:
Parkour_Jarrod wrote:
dear lord no... look at net books they were all the rage for a bit then people realized the limitations involved in them and went back to 15.6" laptops... i highly doubt it...
Aha! Look whose back. Nice to see you posting again Parkour_Jarrod! How's University treating you?


Sadly i didn't get into Uni ive been workin multiple jobs, working as a bartender and a theater in a different state than i was over 1000km away, and now trying to build up a film portfolio to get into uni...


thanks btw... also how come i don't get Frih$ anymore?
deanhills
Parkour_Jarrod wrote:
Sadly i didn't get into Uni ive been workin multiple jobs, working as a bartender and a theater in a different state than i was over 1000km away, and now trying to build up a film portfolio to get into uni...

thanks btw... also how come i don't get Frih$ anymore?
The Frih$ currency was dropped some time ago. We're now on coins only. So have had to shift from working on becoming a Frih$ millionaire to a Coin millionaire. Except the coins are worth more, so it will take me a little longer now. Twisted Evil
_AVG_
It's interesting ... when that happens (if it does, I think it should eventually), we'll have no need for a distinction between laptop/"mobile" computers and other working computers. They'll all be travel material as well as fully functional (either with hologram screens, or foldable screens, etc.) ... the biggest challenge towards such an invention is not the screen though, it's making a tiny and durable hard drive with a large storage capacity (much larger than the portable ones today).
standready
I don't think so. Handhelds are fine for a quick search and such but I certainly do not wish to do my CAD drawings on one, not even an iPud is really usable for creating drawings though viewing maybe editing is reasonable. I see screen size and storage capacity as drawbacks.
chasbeen
I suppose futue mobile devices will just plug into their big screen cousins. The big screens will be everywhere and will be able to access the Internet and you just plug in your high powered mobile to override default functionality
metalfreek
Nothing will replace the power of desktop computing and its flexibility. All those convenience of adding devices so easily is a great advantage. Besides, tablets will always be limited because you cannot provide power for a top end hardware device very long.

If in case someone develops a battery that can last weeks than its possible that desktop will be replaced with tablets and mobile devices.
kta_fh
For a while, speakers, keyboard, mouse, screen will prevail but we are in transition period using earphones, video glasses and kinect-class tech.

Eventually audio will be integrated into our ears, video will be integrated into our eyes/glasses, touch will be integrated into our fingers and movement into our joints. The size of the computer is very small when we have these input/output devices in use.

What about sharing a performance / movie / etc? Probably the A/V is P2P'd to all devices. No need for big screens any more.
Aredon
metalfreek wrote:

If in case someone develops a battery that can last weeks than its possible that desktop will be replaced with tablets and mobile devices.

In before fusion or fission power sources? Rolling Eyes
chasbeen
Wow integration into our bodies I did not think of that
Do I hear you saying do not bevrediculous?
Consider going to an interview up against an integrated individual?
How much faster they would be than you?
Scarey
What if the interviewer was an integrated individual?
Oh no
deanhills
chasbeen wrote:
Wow integration into our bodies I did not think of that
Do I hear you saying do not bevrediculous?
Consider going to an interview up against an integrated individual?
How much faster they would be than you?
Scarey
What if the interviewer was an integrated individual?
Oh no
Agreed. Sounds pretty scary. Just imagine babies at say age 4 or so having special implants for this kind of thing. Yeaks! Shocked
menino
I think the new generation loves the handhelds more than the desktops.
Their eyesight I guess is pretty good, and they are quite savvy using the shortcut keys on the mobile devices than using a big keyboard on the desktop.
I've seen some kids really use the small keyboards of mobiles really fast (and furious), and even seen people on the iphone using only one finger to type, and quite fast I might add.

I can't say if the desktop is dying, but it is much less required now than before, and is replaced by laptops and netbooks, at least for students.
The main thing going for desktops, is that it is cheaper, and can also be upgraded more cheaply than laptops.
bukaida
The present audio-video technology has some bottleneck. But with the introduction of Nano technology along with superconductors( in normal temperature), can expand the horizon further. Remember the size of 1st generation computers? And their processing powers? Now compare that with today's Smart Phones. Bigger is not always better in the field of technology.
ocalhoun
bukaida wrote:
Bigger is not always better in the field of technology.

Smaller is not always better either, at least in the components that directly interface with the user.

People tend to forget that sometimes.
Aredon
ocalhoun wrote:
bukaida wrote:
Bigger is not always better in the field of technology.

Smaller is not always better either, at least in the components that directly interface with the user.

People tend to forget that sometimes.
How would you feel about full size interfaces via projectors? I.E. Project the keyboard on the desk from your small computer.
bukaida
ocalhoun wrote:
bukaida wrote:
Bigger is not always better in the field of technology.

Smaller is not always better either, at least in the components that directly interface with the user.

People tend to forget that sometimes.


I intended to mean the CPU not the I/O devices. For I/O devices, I have already opted for holographic projection where you can have variable sized I/Os as per your requirement.
ocalhoun
Aredon wrote:
I.E. Project the keyboard on the desk from your small computer.

For a keyboard, tactile feel is very important, both to provide good feedback for a key-press, and to be able to find the right hand position without needing to look at it... So, projecting it on a flat surface wouldn't be as good.

Sure, some compromises can be made if you really need the portability, but for I/O devices* of most kinds, a full-size physical device is usually the best.

*Well, I guess I should say 'human interface devices' instead. A scanner, for example, is an I/O device, but who cares what size it is, so long as it can scan full-size pages one way or another...
inuyasha
I agree with you. The size of it may be the biggest problem. It's not easy to code with a touch screen or a small keyboard. Very Happy But for entertainment usages, that's probably already enough.
bukaida
ocalhoun wrote:

For a keyboard, tactile feel is very important, both to provide good feedback for a key-press, and to be able to find the right hand position without needing to look at it... So, projecting it on a flat surface wouldn't be as good.



But the rapid popularity of i-pads say something else. i-pad uses touch screen which doesnot have a good feedback for a key press. And it is used by millions who love chatting and blogging. It depends on how you are used to.

However any future device must have the backward compatibility. So attaching a normal keyboard should not be a problem for the proposed device. Smile
pll
They will always need big computers. To keep the smallest computers working Smile

(example : the server farms) Cool
chasbeen
The first computers use to fill large rooms and have only a fraction of the power of modern day hand helds.
Wait a minute! Maybe we are all wrong. (Although I'm probably nearest what actually going to happen:)
ocalhoun
bukaida wrote:

i-pad uses touch screen which doesnot have a good feedback for a key press. And it is used by millions who love chatting and blogging.

And that's fine for chatting and blogging.

Typing up a 30 page research paper, or coding a new 10,000 line piece of software though?
Much more typing intensive, and will be much quicker and easier with a real keyboard. -- Particularly the coding, which requires many special characters that are convenient on real, full-size keyboards, but often horribly inconvenient on the on-screen touch keyboards.


...For people who use computers for more than just angry birds and updating Facebook, a full-featured input device is nearly irreplaceable.
mazito
i think yes if you mean about wide activities that can be done with the desktops PC, but not all in the new devices

but now (and some year to date) the computing world is evolving to diferents spicies evolved from a primary PC, now we have a lot o machines that some appear not to have any relation with the first one.
deanhills
mazito wrote:
i think yes if you mean about wide activities that can be done with the desktops PC, but not all in the new devices

but now (and some year to date) the computing world is evolving to diferents spicies evolved from a primary PC, now we have a lot o machines that some appear not to have any relation with the first one.
True. I was watching one of my colleagues today working his iPhone by sliding the screens on the touch screen - looks pretty cool. I guess I'm going to be left behind if I don't get either an iPhone or iPad very soon. Then again, I still prefer to sit down (at my own convenience and in my own time) at a desktop computer. I'd rather invest the extra cash in improved hardware.
ankitdatashn
As one person here mentioned that if the phone folds away to have matrix of screen then it might be replaced and by desktop here I am assuming desktop + laptop. Also there can be one possibility that maybe there can be something to wear on eye like the soldiers wear which has high resolution display, but yeah typing can be a bit of problem, but that might be solved by mind reader inputs that automatically take in the inputs that the user is thinking...

Future is afterall future, time will tell!! Smile
mazito
deanhills wrote:
mazito wrote:
i think yes if you mean about wide activities that can be done with the desktops PC, but not all in the new devices

but now (and some year to date) the computing world is evolving to diferents spicies evolved from a primary PC, now we have a lot o machines that some appear not to have any relation with the first one.
True. I was watching one of my colleagues today working his iPhone by sliding the screens on the touch screen - looks pretty cool. I guess I'm going to be left behind if I don't get either an iPhone or iPad very soon. Then again, I still prefer to sit down (at my own convenience and in my own time) at a desktop computer. I'd rather invest the extra cash in improved hardware.



the most important point is IMHO that the technology is pretty cool, but if you dont use it is just luxury

i have a Cell Phone Galaxy SII is pretty damn good for me for my private life but most for work (for my two jobs) so i am a am beliver on tech, but there is a lot of people that this devices is just status not help in any way
bukaida
ocalhoun wrote:
bukaida wrote:

i-pad uses touch screen which doesnot have a good feedback for a key press. And it is used by millions who love chatting and blogging.

And that's fine for chatting and blogging.

Typing up a 30 page research paper, or coding a new 10,000 line piece of software though?
Much more typing intensive, and will be much quicker and easier with a real keyboard. -- Particularly the coding, which requires many special characters that are convenient on real, full-size keyboards, but often horribly inconvenient on the on-screen touch keyboards.


...For people who use computers for more than just angry birds and updating Facebook, a full-featured input device is nearly irreplaceable.


It depends on how you are used to. In my locality, there are still people who love to use typewriter over computer ( for typing only). Even the traditional keyboards have so many designs and shape.May be the future generation will be more comfortable with the later one.
belltown
Once nano-neural implant technology gets perfected we won't need keyboards -- or mice -- or screens. We'll be able to think what we want the processors to do, and see responses in our minds. A hundred years from now our ancestors will be going to the tech museums and laughing at how primitive the 21st Century technology was when people actually had to use their hands to input data into giant-sized "smart"-phones.
EnterpriseTech
We'll set the computer which contains a holographic projector wherever we want.
Pants will have a built-in keyboard and trackpad for input.

Actually, I remember seeing a demo of something that was pretty cool. ... The person wore this projector like a necklace and if he wanted to do something on the computer he was carrying around then he could project it onto one of his hands or something like a wall and use it as a touch screen. ... Pretty awesome stuff.
BigGeek
I have to say no on this one. Sure the smaller tablets and smart phones are replacing the computer in some uses, especially portable. But no way, a tablet or smart phone just does not have the capacity to type and edit images the way a laptop of desktop PC can.

Ocalhoun said it best, they will never replace the PC for everything. Anyone that has ever done documentation, manuals, image editing and the like will testify to the fact that you just can't do that kind of work with any of the tablets or the smart phones.

Plus, ask any graphic artist that uses a workstation with dual monitors, you just can't get that sort of production out of a small screen.

Just my 2 cents on the subject for you Cool
bukaida
probably you are trying to compare w.r.t current technology avaiable. But we are talking about the technology to come.
Insanity
I think that phones will always be too small to be efficient at regular computing. There may be improvements over time, but I somehow doubt that they can be kept to the same standards as current desktops. It seems as if smartphones are really powerful and fast, and almost like a real computer, but then again, desktops have also improved by the same rate. By the time phones get to the speed and capacity and power as desktops today, the desktops will be even more powerful. This means that phones can never replace desktops because it will be a constant race and desktops will always be further ahead. Unless it comes to the point where desktops stop improving and phones will start to catch up. But there's so much more innovation needed for phones.
eclipious
For general users, maybe. Generally users only need to use computer for Internet, Email, Word processing .... and that's it, so really phone devices can easily do that if the form factor becomes fast enough (both the device and the Internet service) and cheaper.

Overall though desktops will not be replaced do the the sheer horsepower needed for scientific computing, for system administration on servers that also support the Internet and for those hardcore gamers that need the latest and greatest. If the form factor gets powerful enough for a phone to replace a desktop then it means the regular form factor will be EXTREMELY powerful as well and many would benefit from that.

Also who wouldn't want 3 monitor screens or more for productivity Very Happy
ocalhoun
bukaida wrote:
probably you are trying to compare w.r.t current technology avaiable. But we are talking about the technology to come.

You're assuming that phone-sized computers will advance further, while desktops will stay the same.

For every advance in portable computing, there are advances too in desktop computing... And the more spacious, more easily extensible platform of a desktop will always have some edges over smaller designs.

(At least until the point somebody else mentioned -- when people just get implants to communicate directly with machines... at which point, both desktops and phone-sized computers will begin to become obsolete.)
bukaida
I am trying to say that the horizon between the two will be blurred and there will be a all purpose single device. Wink
IceCreamTruck
OK... I do have some news that definitely should end the debate, and hopefully spawn some new debate at the same time.

As it turns out Android really is taking over. They have announced the development of many home computer models that are basically disposable because they cost a whopping $25. That means you can have a fully functional home computer unit given to you when you sign up for two or more years of internet service. Careful, or they will rent you a $25 dollar item for $5 a month for the life of your account! Why pay more than $1000 for a killer laptop when you can get a multi-core android device that browses the net and checks email for often times less than the usual retail $299 if you bargain hunt for used models and manufacturer refurbished, or overstock.

Right now the "Bill Gates" and "Steve Jobs" of our time are inventing new, small, android core units. these capable devices are really changing the face of computers... software, as it turns out, is king. The more compatible your software is with this subtle change in computing then, in my opinion, the more profitable you will be in this coming "sweep" of internet usage. Android refrigerators, dryers, garage door openers, home security systems, and family member gps location service for parents... all for $25 dollars a pop... IT'S OVER! This is the death of computer repair -- hello computer recycling! I imagine there used to be cell phone repair men when cell phones were carried around in brief cases, and now there are old cell phone donation services. Software is king because it's a race to be as addictive as angry birds or provide a solid service with software that is compatible with as many devices as possible. You can tie software together in layouts that allows you to easily open the garage door, which starts the coffee and sets the bathtub timer for 15minutes/45 degrees Celsius. It should also conveniently remind you that the dryer went off 30 minutes ago, and you can push button set it to run wrinkle guard. Since all of these devices are WiFi and Bluetooth capable your music and currently running tv program can virtually follow you around the house, granted... you must be willing to pony up the monthly cost of the cloud app service of your choice. Pretty soon you won't own any more apps... they will let you borrow the app, as long as your monthly account is current.

BIG changes... that's all I'm really talking about! Smile
stiflerx
I'll not like this much, I'm more into chubby instead of size zero Razz
bukaida
And the security issue? Perhaps the bedroom of the house will not be secured from the hackers then. Something like the door locks are better kept manual.
pll
We will need the biggest computers to be able to develop the smallest ones.
IceCreamTruck
bukaida wrote:
I am trying to say that the horizon between the two will be blurred and there will be a all purpose single device. Wink


Not until constant internet access is global. For now there is a huge gap between servers that are always online, and the thought of running services like the "never sleep" servers provide from powerful personal computer units. Once everyone has constant global internet access, then it's possible a lot of web services will be run straight from personal computing devices, but until such time there isn't a one size fits all in the business world. More importantly, these services will never scale down so far is to be put on personal computers, or phones, as long as constant, guaranteed, internet access is not provided to them.

As it stands serving out from a normal personal internet connection isn't really possible because the ISPs limit the upload speed. It's a regulator, just like on your car, that doesn't let you get into too much trouble. They could allow any device to serve, but this is a huge copyright concern, so they limit user connections down.

Maybe, one day, people will be carrying around super computers which will host their own public web services, but we're still a ways off from that.
bukaida
Look beyond what you see--Rafiki --The lion king
EnterpriseTech
How about this Ubuntu for Android thing? I think something like this could end up eliminating desktop PCs, especially if MS puts Windows on their phones and Apple puts Mac OS on the iPhone so that plugging into a monitor lets the full desktop OS come out and play.

Eventually though, it'd be nice to have a single OS that's good for mobile and full desktop use.
IceCreamTruck
EnterpriseTech wrote:
How about this Ubuntu for Android thing? I think something like this could end up eliminating desktop PCs, especially if MS puts Windows on their phones and Apple puts Mac OS on the iPhone so that plugging into a monitor lets the full desktop OS come out and play.

Eventually though, it'd be nice to have a single OS that's good for mobile and full desktop use.


Someone needs to design the computer cloud service that databases all computer settings and theme so that all you have to do is create a user account, and all computers OS types only have to be set up once by you. The only way I see to get it done now is with a program that is windows registry aware, and can easily swap out any of the style settings, folder settings, and such... I can even see after you've basically conquered all operating systems and devices with your user interface software, you'd do well in grouping the similar settings that span multiple operating systems, and further simplifying the user experience. The backbone of the service would be storing this information online, so in the event of a computer crash all the person has to do is get the computer booted, open a website to the cloud service, and the computer is automatically updated to the user settings of choice.

No one has really made headway on this idea that I have seen. I have started to see interfaces that basically overlay the OS with a common structure and as this idea evolves then I'm sure we'll see more and more cloud services grabbing at your settings and pulling them into the sky. I can't wait because I can't even begin to tell you the number of times I've told a windows machine to show file extensions. Josh, I'd like to have that time in my life back or have something to show for it!

And yes... if I didn't answer your question about linux taking over, the answer was yes. Basically anything good developed in linux does affect all the other players, so we just need to get cracking on a user interface that works on redhat, mac os, windows, android, and ubuntu, and then the cloud services shouldn't be too far behind that! should they?

You could even be like Bill Gates on this kind of project... just figure out what you need, and you don't have to know anything about code!
chartcentral
I'd like to think that the best scenario would not be for phone-sized gadgets to replace desktop computers, but for the devices to complement each other. (Although on another note, laptops could and might probably replace desktop PCs in the future. I hope not, but we'll see.)
ocalhoun
IceCreamTruck wrote:

Someone needs to design the computer cloud service that databases all computer settings and theme so that all you have to do is create a user account, and all computers OS types only have to be set up once by you.

...But I want my computers all set up differently...
I've got an internet/general computer, a gaming/video computer, a server, an image editing/web development computer, and a small laptop for taking to school...

All are configured very differently, each optimized for its particular task(s), to make the configuration uniform to all of them would make them (at least all but one) worse at what they do.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
IceCreamTruck wrote:

Someone needs to design the computer cloud service that databases all computer settings and theme so that all you have to do is create a user account, and all computers OS types only have to be set up once by you.

...But I want my computers all set up differently...
I've got an internet/general computer, a gaming/video computer, a server, an image editing/web development computer, and a small laptop for taking to school...

All are configured very differently, each optimized for its particular task(s), to make the configuration uniform to all of them would make them (at least all but one) worse at what they do.
I wouldn't expect anything less from you Ocalhoun. Just bowls me over as per usual!!!! Along "WOW!!!!" lines ... Cool
lovescience
When people can have choice of light weight and big screen for their phone and it can process things from internet to every tools people need for tasks.

However, if current phone can meet certain people's need for their tasks and the screen size is fit for these tasks.

The phone could replace their desktop computer.
EnterpriseTech
IceCreamTruck wrote:
EnterpriseTech wrote:
How about this Ubuntu for Android thing? I think something like this could end up eliminating desktop PCs, especially if MS puts Windows on their phones and Apple puts Mac OS on the iPhone so that plugging into a monitor lets the full desktop OS come out and play.

Eventually though, it'd be nice to have a single OS that's good for mobile and full desktop use.


Someone needs to design the computer cloud service that databases all computer settings and theme so that all you have to do is create a user account, and all computers OS types only have to be set up once by you. The only way I see to get it done now is with a program that is windows registry aware, and can easily swap out any of the style settings, folder settings, and such... I can even see after you've basically conquered all operating systems and devices with your user interface software, you'd do well in grouping the similar settings that span multiple operating systems, and further simplifying the user experience. The backbone of the service would be storing this information online, so in the event of a computer crash all the person has to do is get the computer booted, open a website to the cloud service, and the computer is automatically updated to the user settings of choice.

No one has really made headway on this idea that I have seen. I have started to see interfaces that basically overlay the OS with a common structure and as this idea evolves then I'm sure we'll see more and more cloud services grabbing at your settings and pulling them into the sky. I can't wait because I can't even begin to tell you the number of times I've told a windows machine to show file extensions. Josh, I'd like to have that time in my life back or have something to show for it!

And yes... if I didn't answer your question about linux taking over, the answer was yes. Basically anything good developed in linux does affect all the other players, so we just need to get cracking on a user interface that works on redhat, mac os, windows, android, and ubuntu, and then the cloud services shouldn't be too far behind that! should they?

You could even be like Bill Gates on this kind of project... just figure out what you need, and you don't have to know anything about code!

Th cloud stuff is a great idea, especially for normal computing, but there are some things that I wouldn't want really want stored in the cloud, like a program that I might be working on for someone. Storing critical stuff in the cloud is still too insecure.

I was referring to what Canonical has done by combining Android 2.3 with Ubuntu. I think they used an Atrix for their experiment. When the phone is not plugged into a dock, Android runs as normal. But when the phone is docked, Ubuntu takes over. With a bluetooth mouse and keyboard, you get to experience the full Ubuntu OS. This way you can have instant access to anything on your phone in Ubuntu mode. You can edit your files, even create an Android app and run it on your phone, no need to use the emulator in the SDK, which seems slow to me.
Mr_Howl
You guys should read Super Sad True Love Story by Gary Shteyngart. Besides being a very good book about a dystopian (near) future, everyone carries a small device called an "apparat," which basically does everything, using holographic displays.
Gitesh
Its a distant dream., but the possibility is that the desktops will be replaced with even more compact sized PCs
riteshk1
Really in touch screen you can't code properly for me desktop or laptop is good well other works we can do on ipad or on touch screen..
Nyasro
i dont think so,
phone will replace desktop.

since desktop is required for graphic designing,
3d animations, web designing, etc.

phone sized computer are for temporary works,
when we are out of home or just for time pass

i think so Smile
codegeek
I think portability is a big issue, and it is a growing one. Hence, desktops will probably be used less and less in the coming days. Laptops, tablets and smartphones will probably take over. The future is portable, cloud computing. I think the age of portability has just begun. Very Happy
GuidanceReader
I think we'll all be running most of our lives through what we now perceive as portable computers, but no, I think there will always be a place for the PC.
Aredon
Well what about the whole ubuntu for Android thing? If there was full-sized keyboard and monitor for your phone that stayed at locations. Like parking sort of?

http://www.ubuntu.com/phone/ubuntu-for-android
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