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Math Question - win loss





slashnburn99
Hi

If there are five options as below

Loss
Loss
Loss
Loss
Win

Are the odds on winning 4-1 or 5 -1

I`m thinking it`s 5-1
Bikerman
Correct - 1 in 5 (or probability 0.2).
Think of a six sided dice - the chance of rolling a (say) 6 is 1 in 6.

(Remember, of course, that we a are talking about an event that has 4 winning solutions and 1 losing solution and each has an equal probability. We are NOT talking about an event that has a win/loss outcome and which has returned the previous results LLLLW - the probability there would be exactly the same for each entry, just as throwing 4 tails in a row doesn't change the probability of a heads next time - it is still 0.5 or 1 in 2)
slashnburn99
Bikerman thanks alot for the answer, exactly what i needed

Cheers
Bikerman
Here's a teaser for you.
Suppose I tell you that I could very quickly (within a few minutes) produce a person who had flipped a coin ten times successively, and got the answer right (heads or tails) every single time. Suppose I offered a 10 bet...would you take it?
(The coins are completely fair - no tricks).
ocalhoun
Bikerman wrote:
Here's a teaser for you.
Suppose I tell you that I could very quickly (within a few minutes) produce a person who had flipped a coin ten times successively, and got the answer right (heads or tails) every single time. Suppose I offered a 10 bet...would you take it?
(The coins are completely fair - no tricks).

I'll take that bet, and what's more, I'll double it, if you agree to that. (Though I would become extremely suspicious of some trick...)
truespeed
Bikerman wrote:
Here's a teaser for you.
Suppose I tell you that I could very quickly (within a few minutes) produce a person who had flipped a coin ten times successively, and got the answer right (heads or tails) every single time. Suppose I offered a 10 bet...would you take it?
(The coins are completely fair - no tricks).


Darren Brown?
Bikerman
ocalhoun wrote:
Bikerman wrote:
Here's a teaser for you.
Suppose I tell you that I could very quickly (within a few minutes) produce a person who had flipped a coin ten times successively, and got the answer right (heads or tails) every single time. Suppose I offered a 10 bet...would you take it?
(The coins are completely fair - no tricks).

I'll take that bet, and what's more, I'll double it, if you agree to that. (Though I would become extremely suspicious of some trick...)

OK...I accept your bet (you can pay me in FRIH$).
Here's how I would do it - I leave you to decide whether you should pay up Smile

I line 1024 people up in pairs - each pair has a coin. The 512 pairs then toss and the loser goes out. The winners then form up into pairs and repeat (in other words we organise a simple pairs knock-out tournament).
At the end of 10 rounds we have a winner who has guessed correctly 10 times consecutively.

Nice innit Smile

There is a serious point to this - this example of competition producing almost unbelievable 'luck' is a very good way to refute creationists when they talk about the 'impossibility' of 'blind chance' producing biological complexity and apparent design.
ocalhoun
Bikerman wrote:
ocalhoun wrote:
Bikerman wrote:
Here's a teaser for you.
Suppose I tell you that I could very quickly (within a few minutes) produce a person who had flipped a coin ten times successively, and got the answer right (heads or tails) every single time. Suppose I offered a 10 bet...would you take it?
(The coins are completely fair - no tricks).

I'll take that bet, and what's more, I'll double it, if you agree to that. (Though I would become extremely suspicious of some trick...)

OK...I accept your bet (you can pay me in FRIH$).
Here's how I would do it - I leave you to decide whether you should pay up Smile

I line 1024 people up in pairs - each pair has a coin. The 512 pairs then toss and the loser goes out. The winners then form up into pairs and repeat (in other words we organise a simple pairs knock-out tournament).
At the end of 10 rounds we have a winner who has guessed correctly 10 times consecutively.


... <.<
Well, three problems:
1: You'd actually have to try it. Statistically, there should be a winner who guesses them all right, but in reality, there's nothing stopping both of the last two contestants from being wrong on the last guess (1/4 chance), or some similar misfortune.
2: I'd like to see you try to round up 1024 people willing to cooperate ^.^
3: What's the conversion rate between pounds and frih$ anyway?
Bikerman
No, it is a statistical CERTAINTY that there will be a winner*. Each individual pair will have one who calls heads and one who calls tails (you can use any method you like to determine which - the normal protocol is for one person to toss and the other to get first call). At the end of 10 rounds there will CERTAINLY be one person who called right 10 times....

*If we exclude the statistically possible but extremely unlikely event of the coin landing on the edge. This would, in any case, be a non result and would require a re-toss.

PS - conversion from pounds to FRIH$: since I can buy 3 Mars bars for 1 then we have to calculate how many Mars bars I can get for my 1 FRIH$. The answer is dependant on having a market, which we don't seem to have. Therefore there is no fixed answer - I'll therefore accept a 1:1 conversion rate Smile
(Only joking, by the way - I've already got far too many FRIH$ Smile )
ocalhoun
Bikerman wrote:
No, it is a statistical CERTAINTY that there will be a winner*. Each individual pair will have one who calls heads and one who calls tails (you can use any method you like to determine which - the normal protocol is for one person to toss and the other to get first call). At the end of 10 rounds there will CERTAINLY be one person who called right 10 times....

Oh, I was thinking that each person would have their own coin...
Bikerman
ocalhoun wrote:
Bikerman wrote:
No, it is a statistical CERTAINTY that there will be a winner*. Each individual pair will have one who calls heads and one who calls tails (you can use any method you like to determine which - the normal protocol is for one person to toss and the other to get first call). At the end of 10 rounds there will CERTAINLY be one person who called right 10 times....

Oh, I was thinking that each person would have their own coin...

Ahh...I see. Nope, the assumption is a standard knock-out competition.
It is actually a very powerful idea even though it seems very obvious. It explains, for example, how evolution can quickly converge on an appropriate 'solution' to an environmental problem. Simply substitute a particular adaptation for luck....
Dark_Pegasus
it's must be 20% for wining propability for your question.
Gagnar The Unruly
slashnburn99 wrote:
Hi

If there are five options as below

Loss
Loss
Loss
Loss
Win

Are the odds on winning 4-1 or 5 -1

I`m thinking it`s 5-1


The odds are 1:4 on winning. The probability of winning is 1/5 (or 0.200).

Odds are always expressed as the likelihood ratio of each possible outcome, and the probability is expressed as the likelihood of one outcome divided by the total likelihood of all possible outcomes.
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