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Coldest UK Winter Since 1683





jwellsy
Image how cold it would be without all this man made global warming.

Quote:
WINTER MAY BE COLDEST IN 1000 YEARS
Britain's winter is the coldest since 1683 and close to being the chilliest in nearly 1,000 years

30th December 2010
By Steve Hughes

BRITAIN’S winter is the coldest since 1683 and close to being the chilliest in nearly 1,000 years.

Latest figures reveal that the average temperature since December 1 has been a perishing -1C.

That makes it the second coldest since records began in 1659.

The chilliest on record was 1683/84, when the average was -1.17C and the River Thames froze over for two months.

But with January and February to come, experts believe we could suffer the most freezing cold winter in the last 1,000 years.

The Met Office’s Charlie Powell said: “It’s rare to have cold this prolonged, with temperatures falling incredibly low.

“Temperatures will be down again by Sunday, with nights below freezing and daytimes below average at 3C to 5C. Our outlook forecast to January 26 shows temperatures 2C or 3C below average, frost and ice likely and the highest chance of snow or sleet over the northern half of the UK.”

Although official weather records only go back to 1659, weather experts said the centuries from 1100 to 1500, dubbed the “Medieval warm period”, would not have produced winters as cold as today.

So 2011 could end up being the coldest winter of the last millennium.

Brian Gaze, of The Weather Outlook, said: “It’s very unusual to have a sub-zero month.”

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/169577/Winter-may-be-coldest-in-1000-years/
ocalhoun
Sorry to rain on your parade... but anecdotal evidence does not a trend make.

It's been unusually warm in South Dakota, actually. High temps in the high 40's (F) in the middle of December! Only went negative a few days so far this year!

(That said, I wouldn't mind South Dakota being a bit warmer. ^.^ Go ahead and heat it up folks, I've got no problem with it.)
Bikerman
I have to say this - anyone who mistakes local weather for global climate should probably avoid commenting on global warming at all, since the chances of anything sensible emerging are remote.

For your information, this is currently the hottest year since accurate records began in 1870 - and that is despite a very large la-nina event AND being at solar minimum.

It IS likely to be the coldest DECEMBER since 1910 in Scotland. How that became 'winter' and '1000 years' I won't even bother to speculate, given the source.

PS - quoting the Daily Star is also unlikely to build or enhance any reputation for veracity and verisimilitude.
standready
ocalhoun: Just a few states to the east of you in Indiana, December has been 10 to 15 degrees F colder than average. Finally got above freezing (32 F) yesterday. First white Christmas here in many years!
So much just depends on the upper air currents.
ocalhoun
standready wrote:

So much just depends on the upper air currents.

Which is exactly my point.

Isolated measurements of a short time period in a small area can't really tell us anything about trends of a large area and long time period.
Voodoocat
Just a few days ago, every state in America, except Florida, had snow! Atlanta had its first white Christmas in a century and has been snowed in for the last week. There are still roads and subdivisions iced over a week after the storm. Can we send some of our cold weather up north where it belongs?
naweed
the following winters will be colder and colder mainly because of global warming. The effect of global warming are not only an increase in temperature but it also can make the temperature fall
ocalhoun
naweed wrote:
the following winters will be colder and colder mainly because of global warming. The effect of global warming are not only an increase in temperature but it also can make the temperature fall

Confused
Am I the only one who thinks this makes no sense, or is it just my skepticism about it?
Bikerman
It does make sense.
Local temperatures depend on many mechanisms. For example the UK temp is largely dependant on the Gulf Stream. It is entirely credible that changes in climate will divert the gulf-stream which would result in the UK temperatures being more in line with other places on the same latitude - ie much colder.
watersoul
Bikerman wrote:
It is entirely credible that changes in climate will divert the gulf-stream which would result in the UK temperatures being more in line with other places on the same latitude - ie much colder.


...as cold as Canada, that's not something I would look forward to - Brr!
Afaceinthematrix
ocalhoun wrote:
Sorry to rain on your parade... but anecdotal evidence does not a trend make.

It's been unusually warm in South Dakota, actually. High temps in the high 40's (F) in the middle of December! Only went negative a few days so far this year!

(That said, I wouldn't mind South Dakota being a bit warmer. ^.^ Go ahead and heat it up folks, I've got no problem with it.)


It's also record high temperatures in the western U.S... We've been having summer weather in January. We basically skipped winter... And last summer Los Angeles hit record high temperatures (Goddamn that day sucked... it was like 112 degrees farenheit!). California has been unusually hot and, like I said, we didn't get a winter.
loyal
jwellsy wrote:
Image how cold it would be without all this man made global warming.


I don't think you've understood what global warming is... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh76DVhj0-Y
kelseymh
ocalhoun wrote:
naweed wrote:
the following winters will be colder and colder mainly because of global warming. The effect of global warming are not only an increase in temperature but it also can make the temperature fall

Confused
Am I the only one who thinks this makes no sense, or is it just my skepticism about it?


(Another bump after long delay, coming from the new member Smile ).

It makes no sense only because the popular media (and the deniers) insist on using the almost content-free term "global warming." The preferred scientific term is "anthropogenic climate change."

The general effect, due to increasing CO[sub]2[/sub], methane, and other so-called "greenhouse gases" in the upper atmosphere, is a very small (few degrees at most) increase in the global averaged annual surface temperature. It's that small increase which triggered the overly simplistic and misleading nomenclature.

The more important effect, at least from our parochial human perspective, is that of increasing variance. The average global temperature might shift upward a little bit, but the spread of regional values is going to increase a whole lot more. Hotter summers, colder winters, more droughts, more floods, more and larger hurricanes, yada yada yada.

There is quite clear and consistent data on regional shifts in rainfall patterns, earlier springs at high latitudes, temperature variations which lead to reduced snowpack and sea ice. Lumping all of this increased variation under a stupid term like "global warming" misleads the public, and only gives the deniers ammunition to say, "Oh, look, there's a blizzard in April! How can global warming be real?"
Bikerman
I've put a complete course on climate change on my 'teaching' server and left it open for anyone t study without enrolling.

EDIT - I've been restructuring the server and the supplied link no longer works. Because of a couple of attacks using the guest user, I've decided to make people supply a valid email address, so I've had to make enroling on the site a requirement. If this puts you off then I do understand - though I guarantee that your details (basically only the email address needs to be 'true') will not be used or passed-on by or to anyone, including me. It is simply to make it less easy to target the site and give me at least a chance to talk to anyone who abuses the facility. The course is now at the link below which will first redirect you to a logon/register screen. As I say, I understand if this puts people off, it might put me off to be quite honest. I would, however, urge you to trust me on this - supply any old name and address if you like, all I want is a valid email to make sure that you are probably a human, not a bot. That email will be securely held on the site only as long as you choose to remain a member, and will in any case never be used for anything except me contacting you if there is a problem (and it will certainly not be passed on to anyone at all, let alone 'pay for address' spam merchants).
I have, I think, a reasonable reputation for honesty online, and I assure you that the only purpose of this part of my site is to make quality learning available as widely as I can. There is no commercial element or interest to me of any sort at all.

The course itself is one from the Open University which (I hope) tells you that it is not partial or unscientific nonsense. If you don't know of the OU then just take my word for it - they have fine academic credentials and reputation. The course is 'vanilla' - by which I mean it is completely un-altered from the one delivered by the OU server.

Personally I would make it compulsory study for anyone who wishes to be taken seriously on the subject, but I don't make the rules Smile Anyway - click the link below if you want to inform yourself about the issue.
http://bikerman.co.uk/moodle/course/view.php?id=114
gverutes
global warming -- the seasons are more extreme.
kelseymh
gverutes wrote:
global warming -- the seasons are more extreme.


Exactly. See my post from 22 April; yours is more succinct, but less explanatory Smile
loonix
Bikerman wrote:
I've put a complete course on climate change on my 'teaching' server and left it open for anyone t study without enrolling.

EDIT - I've been restructuring the server and the supplied link no longer works. Because of a couple of attacks using the guest user, I've decided to make people supply a valid email address, so I've had to make enroling on the site a requirement. If this puts you off then I do understand - though I guarantee that your details (basically only the email address needs to be 'true') will not be used or passed-on by or to anyone, including me. It is simply to make it less easy to target the site and give me at least a chance to talk to anyone who abuses the facility. The course is now at the link below which will first redirect you to a logon/register screen. As I say, I understand if this puts people off, it might put me off to be quite honest. I would, however, urge you to trust me on this - supply any old name and address if you like, all I want is a valid email to make sure that you are probably a human, not a bot. That email will be securely held on the site only as long as you choose to remain a member, and will in any case never be used for anything except me contacting you if there is a problem (and it will certainly not be passed on to anyone at all, let alone 'pay for address' spam merchants).
I have, I think, a reasonable reputation for honesty online, and I assure you that the only purpose of this part of my site is to make quality learning available as widely as I can. There is no commercial element or interest to me of any sort at all.

The course itself is one from the Open University which (I hope) tells you that it is not partial or unscientific nonsense. If you don't know of the OU then just take my word for it - they have fine academic credentials and reputation. The course is 'vanilla' - by which I mean it is completely un-altered from the one delivered by the OU server.

Personally I would make it compulsory study for anyone who wishes to be taken seriously on the subject, but I don't make the rules Smile Anyway - click the link below if you want to inform yourself about the issue.
http://bikerman.co.uk/moodle/course/view.php?id=114


Any chance we can view such a holy grail of information without having to 'enroll'?

Regards
Bikerman
Not on my site - for the basic reason of self-defence (a couple of spam-bots have used the guest login to attack other sites from mine - something I obviously cannot allow to happen).

The course is available from the Open University at the link provided below. I don't think this requires enrollment (in not 100% sure, because I'm a member anyway, so I see what members see rather than what guest users see).
Try HERE

The course seems to me to be balanced (which is, of couse, not the same thing as saying it takes a 50-50 position with regard to the subject) and the information cited is all from primary sources. I think the positions taken are sound, from a scientific POV, and although I would not claim to be an expert, I do moderate a forum on this and try to keep up with what the science actually says, so I am reasonably well informed.
loonix
Works a treat as does the resource as a whole.

Thanks.
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