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World's Seven Billionth Baby - How Do They Know?





deanhills
I'm trying to figure this one out. How can people REALLY know it is the world's seven billionth baby? What about remote areas that are not linked into information channels? This just does not make sense to me at all. I.e. that they go to X person and identify/introduce the new baby as the world's seven billionth baby.
Confused
Hello_World
Yeah, it is impossible to know. I agree.
Nameless
Short answer: They don't know.
Shorter answer: Guesswork.
Shortest answer: Meh.

BRB, going to poison some water supplies with infertility drugs.
Bikerman
No, 'they' can't tell exactly when and where the person was born. It is possible, however, to be pretty accurate with the timescale.
In any large sample, the large number makes the same pretty predictable. The bigger the group the more reliable general predictions, because 'outliers' are rendered meaningless by the very size.

In the same way, you can't tell when an individual atom of Uranium will decay, but you can tell very accurately how much decay will happen in a big lump.
loremar
I am actually more troubled how the seven billionth baby is a Filipino.
Ghost Rider103
That's an interesting question. I would like to see how they are getting and calculating the stats.

What kind of time frame are they going by? 7billionth baby since when?

Sorry, I could be out of the loop on all the information that's probably floating around on the net. Embarassed
sudipbanerjee
I think its just a media hype. to find out the actual baby is just impossible.
sonam
This is not at possible because there is lot of situation where they cannot get information. For example Amazonian Indians.

Quote:
I think its just a media hype


I am absolutely agree with this.

Sonam
Tuvitor
Well you know it's what they say--99 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot. Likewise, there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Neither of these are original thoughts, though I've heard that Mark Twain said that last part.

In other words, I'm pretty sure they're just guessing.
Ankhanu
Far as I know, no individual has been deemed the 7billionth, rather, a time was given for the statistically likely time of the birth of the symbolic 7 billionth baby.
How do they do it? It just simple (complex) stats based on current population, aggregated birth and death rates, and time. The basic idea is simple, but the actual calculations are quite complex based on differing population sizes with differing birth/death rates, and varying levels of accuracy for any of these measures in different parts of the world. Easy idea, complex math (more to the point, easy math, complex data set).

Ghost Rider, I'm pretty sure the metric used is the current population of living humans.
standready
That is an interesting question. An approximation of how many kids get pushed out per day I guess.
coolclay
Yep, just about every country is declaring a "symbolic seventh billionth baby". http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-10-31/news/30342241_1_billionth-baby-number-of-missing-girls-girl-child Some Are even using as a political/protest move. As a side note Uttar Pradesh a state in India has an .89:1 girl:boy ratio, that's a lot of horny single guys to worry about in the future, and I thought China was the only country with this sort of problem!
deanhills
standready wrote:
That is an interesting question. An approximation of how many kids get pushed out per day I guess.
Right, I've just thought of another statistical possibility too. Apart from the babies that are born deep in the Andes jungle that no one knows about, what about the statistical probability of two or three babies being born at the exact same time in different parts of the world?
Very Happy
ocalhoun
deanhills wrote:
what about the statistical probability of two or three babies being born at the exact same time in different parts of the world?
Very Happy

Depends just how exact you want to be... Several born in the same minute? Likely enough... Several in the same second? Could be... Several in the same millisecond? Not likely. Several in the same microsecond? Borderline impossible.

...Then again, to measure it that exactly, you'd have to define very precisely the line between 'born' and 'not born yet'.
Josso
ITT: Pedantic semantics


Also...

Nameless wrote:
Short answer: They don't know.
Shorter answer: Guesswork.
Shortest answer: Meh.

BRB, going to poison some water supplies with infertility drugs.


</thread>
mahirh
just imagine how bad it will be for earth - oven 7 billion parasites!
Aredon
Shouldn't the larger issue be how we're going to sustain society with this ever-increasing population rate? Perhaps less about which child is what number to be born, and more about trying to make the world they're coming into sustainable. Just my two cents.
Nighthawk360
deanhills wrote:
I'm trying to figure this one out. How can people REALLY know it is the world's seven billionth baby? What about remote areas that are not linked into information channels? This just does not make sense to me at all. I.e. that they go to X person and identify/introduce the new baby as the world's seven billionth baby.
Confused


I have nooo idea. Anyhoot the world is just TOO full these days. I mean we have enough resources they are just not allocated in he right areas..bad isnt it?
menino
I concur with deanhills that it can't be the 7th billion baby.
Maybe they have taken it as an estimate and from current records at hand, i.e. each country has to have a census record of all newborns and deaths (from registered births), and probably based on this they made an estimate of the 7th billion baby.

You can probably contest it, but where are you going to get that information from?
Still, most of us are intelligent to know its bull, and ignore it.

A few will celebrate it and a few nutcases, will take notice and probably worship that baby.

Anyways Aredon, I think the world can sustain itself with the growing population. We have a lot of land that is still available around and we have transportation logistics that carry "take-out" food from one country to another.
We also have lot of water, plants (that we grow ourselves) and people's minds to think of new innovations to better ourselves for the future.
And the governements of each country is doing something about it (.... hence trade).
spinout
Thinking of outliners the what Bikerman wrote - they are also predictable mathematically...
Anyhow i was thinking about how to really have the number under control - let's think we can have more better satellites... Thinking of the movie enemy of the state... Maybe then we would get closer to the truth.
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