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When does crisis will be end ?





falacal
When does crisis will be end ?
Mad
Arseniy
There was an article in the newspaper I read yesterday saying that crisis will run to its end in approximately five years. But our beloved politics promise that in year or one and a half they'll get rid of it. Let's see...
ocalhoun
What crisis? Sure, the news and politicians keep incessantly talking about some economic crisis, but I haven't seen any evidence for it personally. Perhaps its all just made up?
bloodrider
lol, I'm thinking that too!
They talk about the crisis everyday on TV but until today I'm not that affected by it, neither any of my friends or relatives are affected by it.
Maybe we're just lucky Razz
liljp617
ocalhoun wrote:
What crisis? Sure, the news and politicians keep incessantly talking about some economic crisis, but I haven't seen any evidence for it personally. Perhaps its all just made up?


Elaborate please.
ocalhoun
liljp617 wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
What crisis? Sure, the news and politicians keep incessantly talking about some economic crisis, but I haven't seen any evidence for it personally. Perhaps its all just made up?


Elaborate please.

Well, simply if not for the media and politicians repeatedly telling me that we are in the middle of a huge financial crisis, I would never have noticed.
I don't know anybody who's lost their job (who wouldn't have lost it anyway), I haven't had any personal financial problems (I'm doing better than ever), and I just bought a $15,000 truck and got the whole thing financed without any problem at all, with multiple banks competing to give me a loan just barely over the inflation rate.

Though it seems like the news (even local news) and the politicians talk about nothing else, I haven't noticed it at all.
kirba
They made up the crisis

Few people from Wall Street said there is a crisis, every TV station, newspaper, web site published it, people got scared and now we are here, with so called "crisis".
liljp617
ocalhoun wrote:
liljp617 wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
What crisis? Sure, the news and politicians keep incessantly talking about some economic crisis, but I haven't seen any evidence for it personally. Perhaps its all just made up?


Elaborate please.

Well, simply if not for the media and politicians repeatedly telling me that we are in the middle of a huge financial crisis, I would never have noticed.
I don't know anybody who's lost their job (who wouldn't have lost it anyway), I haven't had any personal financial problems (I'm doing better than ever), and I just bought a $15,000 truck and got the whole thing financed without any problem at all, with multiple banks competing to give me a loan just barely over the inflation rate.

Though it seems like the news (even local news) and the politicians talk about nothing else, I haven't noticed it at all.


That doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

I don't personally know anyone who has lost their job either and I'm not struggling to get by.

But there are clearly many, many people out of work and more people than usual struggling paycheck to paycheck. There are clearly a good number of well-known businesses declaring bankruptcy and struggling financially. There are clearly many people having their homes foreclosed. There are clearly financial problems occurring worldwide.

It's not like recessions are an unseen phenomenon Razz
snedan
as soon as states decide to invade some next country. Every economic crisis gets resolved with war. So yes pack up your bags and get ready for some fun.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
What crisis? Sure, the news and politicians keep incessantly talking about some economic crisis, but I haven't seen any evidence for it personally. Perhaps its all just made up?
That is exactly my take on it too. The big investment banks had toxic debts that implicated their large investors (probably including high-up Government officials), and the bail-out was for those people. In order to sell the bail-out, they did a thorough fearmongering campaign, using the media who were hungry for stuff like this. All of the crisis is COMPLETELY untransparent. I have yet to see a list of the toxic debts, nor a list or profiling of the people who were in danger of losing their investments with the big investment banks. There is also no transparency at all with how the bail out is proceeding right at this moment. Evil or Very Mad
fx-trading-education
As evidence for crisis Iwould say also that you can get cheaper price specially for "costly" things like cars or houses. The prices have drop and we get so many offers from the car manufacturers !

The profits and losses shown by the companies are also much worse than some time ago.
It doesn't mean that it affects everybody, and of course every crisis represent opportunities as well but generally speaking the economical situation is not good.

How long it will continue, nobody knows because the psychological effects on economy are important. SO it maybe 1 year or 5 years. Personnaly I would think a not very long period (1-2 years max) as the cycles are somehow faster now.
ocalhoun
liljp617 wrote:


That doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

True, but it does mean it might be...

Despite all the hype, I've yet to find anyone who claims to know anyone who has really been hurt by the crisis, and isn't just blaming the crisis for something that could very easily have happened before the 'crisis' ever started. I was expecting a housing/banking bubble to pop long before this crisis started... It just seemed like common sense that people being ridiculously deep in debt and ever-climbing real-estate prices just couldn't go on forever.

Sure, there must be some truth to it, some stocks are going down (they do that sometimes), some banks screwed up, and big companies are having layoffs (didn't anybody else notice that happening before the 'crisis', too?). But I suspect that the whole thing is very overblown and exaggerated, and to some degree its perpetuated by the doom-and-gloom messages coming from the media and Washington.
Its a little disturbing really, watching either local, national, or world news, I notice that the news people make a determined effort to tie nearly every story they run to the 'economic crisis' somehow. (After all, the economic crisis is big news, so if your story is related to it, your story is also big news, right?) And then politicians are playing up the crisis so that they can get support for their old pet projects, which they frame up as innovative solutions to the crisis.
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
liljp617 wrote:


That doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

True, but it does mean it might be...

Despite all the hype, I've yet to find anyone who claims to know anyone who has really been hurt by the crisis, and isn't just blaming the crisis for something that could very easily have happened before the 'crisis' ever started. I was expecting a housing/banking bubble to pop long before this crisis started... It just seemed like common sense that people being ridiculously deep in debt and ever-climbing real-estate prices just couldn't go on forever.

Sure, there must be some truth to it, some stocks are going down (they do that sometimes), some banks screwed up, and big companies are having layoffs (didn't anybody else notice that happening before the 'crisis', too?). But I suspect that the whole thing is very overblown and exaggerated, and to some degree its perpetuated by the doom-and-gloom messages coming from the media and Washington.
Its a little disturbing really, watching either local, national, or world news, I notice that the news people make a determined effort to tie nearly every story they run to the 'economic crisis' somehow. (After all, the economic crisis is big news, so if your story is related to it, your story is also big news, right?) And then politicians are playing up the crisis so that they can get support for their old pet projects, which they frame up as innovative solutions to the crisis.
Exactly. There is no actual proof, and definitely not sufficient to justify 1.2-trillion bail-out. I am still amazed that that was allowed to happen without proper proof. At the very least I would have expected a Website dedicated to the employment of the 1.2-trillion as well as exactly who are benefitting by it. I am really amazed that there are people who take issue with religion on the basis of asking people to only accept factual evidence, and then when it gets to this have faith in their Government and trust that the Government is doing the right thing, instead of insisting on factual evidence and factual reports. Sort of boggles the mind completely. I would like to see a Website with a list of the Investment Banks that have been bailed out, what their toxic debts are, and what amount of monies they have received, how it will be paid back, and how it will be benefitting the US tax payers directly. If Obama can dedicate a Website to himself, perhaps he can have one dedicated to the 1.2-trillion bail out package consisting of 100% facts and responsible factual updates of expenditures that have been made against the 1.2-trillion dollars and exactly who are benefitting by it. Twisted Evil
lagoon
Here in Britain the FTSE tumbled, and almost 1 million more people are out of work compared to this time last year.
deanhills
lagoon wrote:
Here in Britain the FTSE tumbled, and almost 1 million more people are out of work compared to this time last year.
The FTSE was never high to start with. And the economy in Britian was not as healthy and robust as its equivalent in the United States and Europe before the bubble burst. I may be wrong, but I have a suspicion that people in Britain were investing more on the United States stock exchanges than the FTSE. But yes, the FTSE did take a tumble and probably Brown is happy for it, as obviously he now has a good excuse why Britain's economy is in the doldrums. Twisted Evil
Phinx
The crisis is quite existent. It depends on how strong a countries economy is and how dependent it is on trade. Just check how many mobile companies have suffered losses. Even though Motorola never has been in the top spots, it still maintained some part of market and now it had to cut its staff by 50 percent. Nokia and Samsung also got a punch. Even Intel is seeing some losses. It's there alright. The weaker countries, like my homeland Lithuania is feeling it especially well, being economically quite week it can not provide people with proper living conditions. As i mentioned the prove for crisis are usually international companies, who will loose money in countries affected by the crisis, thus having a lower income compared to the end of 2007/beginning of 2008.
deanhills
I'm still thoroughly confused about what the crisis was about! Banks burnt their fingers, and got bailed out, and just heard that some Banks say they need more money for further bail-outs.
Triple_7
Some depends on your location really. But yes it does exist, is it as bad as they claim...yes and no. Its hit hard here in my area, I moved to this little town in 2003 and it was booming with factories, anyone who wanted a job had one. Now, there's only a couple left, and the biggest one only employs about 50 people. A couple just simply went under, the rest moved out of the country, one of the biggest employed some 500 people, but a couple years ago it moved to Mexico, and then China. Now in my mind wouldn't it have been cheaper to just keep it here instead of spending millions to move it south and then turn around a year later and move it to Asia Confused

Our biggest thing left is farming, which has taken a huge hit, many of the family farms have went under and no longer exist. I just lost my job at a hog farm this past week. It was already on the brink of closing down anyways, but what finally tipped it off, this whole media paranoia about the "Swine Flu" Before that whole mess started we were running full capacity, approximately 10,000 head at any given time, still not making a profit and there was talks from the boss about shutting down. This "Swine Flu" scare, that has nothing to do with hogs except the name, ran hog prices into the ground even farther, right at the time we were shipping some 7,500 out, financial hit was to much and forced to shut down.

Truly, a crisis was in the works due to a reckless government, but the media played a huge roll in making it a lot worse putting fear into people. Without the media hype about every little problem a lot of things would not have happened, or at least not so quickly.

I've been job searching for nearly a year simply because I needed a change, as well as the high probability the farm was going to close down within this year. There isn't a job to be found here, not one. I've filled out so many applications in the last few months to drive anyone insane, I've only heard back from one, and they said it was unlikely but they would keep me in mind should an opening pop up.

Unemployment is a joke, I filed and got rejected...twice. Their reasoning, I was working on a "Farm" therefor it was exempt from paying into the fund, so I couldn't draw anything. I paid my taxes, I feel I should at least get something Mad Now I have no income at all, selling anything and everything not needed just to get by, quickly running out of stuff to sell when everyone else is in similar situations and cant afford anything. Looking into jobs out of state simply to find something, I've turned up nothing so far, every employer is being to picky because there is so many people in the pool to choose from.

To give an idea of how openly bad things are here, a factory that makes medical items, such as artificial knees etc, had 30 openings recently. They pay $10 start, which here is pretty decent. Between online applications, walk-ins, and their little job fair they hosted. Grand total in the 25,000 application range in a 2 week period. For 30 openings Shocked Mine was one of those, needless to say, not a bit of luck, odds of winning the state lottery are better Rolling Eyes

Things started going downhill when gas prices started climbing to insane levels a few years ago, since then the media hype causing paranoia, and a worthless government have just driven everything this country had into the ground. Spending trillions of dollars bailing out banks and huge corporations will do absolutly nothing, that's already been proved yet our government continues to push it. If they would give that money to the people who actually need it things would start to turn around, throwing billions into a large bank so they can give out millions of it in bonuses and vacations is not helping anybody. But as its been for some time now, the rich get richer, the poor people that are actually the backbone of this country get driven into the ground...don't here that one in the media now do you Mad
LumberJack
It depends on an awful lot of things. Banks and creditors, consumers, suppliers, and a whole load of other things outside our control.

Time will fix this. How long is indeed the question. It all depends on policies, peoples expectations, how much money people have, etc.
deanhills
LumberJack wrote:
It depends on an awful lot of things. Banks and creditors, consumers, suppliers, and a whole load of other things outside our control.

Time will fix this. How long is indeed the question. It all depends on policies, peoples expectations, how much money people have, etc.
This sounds as vague as the crisis itself. What crisis? Would appear the only "crisis" is one that the politicians are selling in order to get 1.2-trillion in bail-out monies in the United States? All of that vague too. Twisted Evil
Phinx
Well it does have different manifestations. As mentioned, in my homeland prices are sky high (never been that low, but now they ludicrous) on everything, and wages are steady as rocks. Health care is going nowhere, quite a few of people i knew are out of job and quite of few have unpaid bills and they tend to pile up if you don't take pay them.
dickyzin
I reckon it will take at least a couple more years for the world economy to start picking up. The world leaders are doing their best for a quick recovery so hopefully it should improve in the next two to three years. I won't happen overnight or even by next year. Most countries are still feeling the after shocks.
steve1200
[quote="bloodrider"lol, I'm thinking that too!
They talk about the crisis everyday on TV but until today I'm not that affected by it, neither any of my friends or relatives are affected by it.
Maybe we're just lucky Razz[/quote]

I think you're right. It's the same in my surface. ^^
Solon_Poledourus
I think closing 1,000 Chrysler dealerships nationwide counts as a symptom of a crisis. I live in Florida, I know plenty of people who have been screwed by this crisis. I barely got out of the housing market by the skin of my teeth. It's real, if you don't see it, then consider yourself lucky.
ocalhoun
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
I think closing 1,000 Chrysler dealerships nationwide counts as a symptom of a crisis.

Chrysler dealerships closing is a symptom of them making crappy cars and being hampered by unions, and would eventually happen crisis or no crisis, unless drastic changes were made to the company.

If you'll recall, American car companies were struggling long before this crisis.
jmi256
ocalhoun wrote:
Solon_Poledourus wrote:
I think closing 1,000 Chrysler dealerships nationwide counts as a symptom of a crisis.

Chrysler dealerships closing is a symptom of them making crappy cars and being hampered by unions, and would eventually happen crisis or no crisis, unless drastic changes were made to the company.

If you'll recall, American car companies were struggling long before this crisis.


I agree. I see a lot of companies using the "crisis" as a reason to justify their crappy business plans, products, management, performance, etc. In reality this time represents a great opportunity for the American economy to lose the stragglers and under-performing companies, but Obama and the Dems propping up these companies with taxpayer money is not allowing the economy to function correctly.

In reality, if these companies were able to provide valuable goods and services at competitive prices, they would be ok. Some factors, such as unions driving costs up and overall poor quality, aren't going away just because the taxpayers are footing the bill, and I would argue that these factors are more likely to continue due to the bailouts. Even after the taxpayer money runs out, the cars will still be crappy and the quality will still be low for the price. I for one am still unlikely to buy a GM car, and I think a lot of people feel the same way.
deanhills
So now if they can bail out banks for exactly the same reason, having done bad business with "toxic" results, why can't they bail out Chrystler too? Ramifications for allowing Chrystler to go down the tubes are the same, except of course that will effect more powerless people? The Banks had those fancy CEO's and fancy economists who could persuade Government and people that a Depression worse than the thirties was looming! Twisted Evil

There should never have been a bail out in the first place. But now that there has been one, perhaps the Government needs to assist all other big business too? When he was campaigning for the bank bail out, Obama was playing on sentiment, i.e. in the national interest. Closing dealerships nation wide will definitely impact the national interest too.
dickyzin
Australia never got into a technical recession, negative growth for two consecutive quarters, because they had positive growth in the last quarter. The government's quick stimulus packages for the people spend can get some credit for this. Although it seems like the crisis is at the bottom and the worst has gone, the world economy is still very vulnerable and could still slip not managed well. I think it's still a long way for a full recovery.
Cliffer
the crisis won't be end before human's greed ends. it always be again and again.....no end.
deanhills
Cliffer wrote:
the crisis won't be end before human's greed ends. it always be again and again.....no end.
Good summary. Greed has to be at the bottom of the crisis, and fuelling greed with 1.2-trillion US$. Twisted Evil
ocalhoun
deanhills wrote:
Cliffer wrote:
the crisis won't be end before human's greed ends. it always be again and again.....no end.
Good summary. Greed has to be at the bottom of the crisis, and fuelling greed with 1.2-trillion US$. Twisted Evil

Yeah, I have yet to implement my plan...
1: Start a bank. (with no starting funds)
2: Lend money to as many people as possible
3: Fail, because of having no funds
4: Get bailed out by the government

The perfect get rich quick scheme ^.^
deanhills
ocalhoun wrote:
Yeah, I have yet to implement my plan...
1: Start a bank. (with no starting funds)
2: Lend money to as many people as possible
3: Fail, because of having no funds
4: Get bailed out by the government

The perfect get rich quick scheme ^.^
Laughing Laughing Laughing This is really an excellent one. Right on the number for me. Laughing Laughing Laughing
dickyzin
The current financial crisis may have ended but there's a new question of when the next one is. I've read that the next crash is on the way with Dubai's bad debts. Maybe a wise time to save up and prepare. Razz
deanhills
dickyzin wrote:
The current financial crisis may have ended but there's a new question of when the next one is. I've read that the next crash is on the way with Dubai's bad debts. Maybe a wise time to save up and prepare. Razz
Dubai has been a large bubble in real estate money and maybe is symbolic of the bail out in the United States, that may still have a chance of leading to a further "crash". The Government in the UAE bailed out Dubai Real Estate to a significant tune, so probably instead of "buckling in", they continued to party. Ditto in New York. Think Ocalhoun gave a very good picture of "get rich quick" by bailing out Banks and who get to profit the most. I think in essence the problem was made larger, not solved in that people used this as an opportunity to get rich and those banks got to prosper at the expense of those who failed.
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