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predicting:Electricity car can replace oil car in 10 years?





Cliffer
Technology develops so fast, Electricity car can replace oil car in 10 years? and Electricity power stations replaces oil stations?
ocalhoun
Electric cars can replace internal combustion ones ONLY when better batteries are developed.

The batteries must:
1- Be relatively cheap.
2- Hold much more energy than today's batteries.
3- Recharge quickly.

No battery type we have to day fits those requirements, which is why all-electric cars are not popular.

So, electric cars will replace the ones you're familiar with when this perfect battery is developed. That could be tomorrow, 10 years, or 100 years...
Ghost Rider103
When you say you think they will replace gas cars in 10 years, what kind of replacement are we talking about here? Total destruction of all gas vehicles, or just stop producing gas vehicles and replace them with electric?

I personally don't think either will happen. Not in 10 years anyways.

That is a huge step, and I just don't see it happening anytime soon. When it does happen, I think it will happen slowly. You will slowly see gas vehicles disappear, and electric ones will replace them.

Ten years is a pretty slim time period for all of that to happen.

As olcalhoun mentioned, we still don't even have the technology to replace gas vehicles.
andysart380
i was thinking about this today...and another downside i came across is that in theory it wont help pollution AT ALL. You figure if everyone has to charge their car, power plants will be pumping out at least twice as much electricity because of the high demand of power . that means all the more polution their furnaces and incinerators are going to be putting out.. i just dont know how they have over looked this for so long.
Andrew426
andysart380 wrote:
. that means all the more polution their furnaces and incinerators are going to be putting out.. i just dont know how they have over looked this for so long.
The world is moving towards cleaner, renewable power. hydro-electric power stations, and wind farms for example.
ocalhoun
andysart380 wrote:
i was thinking about this today...and another downside i came across is that in theory it wont help pollution AT ALL. You figure if everyone has to charge their car, power plants will be pumping out at least twice as much electricity because of the high demand of power . that means all the more polution their furnaces and incinerators are going to be putting out.. i just dont know how they have over looked this for so long.

The exhausts from power plants are filtered and processed much more thoroughly than exhausts from cars. Power plants also convert fossil fuels into power much more efficiently than cars do.

It wouldn't eliminate the pollution, but it would decrease it by a significant margin.
DeltaM
As ocalhoun said It's all about the batteries before we get them small, cheap and powerfull electric cars won't be an option as today a good battery costs way to much for the companies to produce a car that people actually will have the money to buy. And ofcourse the infrastructure needs to approve so the cars can recharge in alot of places.
SonLight
I don't think electricity is the best long-term solution for automobiles. Hydrogen is a little scary for most people, since it has a reputation for being dangerous. If it can be handled and used safely, hydrogen is probably the best long-term choice.

If humanity wants to make the most progress toward reducing automotive pollution in the next ten years, we should consider designing an engine that runs reasonably efficiently on three fuels: gasoline, natural gas, and hydrogen. If the research were subsidized and the results shared, I think the auto companies could produce cars which can use all three fuels within a couple of years, and they would probably be nearly competitive with gasoline-only cars in five years.

Within ten years I would expect these cars could run mostly on natural gas or hydrogen, provided we are willing to make the social investment to encourage their adoption. We certainly would not have replaced most gasoline-only autos in ten years, but we might be 75% converted within twenty years.
chatrack
Electricity is the energy source available to us at the lowest cost. Most of the country depend on
hydro-electric power a renewable source.
SonLight
chatrack wrote:
Electricity is the energy source available to us at the lowest cost. Most of the country depend on
hydro-electric power a renewable source.


Definitely true. While we need to find better ways to generate electricity, it is and probably always will be the best form to produce new energy in. That leaves us with a choice of how do we convert it for use in an automobile most efficiently?

One way is by plugging in and charging batteries, which are then used to power the car. As pointer out earlier, our best battery technologies are not yet economical, and it is not clear if they will ever be.

For the long term, I think producing hydrogen by electrolysis may be the best solution. That allows the hydrogen production facilities to be spread out, as electricity can be transported cheaply. It also helps balance the electrical load, because a substantial amount of hydrogen can be stored when the wind blows and the sun shines. Safety of storage and transport, both at production plants and in cars, is the most technically challenging problem.

There are (at least) two fundamentally different ways to use the hydrogen for fuel. For now, I recommend we use conventional engines tuned to burn it, because it gives us the flexibility of using alternate fuels and it has already been demonstrated to work efficiently. In the future, fuel cell technology may advance to the point where it is more efficient, and our cars may become totally electric.

While we are in the process of scaling up to use hydrogen, natural gas may be a good interim solution. Natural gas is readily available and is often used to produce electricity. We may have some engines tuned for gasoline and natural gas and others tuned for natural gas and hydrogen over the next 20 or 30 years. In the long run, I would hope that gasoline would become a specialty fuel, and most cars would run either on hydrogen or batteries or both.
ocalhoun
chatrack wrote:
Electricity is the energy source available to us at the lowest cost. Most of the country depend on
hydro-electric power a renewable source.

Most of which country?

I think this chart is the power sources used in Japan-


Even in a very well developed country, most of the power comes from fossil fuels...
SonLight
Here's a graph for the United States:



Hydroelectric sources here have probably been overused if anything. Clearly, if we run our cars on electricity, they will be fueled primarily by coal over the next couple of decades at least.

Down the road I would hope wind, sun, and tides would power our electric grids. All three of these sources need a lot of development before they can compete economically. None of them can produce electricity on a full-time basis, so there is a scheduling issue, and some form of storage for part of the load is a big advantage for them.
ocalhoun
Though environmentalists love to hate it, nuclear power is probably the most viable choice for taking on the brunt of the power needs while minimizing (and containing) pollution.

Yes, it does create radioactive waste, but only in relatively small amounts- small enough to be contained and stored safely away.
With modern facilities where cooling rods automatically fall down in the event of a meltdown, they are very safe from accident as well.
SonLight
ocalhoun wrote:
Though environmentalists love to hate it, nuclear power is probably the most viable choice for taking on the brunt of the power needs while minimizing (and containing) pollution.

Yes, it does create radioactive waste, but only in relatively small amounts- small enough to be contained and stored safely away.
With modern facilities where cooling rods automatically fall down in the event of a meltdown, they are very safe from accident as well.


Fission reactors are not ideal choices, although they might be a good solution to bridge the gap for a few decades. Down the road, fusion reactors have the potential for providing a permanent and much cleaner solution. There are some serious questions about them though.

Fusion reactors still need a lot of development, so it is impossible to say when (or even if) they will become competitive. Fusion is still "nuclear", so whether it will get public acceptance is unknown. There is also the possibility that fusion will have unanticipated drawbacks that are nearly as bad as our early fission reactors.
BigGeek
I honestly don't think that the big power companies are ever going to change away from coal, although as I write that I had been reading an article about the Colorado power companies and how they resisted adding wind generators and after they got them in place decided they are a pretty good resource. Colorado is powered primarily off of coal.

I think that the power revolution is going to be a consumer thing on a per house basis. The solar panels that they have now are pretty impressive in output and the technology is getting better. I read an article a year or so ago about a company that had developed a solar sheet that was very powerful in output, and that they first batches were all purchased by the army, they can use them to replace heavy battery packs for their gear. Plus home wind power generators, hell a simple GM alternator can be built self exciting and bumped up to 350 amps, couple of solar panels and a wind alternator or two and you are making money from the power companies......it is a public grid Shocked Shocked

As far as electric cars go, they will always be relegated to the use as a daily commuter with battery recharge times of 4 to 6 hours and 100 to 200 mile range per charge. They really aren't feasible for use over any real distance.....can you imagine stopping every 150 miles for 6 hours?

Just my thoughts on the subject anyhow!
ocalhoun
BigGeek wrote:
couple of solar panels and a wind alternator or two and you are making money from the power companies......it is a public grid

Yes you can sell back power... but it is a large initial investment, and remember you have to keep all that equipment maintained.
In addition to generating the power, you have to convert it to AC, and synchronize it with the electric grid if you're to sell it back, which adds more expensive equipment.

Also, you forgot one. It's possible to make your own personal hydro-electric plant, if you happen to have a suitable stream/creek in your property... A very nice option if you have a suitable spot for it; more reliable than other sources.
pll
chatrack wrote:
Electricity is the energy source available to us at the lowest cost. Most of the country depend on
hydro-electric power a renewable source.

This country could be Canada, at least in my province, we're all living from hydro-power. We have one Nuclear plant in the whole province. Cool
And we can sell some of our electricity to the eastern USA.
soljarag
there is no way it will TOTALLY replace gas cars in 10 years.... my guess is that would take atleast 30 years to TOTALLY replace gas cars
speeDemon
It seems to me that we're just one step away from the introduction of cheap battery cars.. but we need a breakthrough.. some kind of discovery or maybe a change in some old kind of methods..
Nemesis234
speeDemon wrote:
It seems to me that we're just one step away from the introduction of cheap battery cars.. but we need a breakthrough.. some kind of discovery or maybe a change in some old kind of methods..

there is no reason for a battery car to be more "cheap" than petrol powered car. currently i see battery powered cars at about the same price as petrol, in the UK atleast. but only people in london buy them, the technology is so bad that the are just not viable yet. the distance you can travel and the time it takes for a recharge makes them a stupid investment when petrol is so much easier.

it will take a big leap in battery technology to make them viable imo, currently batteries just aint up to the task.
ocalhoun
Nemesis234 wrote:
speeDemon wrote:
It seems to me that we're just one step away from the introduction of cheap battery cars.. but we need a breakthrough.. some kind of discovery or maybe a change in some old kind of methods..

there is no reason for a battery car to be more "cheap" than petrol powered car. currently i see battery powered cars at about the same price as petrol, in the UK atleast. but only people in london buy them, the technology is so bad that the are just not viable yet. the distance you can travel and the time it takes for a recharge makes them a stupid investment when petrol is so much easier.

it will take a big leap in battery technology to make them viable imo, currently batteries just aint up to the task.

There are batteries that can handle the task... but they are very expensive.
That might be what speeDemon meant about 'cheap battery cars'.
zbale
As some have pointed out, you would have to decide what you mean by "replace".

I guess you probably meant in terms of number of new vehicles sold, whether there will be a majority of electric vehicles.

Also, the question is probably "where?". It is probable that the progressive switch from gas to electric (and other alternative energies) will not take place everywhere equally, due to reasons such as the price of cars, governments incentives and bans on polluting cars, etc.

Ten years seems a bit optimistic to me even in the Western world, but I'm not a specialist.
ocalhoun
zbale wrote:

Also, the question is probably "where?". It is probable that the progressive switch from gas to electric (and other alternative energies) will not take place everywhere equally, due to reasons such as the price of cars, governments incentives and bans on polluting cars, etc.

Also due to differences in population density.
In densely populated areas, people generally drive shorter distances, which electric cars are more practical for.
In sparsely populated areas, one has to drive further to get anywhere, which stresses the limits on the range of electric cars.
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