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Is WAR between the U.S. and China likely?





deanhills
A Stanford University Geophysics Professor is of the opinion that there is a great likelihood of war between China and the US because of oil. Oil is key to progress, and as China is making progress on a huge scale with regard to commerce and industry, its need for oil is growing to the extent that it is currently competing for oil with the US. The US has been importing oil since 1971 and is currently importing two thirds of its oil from outside sources. Prof. Nur is of the opinion that this may be the main reason for the US involvement in Middle East wars, including lately Libya. He asks if Libya did not have any oil, would anyone have cared about Libya? And then concludes that tension in the Middle East will get worse with tension between super powers as well when they are competing for oil from this area.



Quote:
Complete cycle of world crude oil production


Quote:
The September 11 attacks in America, resulted directly, says Nur, from bin Laden's distaste for U.S. support of the Saudi royal family which controls the oil resources for personal enrichment. The crisis in Egypt, says Nur, was also a result of the energy crisis in the shadows.

Astronomical population increases, combined with significant decreases in the supply of fossil fuels, brought Egypt to a position of having to import oil - as a result, food prices doubled , and the cost of fuel rose by tens of percent, which prompted the anger of the masses on Mubarak.

Libya is today at the forefront of global energy politics. As an exporter of oil to the West, there is a stated agenda in national security to "guarantee the free flow of oil".

Source: Grand Technion Energy Programme Blog

There is also good reading in a paper by Prof. Nur from his University Website:
OIL FUTURE AND WAR NOW: A GRIM EARTH-SCIENCES
POINT OF VIEW
ocalhoun
All-out war between the US and China? Each country has too much economically invested in the other to try a war... they both know it would be ruinous even to the winner (and cause global economic problems that would make the recent recession look prosperous).

Territorial squabbles and proxy wars though... that might happen.
(ie, an oil-producing country has two factions fighting over it; the US backs one, and China backs the other... Hm... where have we seen an oil-producing country being fought over by two factions recently? Uh oh.)


deanhills wrote:



This graph extrapolates inaccurately, I think.
As demand rises above supply, price will increase -- and price increases will (somewhat) reduce demand.
There are alternatives to nearly every use of oil, and while most of these are not ideal for various reasons, as the price of oil grows higher, more people will decide that these alternatives are more feasible than paying the high price.


Will demand grow beyond supply? Yes.
Will it get as bad as the chart shows? Probably not.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
Will demand grow beyond supply? Yes.
Will it get as bad as the chart shows? Probably not.
Guess the guy was making a case for the need for finding an alternative to oil. I thought the graph would be a good one since it's from a Geophysicist Professor at a ranking University - Standford, but looks as though even Professors can get it wrong.
mengshi200
I think it is not probably burst into war between U.S. and China for oil.Two country is big and rely each other in many ways.In china,people hate war and many young people like USA.So now probably not.
deanhills
mengshi200 wrote:
I think it is not probably burst into war between U.S. and China for oil.Two country is big and rely each other in many ways.In china,people hate war and many young people like USA.So now probably not.
OK, but they are competing with one another however, aren't they? And what happens if there is not much oil left over, and both countries are powerhouses for oil consumption? You think they will cooperate and share the oil between the two of them?
coolclay
I don't think anytime soon, but it will come. While we do have a lot invested in one another, when you have nothing to loose, and countries get desperate to survive, it's kill or be killed. Our countries have always been at odds with one another, and it's only through reciprocal need that we have existed "peacefully" this long. Especially if allies of each of our countries begin fighting, and we get involved with helping them or funding them. Tempers will flare and the public will become outraged and demand war and we'll have the next World War on our hands but this time too a scale never seen before. Who knows by that point either of our countries may declare bankruptcy and fold anyway! No society or government will survive forever, it's only a question of what and when will it be destroyed. The USA is still a relatively "new" country in the grand scheme of things so we can only wait and see!
standready
deanhills wrote:
He asks if Libya did not have any oil, would anyone have cared about Libya?

Nope!
As far as China goes, China has the money so they will win the economic war. No bloody war required unless the US wants China for the oil under it.
ocalhoun
coolclay wrote:
The USA is still a relatively "new" country in the grand scheme of things so we can only wait and see!

Modern (communist) China, as a country, is also very new... makes the USA look old, even.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
coolclay wrote:
The USA is still a relatively "new" country in the grand scheme of things so we can only wait and see!

Modern (communist) China, as a country, is also very new... makes the USA look old, even.
Maybe I got in through the backdoor, Ghangzou. As it looked pretty dirty to me as well as very old infrastructure. The roads were very narrow and full of potholes, I saw very outdated muddy and dusty industrial trucks belching smoke, air not too great. The minivan we were in, was almost hanging to the one side, as not really designed for the load it was carrying. But maybe I just landed in the wrong city. Needless to say, I got our of there almost on the double. Very Happy
coolclay
Great point Ocalhoun, whenever I think of China I think of China the country not the PROC, but you're totally right.

Sounds about right Deanhills!
mengshi200
But I think if only for oil it should not appear big scale of war between two country.
Oil and energy problem is a problem of mankind common faced.
deanhills wrote:
mengshi200 wrote:
I think it is not probably burst into war between U.S. and China for oil.Two country is big and rely each other in many ways.In china,people hate war and many young people like USA.So now probably not.
OK, but they are competing with one another however, aren't they? And what happens if there is not much oil left over, and both countries are powerhouses for oil consumption? You think they will cooperate and share the oil between the two of them?
emanuel2
standready wrote:
deanhills wrote:
He asks if Libya did not have any oil, would anyone have cared about Libya?

Nope!
As far as China goes, China has the money so they will win the economic war. No bloody war required unless the US wants China for the oil under it.

yes thats is definitive one problem the US has to face...
adri
It's hard to say, even impossible, who would win a war between USA and China. We can conclude, like coolclay said, that a war is definitely possible if the world runs out of oil and there isn't really anything to replace it (I doubt that though). We currently have techniques to get energy from the sun, the wind, the water, materials (coal, Uranium), etc. I do think that Nuclear fusion is the way to go, the ITER project and also the JET project are projects that could make oil superfluous... Yet I wonder what would happen with the Middle East and all countries which main source of national income is from selling their oil?


adri
deanhills
Adri. I'm sure that "conquests" for democracy in the Ivory Coast of yesterday, in Libya, in Bahrain, etc. all have to do with a neo-colonialism for oil. As long as the US can meet its demands from the Middle East in this way, and stay away from the Far East, maybe this will be OK, but as soon as its current supply lines run out, I'm almost sure the two are going to compete with one another, and like with the Ivory Coast, we won't here the subject oil being mentioned. More like the US interfering where it should not, and China feeling it can interfere wherever it wants in the Far East. One thing I think we should also not forget is that there has to be some competition between Russia and China. Viz a viz the United States, there would be some solidarity between Russia and China, but on a one on one basis, they've always competed with one another.
adri
deanhills wrote:
Adri. I'm sure that "conquests" for democracy in the Ivory Coast of yesterday, in Libya, in Bahrain, etc. all have to do with a neo-colonialism for oil.


Yeah, it would be stupid to deny that. Smile

deanhills wrote:
One thing I think we should also not forget is that there has to be some competition between Russia and China. Viz a viz the United States, there would be some solidarity between Russia and China, but on a one on one basis, they've always competed with one another.


Well, they are both communists and I think mutual interests in oil will make them work together (a.k.a. 'if we win the war from the USA, we have enough oil for at least x(x) years'). But what we cannot forget is that Russia has some of the worlds largest oil reserves on the planet (and with the North pole melting, they could get even more) so the first thing that Russia will do is to only supply oil to themselves and cut down the oil for other countries (like every country would do).


adri
deanhills
adri wrote:
Well, they are both communists and I think mutual interests in oil will make them work together (a.k.a. 'if we win the war from the USA, we have enough oil for at least x(x) years'). But what we cannot forget is that Russia has some of the worlds largest oil reserves on the planet (and with the North pole melting, they could get even more) so the first thing that Russia will do is to only supply oil to themselves and cut down the oil for other countries (like every country would do).
adri
Excellent point. Russia is already doing that with gas supplies to the Baltic states. Renewal of gas contracts has become major political debates. They have a golden opportunity now with Japan as well. I'm not certain of the facts, but I believe they are supplying energy to Japan to supply the shortfall after the tsunami and earthquake disaster and nuclear power station crisis.
gandalfthegrey
I doubt war will occur. China will slowly take over the American economy, until the American economy collapses. Civil war may break out in the U.S., but I doubt China will get involved.
deanhills
gandalfthegrey wrote:
I doubt war will occur. China will slowly take over the American economy, until the American economy collapses. Civil war may break out in the U.S., but I doubt China will get involved.
The point was more about limited oil supplies, and competing for those. Right now the US seems to be focussing on the Middle East for its supplies, but sooner or later when that source runs out, I'm sure the two will be competing for oil. I doubt they will be attacking one another on a one on one, it may be more like oil in a third country, and the two competing and then perhaps getting in loggerheads about the oil of that country.
coolclay
Quote:
China will slowly take over the American economy, until the American economy collapses. Civil war may break out in the U.S., but I doubt China will get involved.

I think this is another very likely possibility. The US is so far in debt already, and our economy while it hasn't improved will probably hit another downhill spiral at some point. Maybe we will become an independent "colony" of China when they own more of our country than we do!
deanhills
coolclay wrote:
I think this is another very likely possibility. The US is so far in debt already, and our economy while it hasn't improved will probably hit another downhill spiral at some point. Maybe we will become an independent "colony" of China when they own more of our country than we do!
Well the US also owes Japan a lot of money. Who knows, maybe it can help with fixing its nuclear crises.

In February 2011 China owned 1,154 billion dollars of US Treasury Securities and Japan 890.3 billion US dollars. Next biggest holder after that is the UK at 295.5 billion US dollars out of a total of 4,474.3 billion US dollars Treasury Securities that are owned by Foreign Holders:

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES
China 26%
Japan 20%
UK 7%

Source: US Treasury
Cheeldash
Quote:
The first day US makes 300 million prisoners. The second day also. The third day China has won the war

Found a lot of time ago, i don't remember where but it's funny and explains very clearly that population matters a lot in case of war.
deanhills
Cheeldash wrote:
Quote:
The first day US makes 300 million prisoners. The second day also. The third day China has won the war

Found a lot of time ago, i don't remember where but it's funny and explains very clearly that population matters a lot in case of war.
Well, then Israel has to be something of a miracle. They have always been at a huge disadvantage as far as statistics are concerned. Perhaps it has more to do with military technology and fire in the belly, than numbers of people.
Hello_World
Before 911 US was ramping up their anti-China talk. Luckily US found another enemy in time to save a US-China war at that time, too bad for the Middle East.

But I'm not sure that it would actually happen. China is a formidable enemy. Most of Asia would back China.

And I'm not sure what Australia would do in this case. Not that that would really change anything in terms of war, but... I do wonder, as it would be important to Australia.
menino
I doubt that there will be a war with America and China, especially with arms and ammo.
The war will always be on economic terms and as the USA owes China about a trillion dollars in debt, I dont see why there would ever be a war, unless China demands it back.
But China doesnt seem to want to be enemies with USA.... it only has enemity with Taiwan, Tibet and maybe a few other countries.
But China needs USA for its exports mainly for one thing.

If USA has to go to an all arms war with anyone, it will be North Korea mainly.
It is already in a war with AL Qaeda, and lately won it, by killing Osama
Da Rossa
Well, I didn't ready anything but the first post. Nowadays it's almost impossible that two major countries get, in the first place, directly engaged. Any eventual war would have minor countries in the frontlines, and the powerful would back 'em up.
metalfreek
I don't see any war coming between US and China very soon. They are so interdependent upon each other. The only war I can see is the war that will lead to a capture of oil reserve and other natural resources.


Or there might be a war due to lack of Fresh Drinking water in very near future. May be within 60 years.
loremar
Greed meets Greed.
What else would you expect?
deanhills
loremar wrote:
Greed meets Greed.
What else would you expect?
One thing is for sure how that both has a lot to lose if they should go to war with one another. China owns most of the US debt so won't get paid if it should go to war with the US. The US on the other hand can't afford the expense of a major war with China.
Da Rossa
@ Dean: that's why I think a war, if it has to start, will start by incentives to smaller countries, US supporting one of them, and China the other. There is also Russia to consider...
deanhills
Da Rossa wrote:
@ Dean: that's why I think a war, if it has to start, will start by incentives to smaller countries, US supporting one of them, and China the other. There is also Russia to consider...
Totally agreed. That process is probably already ongoing.
loremar
Are you talking about Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia? Both China and USA don't even have the right to take what's not rightfully theirs. China got so big headed just because a huge part of the waters is referred to as the South China Sea when clearly it belongs to Southeast Asia. If there is war, its not going to be between the smaller countries. It will be those who have so much POWER TRIP that they think the world belongs to them. The smaller countries won't even bother with the war when two hungry very greedy big lions are grappling one another in the midst.
Oh how I wish some meteorite hits China. Nobody's even going to mourn for their loss.
ocalhoun
loremar wrote:
If there is war, its not going to be between the smaller countries.

I quite disagree on that one. Look historically at places like Korea and Vietnam.
Two superpowers getting involved in a small war between two small countries, or within a small country is a very realistic scenario.
Quote:

Oh how I wish some meteorite hits China. Nobody's even going to mourn for their loss.

Way. Out. Of. Line.

Most of the people who would suffer from that have had little or no part in the evils you blame China for.
loremar
ocalhoun wrote:
loremar wrote:
If there is war, its not going to be between the smaller countries.

I quite disagree on that one. Look historically at places like Korea and Vietnam.
Two superpowers getting involved in a small war between two small countries, or within a small country is a very realistic scenario.
Quote:

Oh how I wish some meteorite hits China. Nobody's even going to mourn for their loss.

Way. Out. Of. Line.

Most of the people who would suffer from that have had little or no part in the evils you blame China for.

1 BILLION Chinese. they don't even care what their government is doing?
If good does not prevent evil, there is no good in there.
I assume they're happy with what their government is doing?
I'm not even going to speak anymore about Chinese and anything that goes out from that country.
Otherwise, I'll get kicked out for bringing up racism.
Da Rossa
Quote:
Totally agreed. That process is probably already ongoing.


But how exactly? Which countries are involved? What's the pretext, what's on demand? And what would be the second, deeper, and actual interest(s)?

@ loremar: I think the Chinese Gvt has done a great job keeping people out of what's really going on. The only vector being considered by the Chinese people is the economical, while the political, historical and cultural have been overridden. You can't talk human rights in there.

Bringing up racism? What are you talking about? This is not a race discussion. We can't say talking about a civilization negatively is racist! Where is the pursue for truth? It's like being racist to criticize Obama and being "elitist" to say he's not an American natural born citizen. ok, this is another discussion, but stick to the "matter of discussion". If we can't even begin talking others, then this forum has no meaning to be!
Josso
Maybe there already is... and we don't know it.

DUN DUN DUNNNNNNNN
deanhills
Josso wrote:
Maybe there already is... and we don't know it.

DUN DUN DUNNNNNNNN
Well said Josso. I am certain China is fighting its War on the basis of international trade. And it is obviously winning as it holds most of the US debt.
SeriousBug
Between China and USA, a Cold War is more likely. Such big counties won't be fighting on battlefields, and if they do, I fear USA might use another nuke. Then we are all screwed.
achowles
Why would China risk damaging its property by attacking it like that?

ocalhoun wrote:

Modern (communist) China, as a country, is also very new... makes the USA look old, even.


While there never has or ever will be a communist country, you're still right in a way. China has undergone massive changes in the past few decades and, like Japan before it, already bears little resemblance to the ancient country it's built upon.

But this is the result of the rampant and unrestrained capitalism in the country, rather than the government's pathetic attempt to uphold this guise of communist ideals (if they had any there wouldn't even be a government, never mind a totalitarian one).
ocalhoun
achowles wrote:

ocalhoun wrote:

Modern (communist) China, as a country, is also very new... makes the USA look old, even.


While there never has or ever will be a communist country, you're still right in a way. China has undergone massive changes in the past few decades and, like Japan before it, already bears little resemblance to the ancient country it's built upon.


Well, I was referring to the communist revolution there. I certainly don't consider post-revolution China to be the same country as pre-revolution China.
It occupies the same geographic space, but can't be considered to have continuity with its ancient roots.
achowles
ocalhoun wrote:
Well, I was referring to the communist revolution there. I certainly don't consider post-revolution China to be the same country as pre-revolution China.
It occupies the same geographic space, but can't be considered to have continuity with its ancient roots.


That's why I wasn't arguing with that bit. Although it's fair to point out that China has seen dramatic changes in its past also. This industrial revolution isn't the first thing to dramatically change the face of the country.

That said, the whole communism thing is a lie and has been from the start. How lying about communist ideals lends itself to the creation of a totalitarian dictatorship I don't know. I can't claim to understand the mentality there at all. But with the lack of industrial reforms China's refusal to acknowledge its own beating capitalist heart is going to cost it dearly sooner or later.
inuyasha
You can't often see this kind of topics in a Chinese website. It's nearly forbidden. Economic wars are always there.
ocalhoun
inuyasha wrote:
You can't often see this kind of topics in a Chinese website. It's nearly forbidden. Economic wars are always there.

Politically motivated censorship is something I'm sure everybody here can agree is very wrong.

Don't mistake my intention as defending the Chinese government -- which I believe does rank right up there with the worst governments in the world -- just spare the Chinese people.
Da Rossa
Quote:
Politically motivated censorship is something I'm sure everybody here can agree is very wrong.


Not if you're educated from the beginning to believe this is the best measure Sad
ecomente
SeriousBug wrote:
Between China and USA, a Cold War is more likely. Such big counties won't be fighting on battlefields, and if they do, I fear USA might use another nuke. Then we are all screwed.


The cold war is always on, but I think there are both side power and economic interests, especially chinese, because of investing in the US. So the capital will not be harmed, the people will be the only victims, but I do not think that a nuke is possible, because in these days they use more silent killing techniques (poisoning food, water...)
mukesh
I think war will not be occur.
deanhills
mukesh wrote:
I think war will not be occur.
Why do you think that?
Smile
sketteksalfa
Should this war really happen I dont think if China will ever win against the US. Although china's military hardware is improving, it is still largely behind US arsenal and technology. China has only one aircraft carrier and still learning how to maneuver it in the large ocean.
hpizzle
Interesting posts. Yet, I think there needs to be a valid understanding of the macroeconomic policies used between US and China to understand the sheer absurdity of the question posed--which I do appreciate it being asked.

US government spending is out of control. Monetization and printing of the US dollar by the Fed is creating a liquidity trap, which is why there has been very little to no multiplier effect by the American government's Keynesian economics--which hopes to control the national economy by government spending.

With billions of US dollar being printed daily to monetize the US Fed bank system and Chinese central bank buying tons of US dollars, the American political clowns who are continuously voted into office, state and federal, have been playing games and wasting government expenditures that have not and may never provide the Keynesian multiplier effect they are seeking. But nobody wants to blame themselves first, before pointing at everybody else. That is the primary problem in the current American government environment--blame gaming, not actual public service. Americans can change their own politicians that offer no return-on-votes, instead of wasting our time and breath on whether to go to war with a country that is funding the US government spending.
deanhills
hpizzle wrote:
Interesting posts. Yet, I think there needs to be a valid understanding of the macroeconomic policies used between US and China to understand the sheer absurdity of the question posed--which I do appreciate it being asked.

US government spending is out of control. Monetization and printing of the US dollar by the Fed is creating a liquidity trap, which is why there has been very little to no multiplier effect by the American government's Keynesian economics--which hopes to control the national economy by government spending.

With billions of US dollar being printed daily to monetize the US Fed bank system and Chinese central bank buying tons of US dollars, the American political clowns who are continuously voted into office, state and federal, have been playing games and wasting government expenditures that have not and may never provide the Keynesian multiplier effect they are seeking. But nobody wants to blame themselves first, before pointing at everybody else. That is the primary problem in the current American government environment--blame gaming, not actual public service. Americans can change their own politicians that offer no return-on-votes, instead of wasting our time and breath on whether to go to war with a country that is funding the US government spending.
So you are then saying that the war between the two are mostly economic. In which case they are already at war? I'd say control of oil resources would also feature very heavily in this.
jajarvin
It is only a matter of time before China and the U.S. are at war with each other.

China will be in 20 years the world's most powerful state. China will have a superior weapon, and that the superior man.

I only hope this war does not start in my lifetime.
zaxacongrejo
bla bla bla china china and china what?
they are nothing compared to us you have to consider that the USA are never alone
you may want to join this

Albania
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Turkey
UK
USA

yes right loll were are the Chinese now?
deanhills
Don't know why there would be a war needed. Technically China owns quite a bit of the US and the world. China has been buying up and populating plenty of places all around the globe over the last few years. Could probably call it Chinolonialism. The first day you see a group of China business men scouting around a new place, then in months to come an almost invasion bidding lowest prices and uncercutting existing businesses, bringing out workers and their families, etc etc. Also buying up countries' debt, like they have with the US.
capricornis
Absolutely not. Why would China attack its biggest market and debtor?? Chinese are not stupid.
numed2012db
I don't think China and US will ever come to war at least not in the next 10-50 years. One being US heavily in debt and is unable to recover or even pay off the debt and the other being like what capricornis said, why would china even think of burning off it's own money? They have bought so much US debt bonds man!
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