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goodwill alone gets one only so far in the real world.

 


ocalhoun
Wall Street Journal
Quote:

June 12, 2009

Pg. 14



Deaf To His Charms



The Kyrygz say 'nyet' to Obama.





Not to deny President Obama's diplomatic charms, but they seem lost on the world's harder cases. The latest is Kyrgyzstan, a Central Asian nation of five million that has been home to a U.S. air base at Manas, a critical transit center to supply troops in Afghanistan.



In February, hours after securing $2 billion in aid from Russia, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced -- in Moscow no less -- that the U.S. will have to leave by August 18. Mr. Obama this week sent a confidential letter to the Kyrgyz leader implicitly asking him to reconsider by "expressing his gratitude to the nation and government of Kyrgyzstan for its efforts to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan and in the fight against international terrorism and narcotics trafficking," according to a summary released by the Kyrgyz government yesterday.



The Kyrgyz quickly shot those hopes down. "The decision to abolish the agreement on the military air base, Manas, has been made, and there is no turning back from this," Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev told a Kyrgyz news agency.



Russian fingerprints are all over this U.S. setback. Like many other authoritarians, Vladimir Putin's regime in Moscow derives its legitimacy in part from anti-Americanism. No "restart" in relations promised by Mr. Obama can easily change that. And for Russia, in its neighborhood, the policy consequence is to push America out and prop up local dictators. That's true whether the U.S. President is named Obama or Bush. Perhaps this young Administration can learn with experience that goodwill alone gets one only so far in the real world.


Something I was saying as soon as I heard that he planned to solve all our international problems by diplomacy...
Solon_Poledourus
ocalhoun wrote:
Something I was saying as soon as I heard that he planned to solve all our international problems by diplomacy...
I don't think he quite so boldly put it that way, but yeah, I know what you're saying. As much as I applaud his willingness to use diplomacy first, sometimes it's not enough to be the nice guy.

I wonder how quickly the CCCP will be back in bidness.
deanhills
Obama probably still has a lot to learn, Russians are traditionally very fickle and it is very easy to misread what they say and what they do. Possibly Obama had reason to believe that they would come his way and his mistake was assuming anything without very definite substance in the assumption. Areed that goodwill and "being nice" are definitely not enough for negotiating with Russia. Bush may have done a little better here. Russians are notoriously difficult customers one can't ever assume anything especially along goodwill lines.
Solon_Poledourus
The thing is, Russia is full of very strong willed people. Putin is a shining example of that. I have been there, and I loved it, I think it's a beautiful place and the people are awesome. But they deplore weakness, and they detest an "ass kisser". And that's how Obama is coming off. Putin didn't "like" Bush any more than he likes Obama, but he did respect Bush, because he wasn't a limpwrist. The only reason Putin is being this ballsy is because he knows he can. If Obama makes any show of strength, he will totally alienate the pansy left, and that's his base, those are the people who put him in office more than any other group. If he does nothing, his base will assume it's the rest of the world going insane, rather than blame Obama for not flexing a bit of muscle.

Now, when I say he needs to "flex a bit of muscle", do I mean "start a war"? Hell no. But dammit, give some ultimatums, lay down some law, tell these Kim Jong Il's and Vlad Putin's that this crap will not be tolerated. Sanction a country or two. Cut off their humanitarian aid. SOMETHING.

He's a great speaker, Obama. And I do hold a good bit of hope for him yet. But I can tell you, sometimes talking just doesn't cut the mustard when you are dealing with tried and true hardasses.
deanhills
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
The thing is, Russia is full of very strong willed people. Putin is a shining example of that. I have been there, and I loved it, I think it's a beautiful place and the people are awesome. But they deplore weakness, and they detest an "ass kisser". And that's how Obama is coming off. Putin didn't "like" Bush any more than he likes Obama, but he did respect Bush, because he wasn't a limpwrist. The only reason Putin is being this ballsy is because he knows he can. If Obama makes any show of strength, he will totally alienate the pansy left, and that's his base, those are the people who put him in office more than any other group. If he does nothing, his base will assume it's the rest of the world going insane, rather than blame Obama for not flexing a bit of muscle.
I like the way you put it. My take on it too. I have asked this in another thread as well, but where in heavens name is Secretary Hillary Clinton? Is Obama side-lining her? She could be much better at this than he is. If I had been a Russian I would have thought higher of her than Obama.
Solon_Poledourus
deanhills wrote:
I like the way you put it. My take on it too. I have asked this in another thread as well, but where in heavens name is Secretary Hillary Clinton? Is Obama side-lining her? She could be much better at this than he is. If I had been a Russian I would have thought higher of her than Obama.
Well she has more experience and credibility on an international scale. I have no idea why she is MIA. If they keep letting this kind of thing happen, they will soon lose any chance of reigning it in. I really hope all my friends in Eastern Europe are able to get through this mess, and I'm sorry we aren't doing more to help.
deanhills
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
deanhills wrote:
I like the way you put it. My take on it too. I have asked this in another thread as well, but where in heavens name is Secretary Hillary Clinton? Is Obama side-lining her? She could be much better at this than he is. If I had been a Russian I would have thought higher of her than Obama.
Well she has more experience and credibility on an international scale. I have no idea why she is MIA. If they keep letting this kind of thing happen, they will soon lose any chance of reigning it in. I really hope all my friends in Eastern Europe are able to get through this mess, and I'm sorry we aren't doing more to help.
What mess is it?
Solon_Poledourus
deanhills wrote:
What mess is it?
Kyrygzstan is kicking out the US military base. This is most likely influenced by Putin, who is ex-KGB, and has not exactly made a big secret of his love for the old CCCP. When the US was talking about putting missile defense systems in the Czech Republic(I think), Putin made a big angry deal about it, and now this stuff with the Kyrygz... I'm not so sure it's their "people" who want our military base gone, but rather Putin and their President. After all, military bases are always a big boon to any local economy, and for a small nation like theirs which is not exactly wealthy, kicking us out seems like a bad decision, economically speaking.

It just seems like Putin is trying to reform the old CCCP. And with Obama trying to make nicey-nice with all sides, Putin might just have a chance to do it. That's the mess.
deanhills
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
deanhills wrote:
What mess is it?
Kyrygzstan is kicking out the US military base. This is most likely influenced by Putin, who is ex-KGB, and has not exactly made a big secret of his love for the old CCCP. When the US was talking about putting missile defense systems in the Czech Republic(I think), Putin made a big angry deal about it, and now this stuff with the Kyrygz... I'm not so sure it's their "people" who want our military base gone, but rather Putin and their President. After all, military bases are always a big boon to any local economy, and for a small nation like theirs which is not exactly wealthy, kicking us out seems like a bad decision, economically speaking.

It just seems like Putin is trying to reform the old CCCP. And with Obama trying to make nicey-nice with all sides, Putin might just have a chance to do it. That's the mess.
Thanks for the info. Putin has a bit of the dictatorship in him, but does not do it overtly. I'm reminded of Georgia as an example, he must be itching at times to get back all the territories that formerly belonged to Russia. Possibly with so much activity of the US in Afghanistan, he is quite irritated by the US presence, so would like to send a clear message about this to Obama. Does not make sense however as you say, there were far more advantages to have been obtained about keeping the military bases intact. Wonder where the US will be relocating the bases?
Solon_Poledourus
deanhills wrote:
Wonder where the US will be relocating the bases?
This reminds me of my ever so brilliant idea of securing Iraq/Afghanistan.

We shut down all of our unnecessary bases; Germany, Italy, Japan, etc. Take all those troops out of places that we don't need them to be, and just flood Iraq with a 1 million man military presence. Lock down the borders, confiscate all weapons, document every single citizen, build criminal records, rebuild the infrastructure, train people for jobs, etc etc.

We could do it if we weren't paying soldiers to get drunk in Bavaria for a year at a time.
deanhills
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
deanhills wrote:
Wonder where the US will be relocating the bases?
This reminds me of my ever so brilliant idea of securing Iraq/Afghanistan.

We shut down all of our unnecessary bases; Germany, Italy, Japan, etc. Take all those troops out of places that we don't need them to be, and just flood Iraq with a 1 million man military presence. Lock down the borders, confiscate all weapons, document every single citizen, build criminal records, rebuild the infrastructure, train people for jobs, etc etc.

We could do it if we weren't paying soldiers to get drunk in Bavaria for a year at a time.
They still need a good base for Afghanistan however. Russia's loss is going to be someone else's good luck. Wonder which country it's going to be.
ocalhoun
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
deanhills wrote:
Wonder where the US will be relocating the bases?
This reminds me of my ever so brilliant idea of securing Iraq/Afghanistan.

We shut down all of our unnecessary bases; Germany, Italy, Japan, etc. Take all those troops out of places that we don't need them to be, and just flood Iraq with a 1 million man military presence. Lock down the borders, confiscate all weapons, document every single citizen, build criminal records, rebuild the infrastructure, train people for jobs, etc etc.

We could do it if we weren't paying soldiers to get drunk in Bavaria for a year at a time.

Brilliant, perhaps, but only in the short term. In the long term, we loose the global presence that makes the USA's military great.
Solon_Poledourus
ocalhoun wrote:
Brilliant, perhaps, but only in the short term. In the long term, we loose the global presence that makes the USA's military great.
Yeah, it would have to be for about a year, no more. But I think it might do the job.
deanhills wrote:
They still need a good base for Afghanistan however. Russia's loss is going to be someone else's good luck. Wonder which country it's going to be.
If we enact my plan, we could have a 1 million soldier military based in Iraq. Not too far from Afghanistan.
ocalhoun
deanhills wrote:
They still need a good base for Afghanistan however. Russia's loss is going to be someone else's good luck. Wonder which country it's going to be.
If we enact my plan, we could have a 1 million soldier military based in Iraq. Not too far from Afghanistan.[/quote]
Actually, a permanent base in Iraq (despite the political ramifications) would be a great thing to have.
Two purposes:
1- Keep a reserve force to back up Iraq's own army and police if they come up against something they can't handle.
2- Serve as a forward staging area to Afghanistan.
(3- Be a reserve force in place in case any quick action is required in the local region.)
Solon_Poledourus
ocalhoun wrote:
Actually, a permanent base in Iraq (despite the political ramifications) would be a great thing to have.
Two purposes:
1- Keep a reserve force to back up Iraq's own army and police if they come up against something they can't handle.
2- Serve as a forward staging area to Afghanistan.
(3- Be a reserve force in place in case any quick action is required in the local region.)
I firmly believe that at least one of our bases there will remain as "permanent". I just think that it needs a substantially larger force in order to stabilize the situation. When Patraeus mentioned the need for a "surge", I agreed, but I think 10,000 or whatever the amount was, is insufficient. No need for a Marine base in Italy, for example. At least not now. As well with Germany and a few other places. Yank those guys out, spend a year or two overwhelming Iraq with a stabilizing force, then leave a sizable permanent base there for the reasons you stated.
deanhills
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
Brilliant, perhaps, but only in the short term. In the long term, we loose the global presence that makes the USA's military great.
Yeah, it would have to be for about a year, no more. But I think it might do the job.
deanhills wrote:
They still need a good base for Afghanistan however. Russia's loss is going to be someone else's good luck. Wonder which country it's going to be.
If we enact my plan, we could have a 1 million soldier military based in Iraq. Not too far from Afghanistan.
That is too far from Afghanistan, and it is not an alternate plan as there is already a presence in Iraq. In addition, a strategic military base has to be more valuable than an existing base with additional numbers of troops.
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