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Iran's nuclear programme peaceful?

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deanhills
Looks as though Iran has come forward and is allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect one of its two nuclear enrichment facilities. How sincere do you think are the Iranians? Do you think that their nuclear facilities will be used for peaceful purposes only?
Quote:
"IAEA inspectors' visit to Fordo shows that Iran's nuclear activities are transparent and peaceful," the official IRNA news agency quoted lawmaker Hasan Ebrahimi as saying.

Another test of Iran's cooperation is fast approaching, however. Iran has promised to respond this week to a U.N.-brokered deal to process its nuclear fuel abroad — a plan designed to ease Western fears about Iran's potential ability to produce weapons-grade material.

The current inspection of Iran's second enrichment site came about a month after Tehran disclosed its existence in a letter to the IAEA, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. The notification to the U.N. agency came just days before President Barack Obama and other Western leaders claimed Iran has been hiding the facility from the world for years.

Quote:
After Iran's disclosure, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that "the burden of proof is on Iran" to convince the international community its nuclear program is peaceful.

Iran says that by reporting the existence of the site voluntarily, it "pre-empted a conspiracy" by the United States and its allies who were hoping to present the site as evidence that Iran was developing its nuclear program in secret.


Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091025/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_nuclear
ocalhoun
Sincere? Not at all. They're using the appearance of cooperation to buy time; to avoid actions against them until they've completed a few nukes.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
Sincere? Not at all. They're using the appearance of cooperation to buy time; to avoid actions against them until they've completed a few nukes.
Looks as though Russia will be the other country who will be responsible for processing the nuclear fuel. Can just imagine Israel and the US being very concerned about this. If Iran and Russia get to be allies, it would have lots of ramifications for the balance of power in the Middle and Far East.
ocalhoun
deanhills wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
Sincere? Not at all. They're using the appearance of cooperation to buy time; to avoid actions against them until they've completed a few nukes.
Looks as though Russia will be the other country who will be responsible for processing the nuclear fuel. Can just imagine Israel and the US being very concerned about this. If Iran and Russia get to be allies, it would have lots of ramifications for the balance of power in the Middle and Far East.

Yeah... I guess so. I was wondering what Russia would get out of it, but then I realized. Russia really needs money. Iran has lots of oil money. Iran wants nukes. Russia has them and knows how to build them (and probably doesn't feel particularly threatened by the possibility of Iranian nukes).
Yeah, I could see how that relationship might work out well.

I wonder if the US could step in first and assume the same roll... Tell them we'll help them build nukes in exchange for some free oil (and a promise not to use those nukes on us)... ^.^
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
deanhills wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
Sincere? Not at all. They're using the appearance of cooperation to buy time; to avoid actions against them until they've completed a few nukes.
Looks as though Russia will be the other country who will be responsible for processing the nuclear fuel. Can just imagine Israel and the US being very concerned about this. If Iran and Russia get to be allies, it would have lots of ramifications for the balance of power in the Middle and Far East.

Yeah... I guess so. I was wondering what Russia would get out of it, but then I realized. Russia really needs money. Iran has lots of oil money. Iran wants nukes. Russia has them and knows how to build them (and probably doesn't feel particularly threatened by the possibility of Iranian nukes).
Yeah, I could see how that relationship might work out well.

I wonder if the US could step in first and assume the same roll... Tell them we'll help them build nukes in exchange for some free oil (and a promise not to use those nukes on us)... ^.^
I would have thought Russia's motivation would have been one completely of power. Money is great of course, but power would give Russia a bargaining position with the United States in special trade deals perhaps.
Moonspider
deanhills wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
deanhills wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
Sincere? Not at all. They're using the appearance of cooperation to buy time; to avoid actions against them until they've completed a few nukes.
Looks as though Russia will be the other country who will be responsible for processing the nuclear fuel. Can just imagine Israel and the US being very concerned about this. If Iran and Russia get to be allies, it would have lots of ramifications for the balance of power in the Middle and Far East.

Yeah... I guess so. I was wondering what Russia would get out of it, but then I realized. Russia really needs money. Iran has lots of oil money. Iran wants nukes. Russia has them and knows how to build them (and probably doesn't feel particularly threatened by the possibility of Iranian nukes).
Yeah, I could see how that relationship might work out well.

I wonder if the US could step in first and assume the same roll... Tell them we'll help them build nukes in exchange for some free oil (and a promise not to use those nukes on us)... ^.^
I would have thought Russia's motivation would have been one completely of power. Money is great of course, but power would give Russia a bargaining position with the United States in special trade deals perhaps.


Russia needs money to be true, but they have a massive amount of oil and natural gas. Therefore they have their own sources of substantial income from their own natural resources.

Provided oil and gas prices remain high.

Thus, Middle East instability is in Russia's best interest because that keeps oil prices up higher than normal. Stability in the Middle East places downward pressure upon oil prices.

Russia may not directly encourage a war in the Middle East. I certainly wouldn't say that. However, working hard to make the place more stable does not help them in any way.

deanhills wrote:
Do you think that their nuclear facilities will be used for peaceful purposes only?


No. I fear it terribly naive to believe their facilities are solely for peaceful purposes. Iran stonewalls at every opportunity and kicks the can a little further down the street. The United Nations has no power to stop them from acquiring nuclear weapons if they want them. Russia and China have no reason to stop Iran from doing so.

As noble as the non-proliferation treaty may be, it doesn't actually accomplish anything because there is no way to enforce it except by the unified efforts of the security council. The chances of that happening are slim.

Respectfully,
M
deanhills
Moonspider wrote:
deanhills wrote:
Do you think that their nuclear facilities will be used for peaceful purposes only?


No. I fear it terribly naive to believe their facilities are solely for peaceful purposes. Iran stonewalls at every opportunity and kicks the can a little further down the street. The United Nations has no power to stop them from acquiring nuclear weapons if they want them. Russia and China have no reason to stop Iran from doing so.

As noble as the non-proliferation treaty may be, it doesn't actually accomplish anything because there is no way to enforce it except by the unified efforts of the security council. The chances of that happening are slim.
My take on it too. Also people in the Middle East vary rarely deal in exactitudes, they keep things as vague and as non-confrontational as they can to allow as much leeway in any number of directions as they can. For now they want to both look good, as well as keep their military options open not only for actual use, but as a deterrent for attack by neighbouring countries and perhaps Israel too.
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