FRIHOST FORUMS SEARCH FAQ TOS BLOGS COMPETITIONS
You are invited to Log in or Register a free Frihost Account!


Is a war between North and South Korea likely?





deanhills
Following bombing of a South Korea island by North Korea on Tuesday, do you think that there is a likelihood of war between North and South Korea? North Korea maintains that it has been warning South Korea to stop their military exercises close to their border, and when South Korea continued with military exercises anyway, North Korea attacked the South Korean small island of Yeonpyeong, which houses South Korean military installations and a small civilian population. Two South Korean marines died and 15 soldiers were injured. There were three civilians injured but no fatalities among them.

Source: Yahoo!News
PGe-tips
I don't think so ... the north needs from time to time an event to boost up their nationalistic feelings. It's also a test for the west (and China) to feel how far they can go with their constant level of threatening. I'm sure that they know that if they escalate it to larger scale, the international community will interfere at some point.
ocalhoun
deanhills wrote:
Following bombing of a South Korea island by North Korea on Tuesday,


Shelling, not bombing, from what I hear... They used artillery. - A North Korean specialty.

And in two technical ways, I suppose they are already at war-
A- The Korean war never officially ended.
B- Both sides are shooting at each other.

Is it likely to escalate though?
I see two main possibilities:
1- China supports N. Korea: S. Korea attacks the northern artillery positions that fired on them by air in retaliation, then N Korea says "This is an outrage! The consequences will never be the same! (Send us aid)."
2- China does not support N. Korea: S Korea settles for convincing the Chinese to impose harsh trade/aid penalties on N. Korea.
Bikerman
3 - China publicly supports N. Korea and plays the 'lets all calm down' game, whilst trying to pressure N.Korea to cool it.

The chances of China supplying military aid to N.Korea are somewhere between none and 'not a bleedin' chance'.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
deanhills wrote:
Following bombing of a South Korea island by North Korea on Tuesday,
Shelling, not bombing, from what I hear... They used artillery. - A North Korean specialty.
Thanks for correcting that, it was a slip of the "tongue". Smile

ocalhoun wrote:
And in two technical ways, I suppose they are already at war-
A- The Korean war never officially ended.
B- Both sides are shooting at each other.
Agreed, it has never stopped.

ocalhoun wrote:
Is it likely to escalate though?
I see two main possibilities:
1- China supports N. Korea: S. Korea attacks the northern artillery positions that fired on them by air in retaliation, then N Korea says "This is an outrage! The consequences will never be the same! (Send us aid)."
2- China does not support N. Korea: S Korea settles for convincing the Chinese to impose harsh trade/aid penalties on N. Korea.
I have to agree with Bikerman. I doubt the Chinese will get actively involved. At most they may help with supplying arms.

Do you think that the United States will intervene, or let the two fight it out between the two of them? Or, supply the South with arms, strategy and technology?
ocalhoun
Bikerman wrote:
3 - China publicly supports N. Korea and plays the 'lets all calm down' game, whilst trying to pressure N.Korea to cool it.

The chances of China supplying military aid to N.Korea are somewhere between none and 'not a bleedin' chance'.

I didn't mean military aid, I just meant diplomatic support.
Bikerman
I think China is actually in a bit of a bind. The Chinese have no interest in, or use for, military conflict at the moment. Their economy is still growing fast and they have the economic muscle to sort out practically any country now - why risk combat? I'm also not sure exactly how much influence China actually has on Kim Il Sung. (and more importantly his son).
ocalhoun
Bikerman wrote:
I'm also not sure exactly how much influence China actually has on Kim Il Sung. (and more importantly his son).

As much influence as anybody can have, I'd presume.
Economic mainly, since China has a near-monopoly on trading with N. Korea... and might be convinced to enforce tough sanctions if N. Korea gets too crazy.
menino
I doubt that a full blown war will escalate between N and S Korea, mainly because neither can sustain it, and will involve international efforts to stop it.

I think that the shelling of S.korea by N.Korea was to show that it meant business, and to heed its warning, and not ignore them.

Right now, China is trying to bring in N.Korea, S.Korea, US, Russia and Japan, in a six party talk to try and diffuse the tentions, and also stop North Korea's Nuclear uranium enrichment programs, in return for aid.
deanhills
menino wrote:
I think that the shelling of S.korea by N.Korea was to show that it meant business, and to heed its warning, and not ignore them.
That makes good sense, but on the other hand after that incidence where North Korea allegedly attacked a navy boat of South Korea (not proven yet I think), it looks as though the attacks are escalating. Wonder what kinds of diplomatic games are being played out in the background between the US, South Korea, North Korea and China? I sometimes wonder whether an attack from North Korea could also be a start of a bargaining chip with the United States or China in exchange for special favours or to show a hand of strength, rather than a primary engagement with South Korea?
mengshi200
I think the big war will not hard happen.because big country is not willing to launch a war.
menino
deanhills wrote:
menino wrote:
I think that the shelling of S.korea by N.Korea was to show that it meant business, and to heed its warning, and not ignore them.
That makes good sense, but on the other hand after that incidence where North Korea allegedly attacked a navy boat of South Korea (not proven yet I think), it looks as though the attacks are escalating. Wonder what kinds of diplomatic games are being played out in the background between the US, South Korea, North Korea and China? I sometimes wonder whether an attack from North Korea could also be a start of a bargaining chip with the United States or China in exchange for special favours or to show a hand of strength, rather than a primary engagement with South Korea?


Thats exactly what I was thinking - that it could also be a political motivator for aid from anyone else.
But there is no proof of this, and the most likely cause for the attack is more of the ego thing, where South Korea is not listening to their warnings.
The Navy boat attack of S. Korea may be kept quiet by the South Koreans probably because they don't want any attention to it, being that they might have been trying to hide something they don't want anyone else to see.
But these are speculations, and no one really knows the truth except for the bipolar koreans.
The only thing we can surmise is that there is something going on, and it doesn't seem to look good for anyone, including the rest of the world, especially if North Korea is enriching uranium.


mengshi200 wrote:
Quote:
I think the big war will not hard happen.because big country is not willing to launch a war.

Iraq in 1992 could not sustain a war, and yet started it off, even though they had warnings from the UN and the US, apart from the rest of the world, and see what happened to them.
No one wants a war, but if it comes down to it, and the cards are dealt wrong, no one knows what will happen.
deanhills
menino wrote:
The Navy boat attack of S. Korea may be kept quiet by the South Koreans probably because they don't want any attention to it, being that they might have been trying to hide something they don't want anyone else to see.
Now this is an interesting insight that does make a lot of sense. I was wondering why all of it was so hush hush and why South Korea was trying to keep it quiet.
menino wrote:
The only thing we can surmise is that there is something going on, and it doesn't seem to look good for anyone, including the rest of the world, especially if North Korea is enriching uranium.
I would be worried about North Korea who seems to be more of a loose cannon than South Korea is. At least the US has some tabs on South Korea, but none on North Korea. If provoked North Korea could, whether intended or not, easily embark on a full scale war.
deanhills
Looks as thought the US is joining South Korea in war games on Sunday, in response to the attack by North Korea earlier in the week:
Quote:
The United States and South Korea prepared for war games Sunday as South Koreans demanded vengeance over a deadly North Korean artillery bombardment that has raised fears of more clashes between the bitter rivals.

Quote:
The North said that Sunday's planned U.S.-South Korean war games showed that the United States was "the arch criminal who deliberately planned the incident and wire-pulled it behind the scene."

The war games starting Sunday and involving the USS George Washington supercarrier display resolve by Korean War allies Washington and Seoul to respond strongly to any future North Korean aggression. However, Washington has insisted the drills are routine and were planned well before last Tuesday's attack.

North Korea on Saturday warned of retaliatory attacks creating a "sea of fire" if its territory is violated.

President Lee told top officials "there is a possibility North Korea may take provocative actions during the (joint) exercise," and urged them to coordinate with U.S. forces to counter any such move, according to a spokesman in the president's office who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing official protocol.

Washington and Seoul have pressed China to use its influence on Pyongyang to ease tensions. China is impoverished North Korea's biggest benefactor and its only major ally.

On Friday, the North conducted an apparent artillery drill within sight of Yeonpyeong island. The warning to Seoul and Washington came as the top U.S. commander in South Korea toured Yeonpyeong island to survey the wreckage from the rain of artillery three days earlier.

Source: Yahoo!News
menino
Yes, I heard this on the news, regarding the exercises at Yeonpyeong, with Us and S. Korea.
But I doubt it will escalate into a full blown war.

North Korea is aware of the US presence, and won't do anything deliberate as long as US forces are present, because they know if they do, US will not take permission from any other nations, including the UN, to retaliate on a personal basis.
I think US is probably looking for an excuse to take down N.Korea's nuclear establishments, if N. Korea does start something.... but that again is just my opinion.
I just hope things don't go out of hand, because if they do, the whole world economy will be affected adversely, since trade routes will also be affected, apart from the current economic recession still present in many parts of the world.
deanhills
menino wrote:
I think US is probably looking for an excuse to take down N.Korea's nuclear establishments, if N. Korea does start something....
Interesting theory, and I agree it would make sense for the US to make a show of a powerful presence. However I am puzzled by your point of view that the US may be looking for an excuse to take down North Korea's nuclear establishments. In your opinion, how would the US be able to take down North Korea's nuclear establishments ..... Question Furthermore, the US seems to be already more than fully committed in the Middle East, and does not have any spare cash as far as I can see, also would the people of the US support another war? And would it be quite easy to take down North Korea? The US already made a mistake with Iraq, thinking it would be much easier than it finally turned out to be, to take down Iraq. And .... then they could not find the weapons of mass destruction? Smile I wonder how much bluffing there really is about the nuclear weapons especially since the North Koreans don't seem to be able to launch the "nuclear weapons" successfully?
Cliffer
I am chinese,I don't support North Korea.
standready
ocalhoun wrote:
(Send us aid)

The reason for all the hoopla! Both North and South Korea.
inuyasha
I hope not. Anyway, it's definitely no good to the people of the 2 countries. Besides, they speak the same language and should not suffer from the wars between governments.
deanhills
inuyasha wrote:
I hope not. Anyway, it's definitely no good to the people of the 2 countries. Besides, they speak the same language and should not suffer from the wars between governments.
I don't think language is something that binds countries together. English for example is the language of many countries, and similar words in English may be differently interpreted by different English speaking countries. Some of the countries have gone at war with one another as well. For example the American colonies against the British Empire when they were fighting for their freedom.
ocalhoun
deanhills wrote:
inuyasha wrote:
I hope not. Anyway, it's definitely no good to the people of the 2 countries. Besides, they speak the same language and should not suffer from the wars between governments.
I don't think language is something that binds countries together. English for example is the language of many countries, and similar words in English may be differently interpreted by different English speaking countries. Some of the countries have gone at war with one another as well. For example the American colonies against the British Empire when they were fighting for their freedom.

I don't think there's any bond strong enough to prevent humans from having a war...
Just look at any of the dozens of civil wars that have happened; in most of those, the humans involved shared every bond possible, but still decided to kill each other in large numbers.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
deanhills wrote:
inuyasha wrote:
I hope not. Anyway, it's definitely no good to the people of the 2 countries. Besides, they speak the same language and should not suffer from the wars between governments.
I don't think language is something that binds countries together. English for example is the language of many countries, and similar words in English may be differently interpreted by different English speaking countries. Some of the countries have gone at war with one another as well. For example the American colonies against the British Empire when they were fighting for their freedom.

I don't think there's any bond strong enough to prevent humans from having a war...
Just look at any of the dozens of civil wars that have happened; in most of those, the humans involved shared every bond possible, but still decided to kill each other in large numbers.
Right, Frihost can be a good example too ..... Laughing Seriously though, I agree. Not even a family bond is strong enough, especially when there is an inheritance involved, they can go to war as well.
Related topics
9/11 videos
Hi everybody!New guy from South Korea, but living in Germany
What's great about your country?
Violence targeting Muslims in the U.S
How Will the World React to a Nuclear North Korea?
Most interesting war
Tony Blair
Korea
Possibility of War between India & Pakistan
US Confirms North Korea Satellite Launch
North Korea makes some gestures toward calm
Is WAR between the U.S. and China likely?
North Korea cut emergency phone to south
Possible War with Korea
Reply to topic    Frihost Forum Index -> Lifestyle and News -> Discuss World News

FRIHOST HOME | FAQ | TOS | ABOUT US | CONTACT US | SITE MAP
© 2005-2011 Frihost, forums powered by phpBB.